TORONTO — It seems as if the Toronto Blue Jays started looking toward the playoffs the minute that their loss in the second game of Wednesday’s double-header became official. You can hold on to the misguided notion, if you want, that home-field advantage was lost by Mark Buehrle on Sunday but the truth is it was torched the night before when Roberto Osuna blew his third save. That mess Sunday? That was meaningless.
So bring on the post-season, Toronto … but not before we take a look at Major League Baseball’s post-season awards race. I’ll look at how the vote should go in each category, while making allowances for how it will go:
AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP
Let’s begin with one inalienable fact: as long as he plays this game, Mike Trout will enter each season as the consensus front-runner for American League MVP. Beating him, therefore, is going to be akin to taking the title belt away from a heavyweight champ — it will need to be done by knockout. In ‘olden days’ Josh Donaldson’s big edge in RBI would matter, but in these days of advanced statistics nobody’s going to penalize a hitter because he has come up short in a team statistic. In other words, it’s not Trout’s fault the team around him wasn’t good offensively. Donaldson lacks the knockout punch, except his team made the playoffs and if you’ve spent any time around the Toronto Blue Jays you know that he has had the biggest role in effecting culture change from Day 1. My gut says that Trout will win because the rest of the AL doesn’t know what we in Toronto know, but it will be close.
How I would vote: 1. Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays; 2. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim; 3. Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals
AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG AWARD
Wins are the pitcher’s version of RBI, of course — a statistic that says more about the team around you than your actual performance. And that’s about the only significant edge Dallas Keuchel of the Houston Astros has over David Price of the Blue Jays, which is why I think Price wins this – and should win it. Keuchel hit a bump in September; until then his dominance for baseball’s version of the ‘Little Engine That Could’ was one of the year’s best stories. But Price caught everybody’s fancy and made all the headlines after the trade deadline. I’m not certain this contest will be as close as some think.
How I would vote: 1. David Price, Blue Jays; 2. Dallas Keuchel, Astros; 3. Collin McHugh, Astros
AMERICAN LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
No. 1 draft pick joins surprise team and makes an instant impact, helping them into the post-season while providing premium offence out of the shortstop position. What’s not to like about Carlos Correa of the Astros? Nothing … except that while we were marvelling at him another shortstop blew him out of the water statistically. Francisco Lindor became the first Cleveland Indians rookie since Earl Averill (1929) to hit .300 with at least 10 steals, 10 home runs and 100 hits. His considerable edge in batting average trumps Correa’s edge in OPS.
How I would vote: 1. Francisco Lindor, Indians; 2. Carlos Correa, Astros; 3. Roberto Osuna, Blue Jays
AMERICAN LEAGUE MANAGER OF THE YEAR
Nobody thought the Astros would contend for a post-season berth until, maybe, 2017. Yet not only did they win a spot in the wild-card game, they also spent 139 days in first place in the AL West. So A.J. Hinch – whose team also set a record winning 16 interleague games, including an 8-1 record on the road, which should count if you’re one of those mistaken folks who think managing in the NL takes some kind of genius – ought to get the nod over Texas Rangers manager Jeff Bannister, who won a division title without Yu Darvish. There will be sentiment for the Minnesota Twins’ Paul Molitor as well, but sorry — third-place on my ballot goes to the New York Yankees’ Joe Girardi. A-Rod, and all that.
How I would vote: 1. A.J. Hinch, Astros; 2. Jeff Banister, Rangers; 3. Joe Girardi, Yankees.
NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP
Maybe the easiest award of them all: Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals has all the old-timey and new-fangled statistics to back up a runaway case as MVP in the NL, just missing out on the league batting title, too. In fact, the most interesting aspect of NL MVP voting will be how many pitchers get votes, because Zack Greinke of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers all had better years than Kershaw did last season when he won the NL MVP award. Kershaw’s 8.4 WAR was far and away the best of any NL pitcher – but, damn, Greinke’s earned-run average (1.66) is tough to overlook and Arrieta has been unhittable down the stretch.
How I would vote: 1. Bryce Harper, Nationals; 2. Zack Greinke, Dodgers; 3. Jake Arrieta, Cubs
NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG AWARD
Yeah, pretty much tipped my hand, didn’t I? So why go with Arrieta ahead of Kershaw? In Arrieta’s last 20 starts – all of which were quality starts – he went 16-1 (0.86) to help keep the Cubs in the tough NL Central race. He also broke the major-league record for best post-break ERA at 0.75. That’s over 82 years, folks.
How I would vote: 1. Zack Greinke, Dodgers; 2. Jake Arrieta, Cubs; 3. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
NATIONAL LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Not much doubt here. In fact, you can make the argument that Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant is deserving of MVP votes – and my guess is he will be comfortably included on several NL ballots. In major league history, only one other player reached Bryant’s level in rookie home runs, RBI (I know, I know), doubles, runs scored and walks. That was Ted Williams, and that’s enough for me.
How I would vote: 1. Kris Bryant, Cubs; 2. Matt Duffy, San Francisco Giants; 3. Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies
NATIONAL LEAGUE MANAGER OF THE YEAR
I get it — there is a large segment of the baseball community that truly believes the sun rises and sets on Joe Maddon’s butt. And blue is the new red in baseball; getting the Chicago Cubs into the playoffs and maybe beyond has replaced the Boston Red Sox’s ‘Curse of the Bambino’ as the Thing That Will Never Happen©. But Maddon has loads and loads of talent on this Cubs team — do not underestimate that. To my way of thinking, the best managing job in baseball this season was done by the St. Louis Cardinals’ Mike Matheny, who was without the likes of Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday and Matt Adams while leading the team to a MLB-best 100 wins.
How I would vote: 1. Mike Matheny, Cardinals; 2. Joe Maddon, Cubs; 3. Terry Collins, New York Mets.