Early Predictions for Every NBA Award Winner in 2015-16

After a long, but eventful offseason, the NBA is back.

The games and stats don't actually count yet. Premier players and even some coaches are still soaking up the final opportunities for rest before the 2015-16 version of the 82-game grind officially beings.

But the rim-rattling jams and crunch-time jumpers are filling basketball junkies' cravings nonetheless. To further whet those appetites, we're breaking out the crystal ball and laying out our early predictions for all of the league's individual awards.

The process of unearthing these candidates is an inexact science.

There are stats to pore over, player movements to weigh, opportunities to project and even past voting trends to help identify the biggest factors in these decisions. There are also gut feelings, educated guesses and eye-test results to help explain what numbers alone cannot.

These aren't necessarily who we think should win (though, that's true in some cases), but rather who we feel will finish the upcoming campaign with the most compelling case for each award.

For years, San Antonio Spurs general manager R.C. Buford flew under the radar as one of the secret keys to the Silver and Black's success. Then, 2013-14 came around, the team rolled to 62 victories (its fourth 60-win season since Buford landed his current gig in July 2002), and he finally grabbed the spotlight by capturing the Executive of the Year award.

After a fruitful summer of roster retooling, a second piece of hardware could be coming soon.

But this one won't come for the same reasons as the first. Back then, Buford avoided the temptation to do anything dramatic following San Antonio's devastating loss in the 2013 Finals. He kept his core together by re-signing Manu Ginobili and Tiago Splitter, while limiting his external additions to support pieces like Marco Belinelli and Jeff Ayres.

Buford was much busier this time around. His in-house work was once again brilliant, locking down two-way wings Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green for the foreseeable future, plus re-signing Alamo City fixtures Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. Buford also went outside the organization to land the only 2014-15 All-Star to swap jerseys this summer (LaMarcus Aldridge) and free agency's best bargain (David West for the veteran's minimum).

"San Antonio's summer was a success without a caveat," wrote Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney. "... This was a front office showcase for a contender that milked the NBA's transactional system to its fullest."

2014-15 Winner: Bob Myers, Golden State Warriors

Honorable Mentions: Pat Riley, Miami Heat; John Hammond, Milwaukee Bucks

A potentially disastrous summer wound up being the most productive of Doc Rivers' tenure with the Los Angeles Clippers.

Not only did he narrowly avoid losing his defensive linchpin DeAndre Jordan, Rivers snagged a starter and rebuilt his bench, despite entering the summer with no draft pick and minimal cap space. It was a whirlwind ride, but the end result is the deepest roster he's had in L.A.

This award often goes to a coach who most exceeds expectations, which would seemingly put Rivers in an uphill battle. The Clippers weren't perfect last season—their rotation struggled to go more than six deep—but they were still a 56-win team with the league's second-best point differential (plus-6.6).

Yet, they feel like they have another level that hasn't been reached. Their biggest test (exorcising their postseason demons) won't come until after this award has been handed out, but there's enough room to grow during the regular season to push Rivers ahead of his peers.

L.A. has yet to claim a top-two seed in the Western Conference under his watch. This club finished a disappointing 15th in defensive efficiency last season.

The potential for upward mobility exists, and Rivers seems to have the pieces needed to make it happen. He also understands the steep implications of what could transpire if this group doesn't break through: If the Clippers don't win now, they'll have to honestly question if this core ever can.

"We're right on the borderline," Rivers told Grantland's Zach Lowe. "I have no problem saying that. I'm a believer that teams can get stale. ... We're right at the edge."

Top-tier talent plus desperation just might equal a special season for the Clippers and an award-winning one for their head coach.

2014-15 Winner: Mike Budenholzer, Atlanta Hawks

Honorable Mentions: Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs; Alvin Gentry, New Orleans Pelicans

It's too early into the Philadelphia 76ers' radical rebuilding project to determine how well they develop talent. But one thing is already clear: They're more than happy to let the youngsters loose.

