Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Thanks to inflated expectations among oddsmakers and the betting public, defending Super Bowl champions often have trouble covering spreads. The Philadelphia Eagles are finding that out, going just 2-4 against the spread so far this season.

Can Philadelphia cover a near-touchdown against Carolina on Sunday afternoon?

NFL point spread: The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.6-17.4 Eagles (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers won two games in a row into October but are shooting to rebound in Week 7 after losing at Washington 23-17 last time out.

Carolina fell down to the Redskins 17-0 in the second quarter, rallied to within 20-17 midway through the fourth and drove last-gasp inside the Washington red zone, but they came up empty.

The Panthers actually outgained Washington 350-288 and held a 22-18 edge in first downs. But they lost the turnover battle 3-0, resulting in a minus-10 point differential.

At 3-2 overall, Carolina sits a game behind first-place New Orleans in the NFC South. And the Panthers' two losses both came by one score, with chances to tie or win late.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

The defending Super Bowl champs just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 34-13 victory over the Giants in New Jersey last Thursday.

Philadelphia turned an early pick of Eli Manning into a touchdown, led 14-3 after one quarter and 24-6 at the half, then drove the opening possession of the second half 75 yards to another touchdown on its way toward the easy cover as a two-point favorite.

The Eagles held a 23-17 edge in first downs and a 33/27 edge in time of possession. On the season, Philadelphia has outrushed five of its six opponents. At 3-3, the Eagles are a half-game behind first-place Washington in the NFC East.

Smart betting pick

Philadelphia beat Carolina one year ago 28-23, but the Eagles aren't quite the same team now as they were then. At least not yet.

Philadelphia is coming off a divisional road victory, while the Panthers are coming off a disappointing road loss, but reversals of fortune occur every week in the NFL.

The smart money here takes the Panthers and the points.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in five of the Panthers' last six games versus the Eagles.

The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in the early afternoon.

The total has gone over in six of the Panthers' last eight games in the early afternoon.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.