Offseason MLB Moves That Look Like Steals 2 Months into 2016

Andrew Gould@AndrewGould4X.com LogoFeatured ColumnistMay 25, 2016

Offseason MLB Moves That Look Like Steals 2 Months into 2016

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    After almost signing with the Baltimore Orioles, Dexter Fowler is dominating on a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs.
    After almost signing with the Baltimore Orioles, Dexter Fowler is dominating on a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs.Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

    We're nearly two months into the 2016 MLB season, and several under-the-radar offseason moves have paid huge dividends beyond reasonable expectations.

    With the way clubs spend for top talent, a star free agent will virtually never become a bargain. Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija are pitching like aces after shaky 2015 seasons, but the San Francisco Giants paid them accordingly.

    Yet a surprising amount of one-year deals are proving tremendously successful for both parties. After teams responded to their availability with crickets, these players have repaired their value with sizzling starts. Now, they're poised to attract more suitors this winter.

    Some trades have shown to be lopsided, especially two involving breakout young pitchers who are under team control for years. Those kinds of players aren't typically cheap or easy to find.

    Most of what have turned out to be the biggest offseason maneuvers drew little fanfare at the time. But they're causing front offices to take a victory lap.

Honorable Mentions

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    Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker have given the New York Mets a potent power punch.
    Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker have given the New York Mets a potent power punch.Tony Dejak/Associated Press

    Yoenis Cespedes to the New York Mets (Three Years, $75 Million with 2016 Opt-Out)

    It's hard to classify $25 million as a steal, but Yoenis Cespedes is giving the New York Mets their money's worth with an MLB-best 15 home runs. Don't expect the outfielder to settle for another short-term extension if/when he opts out this winter.

    Neil Walker to the New York Mets (Traded for SP Jon Niese)

    The Mets had no room in their rotation for Jon Niese, who has posted a 4.75 ERA with the Pittsburgh Pirates. They did well by flipping him for second baseman Neil Walker, who has already accrued 11 homers.

    Walker, however, is ice cold in May. Also, a certain other second baseman associated with the Mets is doing pretty well.

    Marco Estrada to the Toronto Blue Jays (Two Years, $26 Million)

    Marco Estrada's 2015 peripherals hinted at a decline to come, but the Toronto Blue Jays brought him back anyway. The 32-year-old has improved instead of regressing, recording a 2.61 ERA in eight starts.

    In this starting pitcher market, that's a huge get for $13 million.

    Steve Pearce to the Tampa Bay Rays (One Year, $4.75 Million)

    For the low price of $4.75 million, Steve Pearce is batting .303/.402/.545 with seven homers for the Tampa Bay Rays. The veteran has more walks (16) than strikeouts (13) and offers defensive versatility in the infield.

    With Logan Forsythe injured, the Rays will rely on him to help as more than a lefty-destroying specialist.

    John Jaso to the Pittsburgh Pirates (Two Years, $8 Million)

    He's not a typical first baseman, but he has replaced the polar-opposite Pedro Alvarez wonderfully for the Pirates. The 32-year-old, who has never logged more than 404 plate appearances in a season, is batting .306/.376/.456 as Pittsburgh's starter and leadoff hitter against right-handed pitchers.

    Everyone Who Traded with the Cincinnati Reds

    Nobody obtained for Todd Frazier or Aroldis Chapman looks like a future difference-maker for the Cincinnati Reds. In all fairness, the Chicago White Sox had to surrender Trayce Thompson in order to net Frazier's 14 homers. Only one problem: He went to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who stole the promising outfielder at little cost.

    Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair to the Atlanta Braves (Traded for SP Shelby Miller)

    This feels like cheating. After all, everyone at the time knew the Atlanta Braves had robbed the Arizona Diamondbacks.

    Now it's even more obvious. Shelby Miller has unraveled in his new home, brandishing a horrid 7.09 ERA with 29 walks and 30 strikeouts.

