It's premature to judge Texans' 2014 draft class

There has been a rush to judgment concerning the Texans' draft class this year.

The conclusion hasn't been positive. No team is getting less from its 2014 rookies than the Texans.

Former NFL executive Bill Polian, now an ESPN analyst, says its takes at least four years to judge a draft. If you go back four years, the Texans in 2011 selected J.J. Watt, Brooks Reed, Shiloh Keo, Derek Newton and T.J. Yates. Only Yates is no longer on the roster, but you can argue he was a find for the Texans in the fifth round. Not many fifth rounders win a playoff game.

Since, general manager Rick Smith's drafts have not been as productive. The 2012 draft was at best average. He used the first pick for linebacker Whitney Mercilus, who has had his moments but nothing more; the second pick on wide receiver DeVier Posey, who has shown promise but now has virtually disappeared; third and fourth picks on guards Brandon Brooks and Ben Jones, starters but far from All-Pros; and two other fourth-round picks on Keshawn Martin and Jared Crick, role players sometimes called on to do more than they appear ready to handle. The best pick might turn out to be placekicker Randy Bullock in the fifth round.

The first and second picks in 2013 were winners -- wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and safety D.J. Swearinger. But the rest, except for offensive lineman David Quessenberry, whose inability to play because of cancer can't be blamed on Smith, and tight end Ryan Griffin in the sixth round, were busts. None is with the team. Linebacker Sam Montgomery, chosen in the third round and later released for violating team policy, was Smith's biggest bust.

No one knows how this year's class is going to turn out, although early results don't look particularly promising. Linebacker Jadeveon Clowney likely will be a star, befitting his No. 1 overall selection, but has been injured. Guard Xavier Su'a-Filo, taken in the second round and considered a potential starter, hasn't yet adjusted to the NFL. Nose tackle Louis Nix III, out for the season with an injury, might turn out to be this year's Montgomery. The Texans were warned he didn't have much of a motor.

Coach Bill O'Brien this week had positive things to say about Su'a-Filo and Nix, but you didn't have to read deep between the lines to know Nix has been a disappointment.

Of the other choices, running back Alfred Blue, taken in the sixth round, might be the most valuable, particularly if Arian Foster continues to be plagued by injuries. Blue started last Sunday against the New York Giants and might again this Sunday against Buffalo. Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz, defensive end Jeoffrey Pagan, fullback Jay Prosch and cornerback Andre Hal have shown promise. Quarterback Tom Savage, as anticipated, is a project.

Give this class an incomplete. Check back in four years.