The analyst thinks Apple can sell 35 million iPad minis in fiscal 2013 at $299, with 25% cannibalization of the larger version of the tablet. He adds that a lower level of cannibalization - or a higher average selling price - could drive his estimates higher still.
I would note that this scenario suggests incremental revenues of more than $10 billion - this for a product that no one is certain actually exists. Apple never ceases to amaze.
Here's a rundown on What Hargreaves thinks is going to happen to the iPad lineup.
- He thinks there is a slight refresh to the current 9.7-inch version coming in October, with "slightly updated" screen technology, a new camera position and an improved battery to reduce weight.
- The iPad 2, he thinks, "will likely be end-of-lifed." He thinks Apple will stop making the 8GB iPad 2 in front of the holidays.
- He thinks the $399 price point could be filled with a 16 GB mini or an 8 GB New iPad...
- ...but he thinks a 16 GB mini is more likely.
"Apple is approaching a tremendously strong period for product cycles," he writes. "We are confident that the company’s upcoming lineup can drive EPS growth at least in line with our estimates."
AAPL is up $14.55, or 2.6%, to $583.60. (Note that the Nasdaq Composite is up 2.87% as the market enters the final minutes of trading.)