    Dansby Swanson, last year's No. 1 overall amateur draft pick, is cruising through Atlanta's farm system. The 22-year-old shortstop is hitting .316/.409/.503 between Single-A and Double-A, putting him on track to make the Diamondbacks look even more foolish when he gets an MLB promotion as soon as this summer.

Fernando Rodney to the San Diego Padres

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    Fernando Rodney has yet to allow an earned run this season.
    Fernando Rodney has yet to allow an earned run this season.Andy Hayt/Getty Images

    Contract: One Year, $2 Million (Plus $2 Million 2017 Club Option)

    Nobody can blame the 29 other teams for passing on Fernando Rodney. After authoring a 4.74 ERA in 2015, the veteran didn't look like a considerable upgrade over any no-name reliever clubs can find on the scrap heap or in the farm.

    After trading Craig Kimbrel to the Boston Red Sox, the San Diego Padres rostered no obvious late-inning options. So, they signed Rodney to a $2 million deal with a $2 million club option for 2017. He has repaid their trust by not allowing an earned run in 18 innings.

    This isn't the 2012 Rodney who registered a 0.60 ERA with 9.2 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings. The 39-year-old has already issued eight free passes, but he has also relinquished only eight hits. A minuscule .195 BABIP has helped offset his wild side.

    In fairness, he has partially made his own good luck by generating a 57.5 ground-ball percentage and 17.1 hard-hit rate. Though Rodney will eventually allow runs, he's looking like a savvy investment whom the Padres can either shop this summer or retain on the cheap for another year.

Mark Trumbo to the Baltimore Orioles

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    Mark Trumbo has launched 13 home runs for the Baltimore Orioles.
    Mark Trumbo has launched 13 home runs for the Baltimore Orioles.Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

    Trade: 1B/OF Mark Trumbo and RP C.J. Riefenhauser to the Baltimore Orioles; C Steve Clevenger to the Seattle Mariners

    In hindsight, it's especially curious the Seattle Mariners jettisoned Mark Trumbo for so little. Even in a down year in 2015, the slugger churned out 22 home runs—including 13 after the Mariners acquired him from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

    As Seattle's backup catcher, Steve Clevenger is hitting .175/.233/.250. He has seven hits. Trumbo has 13 home runs alongside a .282/.333/.553 slash line.

    His .337 batting average in April has predictably declined, but he has still belted seven long balls in May. A low-contact pulverizer is more in line with what the Baltimore Orioles should have expected.

    Sure, he's a mess in right field and rarely takes a walk. Folks would have overrated him a decade ago, but that's no longer the case—the Orioles obtained him and reliever C.J. Riefenhauser for Clevenger.

    Five-tool players are great, but 30-homer behemoths also serve their purpose. At this rate, Trumbo could top his career high of 34 long balls as Baltimore fights for first in the crowded American League East.

Rich Hill to the Oakland Athletics

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    Rich Hill has sustained last September's career renaissance into 2016.
    Rich Hill has sustained last September's career renaissance into 2016.Associated Press

    Contract: One Year, $6 Million

    As most baseball enthusiasts have probably noticed, free-agent pitchers cost a lot of money. When Mike Leake gets an $80 million deal, it's nearly impossible to locate bargain hurlers on the open market.

    The Oakland Athletics, however, did just that by gambling on an extremely small sample size.

    From 2010 to 2014, Rich Hill pitched a combined 75.2 innings, mostly as an erratic reliever. Yet he compiled four stellar starts last September, allowing five runs while collecting 36 strikeouts in 29 innings for the Boston Red Sox. Considering he last offered value as an MLB starter in 2007, few teams bit.

    Without the resources to sign a star, Oakland took a low-risk, high-reward flier on the 36-year-old southpaw. He has already given the A's their money's worth, submitting a 2.18 ERA, 2.71 FIP and 10.1 K/9.

    "Every game he goes out there, we feel we're going to win, no matter what we're going through," Oakland manager Bob Melvin told the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser after Hill tossed eight scoreless frames against the Seattle Mariners on Monday. "He brings a lot of intensity to the mound, a lot of fight."

    Even if he regresses, the Athletics are playing with house money. For $6 million, they got an All-Star candidate to sell before the trade deadline.

