Future of Carl Edwards, Roush Fenway Racing uncertain

Nothing is concrete, nor has anyone said anything official, but it seems to be a given that Carl Edwards is in his last season with Roush Fenway Racing. If this has an air of familiarity to it, it's because this exact scenario played out three years ago.

In 2011, Edwards was set to join Joe Gibbs Racing until a last-minute counteroffer by Roush -- aided by the deep pockets of Ford Motor Company -- compelled Edwards to sign an extension.

A free agent at the conclusion of this season, Edwards again is being wooed by JGR, according to multiple reports, where the team would add a fourth car for the 34-year-old driver. Per his usual stance, Edwards, who represents himself, isn't talking publicly about his future. Multiple times in 2014, Edwards has declined to discuss negotiations with the media and did so again last weekend at Kansas Speedway.

"You guys know that I don't like to talk about that stuff in the media," Edwards said. "To me, that is business and I have made the mistake of letting that turn into a big media thing before, so I would rather not talk about that and keep that between me and Jack [Roush] and [Roush Fenway team president] Steve Newmark."

Although Edwards has continued to be evasive, the few remarks he's made have created a stir.

In a pre-race interview prior to Kansas, Edwards was asked explicitly by Fox analyst Darrell Waltrip if he could win a championship at Roush. After a long, uncomfortable pause, Edwards responded saying if it were to happen, "we have to do it this year."

Whether intended or not, it gave the illusion Edwards already has one foot out the Roush door.

That JGR would have interest in Edwards is no surprise. Now in his 10th full season, Edwards has 22 victories to his name and twice finished runner-up in the championship, narrowly missing out in 2011 on a tiebreaker.

It's even more clear why Edwards is giving serious thought to jumping off the Roush ship: the three-car organization and JGR are trending in opposite directions. Roush continually struggles to get its three teams operating at a high level and lags, performance-wise, behind Ford counterpart Team Penske.

Meanwhile, over at JGR, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have already won races this season, and Matt Kenseth is sitting a comfortable second in points. And a year ago, the three drivers won a combined 12 races, compared to just three overall for Roush.

If Edwards wants to seriously pursue a Sprint Cup championship, the best opportunity available would be at JGR.

This was also all true, though, three years ago, but Edwards elected to remain in the Roush fold. But in the three years since, the landscape has changed considerably and Roush is no longer the powerhouse it once was, Penske seemingly usurping it as Ford's flagship organization.

And if what seems apparent does occur and Edwards bolts for JGR, Roush will be left scrambling.

Along with Edwards, Greg Biffle is a free agent and is uncertain about returning. The Associated Press speculated Michael Waltrip Racing could pursue Biffle, who in an interview on SiriusXM NASCAR last week said, "I've got options. [Roush] isn't the only place. I'm going to have a job."

If Edwards and Biffle depart, they would leave only Ricky Stenhouse Jr. under contract to Roush. Replacing the high-level production of his teammates is not something the sophomore driver has shown to be capable of, having led zero laps and residing 25th in points though 11 races this season.

And with Clint Bowyer re-signing with MWR, there are no other marquee free agents Roush could sign to fill the void. It's not far fetched to think the domino effect could put Roush in a tailspin, dropping it ever further behind NASCAR's super teams.

It's a precarious position Roush now finds itself. But for now it's only a worst-case scenario and contingent on Edwards leaving. Still, it's a set of circumstances that appears to be aligning with Edwards' impending decision hanging ominously over Roush like black cloud.