And if there's one constant thread that links all Rookie of the Year recipients together, it's opportunity.

Numbers matter in this race. A lot. The past six winners all led their respective classes in scoring. Jahlil Okafor could make it seven in a row if he's able to capitalize on the touches the Sixers will surely force-feed him.

"Okafor is known for his incredible scoring ability on the low block, and he's joining the worst offense in the NBA," wrote CBS Sports' Zach Harper. "He should get plenty of opportunities for points."

Two years ago, Michael Carter-Williams captured this award by averaging 16.7 points, 6.3 assists, 6.2 rebounds and, perhaps most importantly, 34.5 minutes in this same system. Current Sixers big man Nerlens Noel finished third in the voting last season, which is more impressive than it might sound considering he's a defense-first player with limited scoring skills.

Okafor, who averaged 17.3 points and 8.5 rebounds during his lone season at Duke, should pile up the production in Philly. Despite being only 19 years old, he has a decent chance to pace the Sixers in points, shots, minutes and rebounds as a freshman. Part of that is a reflection of his talent; it also says a lot about what he'll have around him.

With Joel Embiid sidelined again, Okafor has no threat for playing time. And Philly doesn't have a better scoring option on the roster. As long as the Sixers give the 6'11" center room to breathe underneath, he'll light the lamp more frequently than any of his first-year peers. 

2014-15 Winner: Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves

Honorable Mentions: D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers; Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons

The best argument against Boston Celtics spark plug Isaiah Thomas as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate might be the most obvious one—there's a chance he won't actually be a sixth man.

The 5'9" point guard has never masked his desire to start. His production has pleaded even harder for a place in the opening lineup.

After joining the Celtics at the trade deadline, Thomas promptly paced the team in points (19.0), field-goal attempts (13.6) and player efficiency rating (22.3). Boston fared 4.4 points better per 100 possessions with him than without him.

But the Celtics might prefer to keep his scoring punch on the second unit. His quick-strike ability can change the complexion of a game in an instant, and he's better equipped to carry the reserves than Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley. Plus, keeping that pair in the starting five gives Boston its best chance to set a strong defensive tone out of the gate.

Celtics coach Brad Stevens says he has "not decided" his starting backcourt "nor will we for a while," via WEEI.com's Ben Rohrbach.

Assuming Thomas winds up back in the sixth-man spot, this should be his award to lose.

Truth be told, he had a better statistical campaign than last season's winner, Lou Williams, leading him in points (16.4 to 15.5), assists (4.2 to 2.1), PER (20.6 to 19.9) and true shooting percentage (57.9 to 56.4). Williams' team won nine more games, but if the Celtics can build off their surprise playoff run, they could strengthen Thomas' candidacy even further.

Provided, of course, that Thomas doesn't spoil this prediction by winning a starting gig. 

2014-15 Winner: Lou Williams, then-Toronto Raptors

Honorable Mentions: Jamal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers; Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors

From the moment he entered the NBA as a 6'11", 280-pound specimen, Andre Drummond has always appeared on the verge of a breakout. The Detroit Pistons have finally set the stage to make that happen.

Coach Stan Van Gundy, who once helped mold Dwight Howard into a superstar, has had a full year to learn Drummond's strengths and weaknesses. Executive Stan Van Gundy has spent that time creating an environment in which Drummond can thrive.

With stretch forward Ersan Ilyasova assuming Greg Monroe's vacated starting spot, Drummond no longer has to share interior real estate with his frontcourt partner. The additions of rookie Stanley Johnson and veteran Marcus Morris should further clear congestion as Detroit's 34.4 three-point percentage from last season (17th overall) could see a substantial spike.

"We have a lot of guys on our team who are able to shoot the ball, so it takes the pressure off me as well when I do get the ball," Drummond said, via MLive.com's Aaron McMann. "I can pass it out to somebody. They can't really double down on me because they can shoot the ball."