Ian Desmond to the Texas Rangers

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    A seemingly odd fit at first, Ian Desmond has become an indispensable outfielder for the Texas Rangers.
    A seemingly odd fit at first, Ian Desmond has become an indispensable outfielder for the Texas Rangers.Associated Press

    Contract: One Year, $8 Million

    The market for Ian Desmond dried up so much that he settled for about half of the $15.8 million qualifying offer he rejected from the Washington Nationals. He also went to the Texas Rangers, who already had an established starting shortstop in Elvis Andrus.

    Adding Desmond didn't make much sense for Texas on paper, but even if he was seemingly keeping left field warm for Nomar Mazara or Joey Gallo, there was nothing for it to lose besides $8 million.

    Almost two months into 2016, Rangers president of baseball operations and general manager Jon Daniels looks like a genius for realizing there's no such thing as too many options. A week into the season, Shin-Soo Choo went on the disabled list, where he again landed one game after his return. Delino DeShields faltered his way into a demotion.

    Even with Mazara active and producing, Texas now needs Desmond, who is hitting .287/.342/.466 with six homers, nine steals and a team-high 1.9 WAR. After committing 27 errors at shortstop last season, he has made four in the outfield.

    While he missed out on money by declining the qualifying offer, Desmond will reclaim those lost wages soon. If he keeps playing a capable center field, he'll also enjoy a much livelier free-agent market this winter.

Dexter Fowler to the Chicago Cubs

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    Dexter Fowler has produced MVP-caliber numbers for the Chicago Cubs.
    Dexter Fowler has produced MVP-caliber numbers for the Chicago Cubs.Associated Press

    Contract: One Year, $13 Million (Plus $9 Million 2017 Mutual Option)

    The Chicago Cubs and Dexter Fowler looked certain to part ways over the winter. Signing Jason Heyward seemingly filled their outfield, and they also emptied their pockets for Ben Zobrist and John Lackey.

    And, oh yeah, Fowler signed with the Baltimore Orioles. Or so we thought. In March, he told Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com why the agreement fell apart.

    "We never really were close," Fowler said. "They wanted me to pay them what they said the draft choice I was costing them was valued at. They wanted me to pay them for the pick. So we said, 'OK, then give me an opt-out after one year,' and they said that's something they won't do."

    Look on the bright side, Baltimore. The center fielder is hitting only .321/.437/.531 with an NL-best 3.0 WAR for Chicago. Instead of a three-year deal with an opt-out clause, the Cubs gave Fowler one year with a mutual option to extend their collaboration through 2017. It's safe to say Fowler won't stay for $9 million.

    With everyone rolling in Wrigley Field, Fowler's amazing start has been lost in the shuffle. Yet with Kyle Schwarber out for the season and Jorge Soler struggling mightily, the veteran has transitioned from a discounted luxury to a saving grace.

Daniel Murphy to the Washington Nationals

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    Daniel Murphy has followed a stellar postseason with an MLB-best .392 batting average for the Washington Nationals.
    Daniel Murphy has followed a stellar postseason with an MLB-best .392 batting average for the Washington Nationals.Associated Press

    Contract: Three Years, $37.5 Million

    When Daniel Murphy fueled the New York Mets' run to the World Series with seven homers last October, the National League champions could have handed him a blank check as their way of saying thanks. Instead, they saw a second baseman with a shaky glove who had never hit 15 or more long balls in a single season.

    The Mets made no effort to sign him, and they weren't regretting their choice when newly acquired replacement Neil Walker slammed nine homers in April. Yet it hurts watching Murphy rake for their main competitor.

    After New York balked, the Washington Nationals signed Murphy for a reasonable three years and $37.5 million. At that price, they didn't need October Murphy to return. Rather than overpay because of his heroics, they spent fair market value on a then-.288/.331/.424 career hitter.

    Now, his playoff success doesn't look like a fluke. The 31-year-old is batting .392/.424/.620 with seven dingers and 14 doubles. In his last 109 games dating back to Aug. 1 and including the postseason, he has gone deep 22 times.

