Rumours of a coalition between two main parties swirl v Pheu Thai ponders an image change but Thaksin diehards won't hear of it v Regime backers had high hopes for Songkhla cabinet meet, but anti-coal clash dashes them
Core members 'luke-warm'
It appears the calls to lift the ban on political activities have been drowned out this week by a chorus of responses to comments by two senior politicians from the largest parties about a post-election alliance between the two arch-rivals, the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties.
If Democrat deputy leader Nipit Intarasombat and Pheu Thai stalwart Chaturon Chaisaeng were trying to test the political waters by floating the idea of the two parties burying the hatchet and forging an alliance, the feedback was not that promising. Leading members of major parties were quick to pour cold water on the idea.
However, it was interesting to note that while the core members were luke-warm to any such proposed alliance coming to fruition, they stopped short of ruling out the possibility.
The heavyweights in the Chartthaipattana and even those in the Democrats and Pheu Thai agreed it was premature to entertain any thought of the two parties coming together to stave off a non-elected figure taking over the premiership after the next poll.
They saw the point in both Mr Nipit and Mr Chaturon speaking up for an alliance to be built to shut the door on a non-MP prime minister. Critics said their stand attests to the politicians' priorities and their sheer will to resist military influence extending beyond the life of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), which will cease to exist when the next government takes office.
Political analysts said talk of a Democrat-Pheu Thai alliance, however remote the possibility some critics might find it to be, may have spelt out the intention of some politicians to put aside their differences to fight off the military's influence, which they may perceive as a bigger threat to them than their own feuding.
Responding to the two-party alliance idea, Chartthaipattana core member Warawut Silpa-archa said now was not the time to be discussing who will make the coalition line-up of the next government. The MP tally in the next election will decide whether his party will be chosen to be part of the administration. He suggested in humble tones that, given the size of his party, someone else will make that choice for Chartthaipattana.
He was understood to be referring to the party that wins the most seats in the next poll getting to pick its coalition partners, if it fails to capture a parliamentary majority. There would be a slim chance of this under the new electoral system.
Mr Warawut's response came as some political insiders have seen the possibility of the NCPO cosying up to Chartthaipattana by handing Weerasak Kowsurat, one of the party's prominent members, a tourism and sport minister portfolio in the latest cabinet reshuffle.
The observation, however, was met with a swift snub from Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha who categorically denied that Chartthaipattana and the military have forged a secret deal to secure their political future together.
On the subject of a Democrat-Pheu Thai pact, Pheu Thai Party secretary-general Phumtham Wechayachai agreed no such arrangement should be committed to, indicating that a lot can happen on the political stage before the election and it would not be right to jump the gun.
However, Mr Phumtham said democratic principles must prevail and parties that stick to these should join hands to fight any attempt by the regime to cling to power.
On the other hand, Democrat secretary-general Juti Krairiksh sounded a note of caution over the alliance talk, saying Mr Nipit and Mr Chaturon were entitled to their own opinions even though they may not represent their parties' respective stances.
He also voiced reservations about his party welcoming Pheu Thai into the government fold, or vice versa. He reiterated that the two parties are worlds apart in their ideologies and principles. But the Democrat secretary-general did not dismiss a scenario that would see the two parties becoming executive branch bedfellows after the next poll.
Sudarat targets social media
Although the military regime's ban on political activities remains in effect, this does not mean political parties have totally stopped doing anything behind the scenes.
A political source said it would not be far-fetched to think the Pheu Thai Party still held closed-door meetings to gauge and analyse its popularity as well as that of its arch-rival, the Democrat Party.
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, who is tipped to become the next Pheu Thai leader, is said to have assigned former Bangkok MP Anudit Nakhonthap, who is close to her, to survey public opinion nationwide about the two leading parties.
It was found that the popularity of the two parties was about the same at 20% each, while those who disliked both camps and were opponents of the military regime accounted for some 60% of the respondents.
Khunying Sudarat is said to place an emphasis on tapping into votes from that 60%, which appears to be waiting for an alternative party. A Pheu Thai source said Khunying Sudarat is trying to improve the image of the party, which has been hurt by persistent problems.
The party is alleged to be friendly to certain politicians with questionable backgrounds.