Offense will be key in Drummond claiming this award, because he already rebounds at an elite level (13.5 per game in 2014-15, second overall). He has improved his volume scoring numbers during each of his first three seasons, but he shot a career-worst 51.4 percent during his first year under Van Gundy.

A better-balanced floor should help bring that number back up, as will having point guard Reggie Jackson at the helm for an entire campaign. Drummond shot 57.4 percent from the field alongside Jackson compared to only 48.8 percent without him.

Howard made his superstar leap during his fourth NBA season. Drummond's per-36-minute marks suggest he has that kind of ceiling (16.3 points, 15.9 boards, 2.2 blocks last year). With a max contract to either earn or validate—depending on when the Pistons pay him—he should be ready for his meteoric rise.

2014-15 Winner: Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls

Honorable Mentions: Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards; C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers

If a mental picture exists of how a Defensive Player of the Year should look, it probably bears a striking resemblance to 7'2" Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert.

He's freakishly long even by the NBA's larger-than-life standards. He sports an absurd 7'8.5" wingspan, reaches 9'7" off the ground without jumping and even boasts a 29" vertical, per DraftExpress. Combine those physical tools with insatiable energy and instincts that make you forget he's just 23 years old, and you have the proverbial immovable object.

"He takes his responsibility to guard the paint and protect the rim so seriously that he'll challenge any shot in his neighborhood and isn't afraid to put himself in a position to occasionally get posterized," wrote NBA.com's Fran Blinebury. "That's occasionally, because it doesn't happen very often."

To take that a step further, simply scoring on Gobert doesn't happen very often.

He held opponents to a minuscule 40.4 percent conversion rate on interior shots last season, the best mark of anyone who faced five such shots per game. His 7.0 block percentage ranked second among players who logged 20-plus minutes a night. He also tied for the sixth-best rebounding percentage at 20.7.

Gobert only started 37 games, averaged 26.3 minutes and still wound up fifth in last season's Defensive Player of the Year voting. His individual numbers above had a lot to do with that. So too did Utah's defensive emergence around Gobert.

When the Jazz shipped then-starting center Enes Kanter to Oklahoma City at the trade deadline, they were buried at 27th in defensive efficiency. After promoting Gobert to the opening group, Utah had the league's best defense by far after the break. The No. 2 team, the Milwaukee Bucks, was closer to the 18th-ranked New Orleans Pelicans than they were to the Jazz.

With major minutes awaiting him, Gobert should rack up all the traditional statistics some voters still prefer. And he'll score just as many points with the analytical minds who like to dig a little deeper.

2014-15 Winner: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs

Honorable Mentions: Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat; Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder

Everywhere LeBron James looks, there are threats to his NBA throne.

Kevin Durant hasn't abandoned his quest to don something better than a silver medal. Anthony Davis' takeover has become a matter of when, not if. Last season tossed several new names into MVP hat, including winner Stephen Curry and runner-up James Harden.

James hasn't gone this long without an MVP award (two years and counting) since winning his first of four in 2009. But even if the hardware has gone to other players, the crown remains in Cleveland.

There isn't a tougher cover in the entire league, a point James hammered home during his fifth consecutive trip to the Finals. With Kevin Love sidelined and Kyrie Irving lost late in the series opener, James willed the short-handed Cleveland Cavaliers to within two victories of the franchise's first title.

During the six-game series—against the league's best defense—he tallied 35.8 points, 13.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists on a nightly basis. Through no fault of his own, his efforts weren't enough to save his depleted team. And that could easily be what propels him to a fifth MVP honor.

"I have no time to waste," James told USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. "My ultimate goal is to win a championship, and it starts now."

James is already locked in, and yet he's loose enough to snap a sideline selfie during a preseason game. He is fueled by the pressure but not overwhelmed by it.

His individual numbers are always elite, and this season will be no different. With Irving still on the shelf, the scoring and distributing demands on James will be increased for the foreseeable future. 

There might be several worthy successors behind him, but he hasn't abdicated his throne yet.

2014-15 Winner: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Honorable Mentions: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans; Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.

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