    He has benefited from a .410 BABIP, but Murphy can hit 100 points lower and still deliver Washington a solid return on its investment. Without him supporting Bryce Harper in an otherwise reeling batting order, the Nationals wouldn't be leading the Mets in the National League East.

Vince Velasquez (and Prospects) to the Philadelphia Phillies

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    One of five pitchers acquired for Ken Giles, Vince Velasquez has notched a 2.75 ERA for the Philadelphia Phillies.
    One of five pitchers acquired for Ken Giles, Vince Velasquez has notched a 2.75 ERA for the Philadelphia Phillies.Paul Sancya/Associated Press

    Trade: Pitchers Vince Velasquez, Mark Appel, Brett Oberholtzer, Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz to the Philadelphia Phillies; RP Ken Giles and INF Jonathan Arauz to the Houston Astros

    If the Houston Astros could get a do-over, they almost certainly wouldn't trade Vince Velasquez straight up for Ken Giles. Not only did the Philadelphia Phillies land the exchange's most valuable player, but they received four more pitching prospects for their troubles.

    Though Velasquez has cooled down during a rough May, the 23-year-old righty still wields a 2.75 ERA through nine starts with 61 strikeouts and 17 walks over 52.1 innings. Giles, on the other hand, is brandishing a 5.89 ERA after never receiving the ninth-inning distinction most simply assumed he'd get.

    The Astros should at least get better production from Giles, who hasn't allowed a run since May 5. His 3.01 SIERA points to his recent rebound sticking rather than his April showers. Even so, any reliever would have a hard time justifying the hefty package Houston gave Philadelphia.

    Mark Appel continues to struggle in Triple-A (4.46 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), but the 2013 No. 1 overall draft pick was no throw-in. Along with Velasquez's continued growth as a plus starter, Thomas Eshelman could vault this trade into a memorable steal. The 21-year-old righty has registered a 3.29 FIP in Single-A, amassing 47 punchouts and just 11 walks over 45.1 innings.

    The Phillies bolstered their farm system without harming the big league club. With Velasquez, Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff leading a stout young rotation as its prospect bounty matures in the minors, the franchise's future has shifted from bleak to bright.

Drew Pomeranz to the San Diego Padres

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    Back in a starting rotation, Drew Pomeranz has posted a 1.70 ERA for the San Diego Padres.
    Back in a starting rotation, Drew Pomeranz has posted a 1.70 ERA for the San Diego Padres.Associated Press

    Trade: SP Drew Pomeranz, RP Jose Torres and OF Jabari Blash to the San Diego Padres; 1B Yonder Alonso and RP Marc Rzepczynski to the Oakland Athletics

    The Oakland Athletics have had a rough time on the trade market lately. They moved Addison Russell for rental pitchers during a 2014 pennant push, only to lose the AL Wild Card Game and unload Josh Donaldson before his 2015 MVP campaign.

    Add another unsuccessful move to the pile. Drew Pomeranz showed life as a reliever to close the 2015 season, but the 27-year-old southpaw has never pitched 100 or more innings in a year in his career. Perhaps viewing the bullpen as his permanent home, the A's shipped him to the San Diego Padres for Yonder Alonso, another former first-round pick who never lived up to his billing.

    As Oakland's starting first baseman, Alonso is hitting an underwhelming .220/.275/.303 with one homer and a minus-0.5 WAR. Pomeranz, meanwhile, has welcomed the change of scenery by posting a 1.70 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 53 frames.

    Opponents are hitting .160 against him, and his microscopic ERA ranks third behind Jake Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw among qualified starters. What makes this an even bigger coup than the Rich Hill signing and other deals is that Pomeranz will remain arbitration eligible through the 2018 season.

    In his eagerness to expedite his team's progression, Padres executive vice president and general manager A.J. Preller made some questionable moves before the 2015 season. Even though his club sits in last place in the National League West, he bounced back with shrewd transactions, most notably snagging this premium young starter for pennies on the dollar.

    Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Contract information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.

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