The party has also been criticised for being servile to the family of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra while finding itself plagued by a fierce rift between members of Pheu Thai and the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.
According to observers, Pheu Thai seems unable to address these issues, which have forced many people to look for young blood in politics -- capable and free of dubious histories.
Mr Anudit presented the findings of his survey about Pheu Thai's popularity. During the presentation, former Pheu Thai MP for Maha Sarakham, Sutin Klangsaeng, reportedly expressed his disapproval of Khunying Sudarat's attempts to try and curb the party's image as being heavily associated with Thaksin in an attempt to "institutionalise" it.
Mr Sutin insisted Pheu Thai does not need an image change. The party is seen as serving grassroots people and Thaksin is smart and well-respected, he said, according to the source.
Mr Sutin's comment was reported to have upset Khunying Sudarat, who knows many former party MPs are refusing to change their political mindset. These politicians appear to prefer direct contact with locals rather than create a new image through social media as suggested by Khunying Sudarat and other former Bangkok MPs.
The party source said Thaksin has cut financial support to some former MPs trying to reach out to locals, but is still helping party politicians who retain regular communication with their constituents through social media channels, such as Line and Facebook.
This has upset some former MPs in the North and Northeast, who believe most of their local supporters rarely use social media.
"A Bangkok person such as Khunying [Sudarat] may not understand that rural people still haven't changed [with regards to embracing new communication technology]," a former Pheu Thai MP said. "They still receive information about politics from their representatives."
The politician said only a small number of people in rural areas use social media, adding: "The khunying is out of touch with the real world."
The politician also expressed concern about the party's key figures who are keen on tapping into upper-class people and focusing on the use of social media.
"The Democrats have also done it. We are at a disadvantage with regard to them in that area [use of social media]," the politician said.
Sour notes in the South
The cabinet did not expect its first mobile meeting in the South this week to end on a sour note, as many critics have put it.
At the same time, the regime also has a tough balancing act to perform as it should know not to disappoint supporters in the region to such an extent that it might turn them against the government, according to observers.
The mobile meeting in Songkhla from Nov 28-29 was marred by negative publicity from a series of incidents including Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's dressing down of a fisherman who approached the premier and tried to raise in person his plight as a result of fishing restrictions.
But a more damning event was the clash between local residents opposed to a coal-fired power plant's construction in Thepha district of Songkhla and the police on Monday, the day before the cabinet ministers flew down South.
About 500 people walked from Thepha district to submit a letter of protest to Gen Prayut who was visiting the province for the mobile cabinet meeting in Muang district, but they were stopped by police, which led to the clash.
The Songkhla Provincial Court on Wednesday granted bail to 15 anti-coal protesters and warrants for the arrest of more may be in the pipeline, according to police.
All these incidents occurred just as rubber prices were at their lowest point in months with farmers' demands for quicker and more responsive state measures to solve the problem failing to be met, according to the critics.
Some local farmers said they had pinned high hopes on the government being able to pull practical measures out of the hat to at least maintain rubber prices at a decent survivable rate. However, they insisted little has been done to reverse the price tumble.
A source close to southern rubber farmers said the growers would continue to support the government for now. However, some have made it known they are nearing the end of their tether.
The source said the farmers have waited long enough for the government to implement immediate workable policies before the National Council for Peace and Order relinquishes power and passes on the baton to the next government.
There is no telling whether the rubber price problem will ever be tackled if it remains unresolved and is carried over to the new government, the source added.
A popular notion has been that if there was to be any government with total, uncontested power which could order changes to its heart's desire, then it had to be the Prayut administration, given the military's complete control of affairs of state as well as Gen Prayut's authority to invoke the all-powerful Section 44.
The South has been a traditional political stronghold of the Democrat Party. However, a large section of the local population are government sympathisers who are believed to have found the May 2014 coup, which swept Gen Prayut to the premiership, quite understandable, the source said.
The source added that many supporters were counting on this week's mobile cabinet meeting to set the stage for them to air their grievances and troubles.
After all, they felt the idea behind the mobile meet was for the premier and his ministers to "bring themselves down to ground level" and listen to the problems locals experience first-hand with no red tape between them.