Ranking the Top 15 College Basketball Programs by Their Current NBA Talent

Dan Favale@@danfavaleX.com LogoFeatured ColumnistMarch 15, 2018

Ranking the Top 15 College Basketball Programs by Their Current NBA Talent

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    Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

    March Madness participants are well-represented throughout the NBA.

    So, too, are many of the schools watching the 68-team tournament unfold from home.

    Players from more than 130 schools have logged time in the Association this season. Some, like Arizona State (James Harden) and Lehigh (C.J. McCollum), only have one representative. Others, such as UCLA and Kentucky, lay claim to more than a dozen. 

    Identifying the most prolific alma maters for the 2017-18 campaign alone will come down two both the quality and quantity of their presence at the professional level. This pecking order leans on two determining factors—just like last season:

    • The number of players from a given school who have taken the court this year.
    • The cumulative score of NBA Math's total points added for every player from each institution—sans any negative values, because making it to The Show is impressive enough and, most importantly, we're not here to penalize youngsters in the infancy of their careers. (This ends up helping out certain veterans, but so be it.) 

    The rankings for each school in both categories will then be added together. First place gets one point, second place gets two points, etc. So the best possible score is 2 (no. 1 in both total players and TPA). This means lower total scores are better. In the event of a tie, we'll turn to the school with the superior player count.

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    Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

    15. Villanova Wildcats

    Talent Score: 32

    Player Count: 5 (20th)

    Total TPA: 251.05 (12th)

    Positive Players: Kyle Lowry (251.05)

    Negative Players: Ryan Arcidiacono (-10.30); Josh Hart (-12.42); Darrun Hilliard (-14.31); Dante Cunningham (-47.15)

    Hang tight, Kyle Lowry! Your back shouldn't hurt for too much longer. Josh Hart is spunky and Mikal Bridges is coming as fast as allowed. 

          

    14. LSU Tigers

    Talent Score: 32

    Player Count: 7 (15th)

    Total TPA: 169.11 (17th)

    Positive Players: Ben Simmons (169.11)

    Negative Players: Josh Gray (-9.86); Jordan Mickey (-24.25); Antonio Blakeney (-29.67); Johnny O'Bryant (-43.38); Garrett Temple (-65.03); Jarell Martin (-72.55)

    Almost two years removed from school, Ben Simmons is still shouldering the hopes and dreams of an unimpressive LSU pool. Shaking. My. Head.

    To be fair, Garrett Temple is an understated three-position wing. He'll aide Ben Simmons' cause if he escapes the Sacramento Kings before his prime runs out. And Jarell Martin has exhibited some pizzazz with the Memphis Grizzlies. He could grind his way to the plus side of the moon in time. Failing that, the 6'10" Nazreon Reid is considered one of the top prospects for the 2019 draft.

    Help, in some form, is on the way, Ben.

          

    13. Kansas Jayhawks

    Talent Score: 31

    Player Count: 16 (4th)

    Total TPA: 93.84 (27thΩs2)

    Positive Players: Joel Embiid (93.84)

    Negative Players: Cole Aldrich (-3.90); Nick Collison (-6.51); Markieff Morris (-9.39); Tarik Black (-9.58); Jeff Withey (-9.71); Darrell Arthur (-12.36); Cheick Diallo (-32.20); Kelly Oubre Jr. (-37.08); Marcus Morris (-37.47); Wayne Selden (-50.93); Ben McLemore (-53.35); Frank Mason III (-58.25); Mario Chalmers (-67.08); Andrew Wiggins (-132.70); Josh Jackson (-164.42)

    No need to mince words here: Kansas should be higher. And they will eventually be higher. Josh Jackson and Kelly Oubre Jr. should both improve by substantial margins.

    Andrew Wiggins is the problem. If he doesn't start to bridge the galaxy's gap separating him from former teammate Joel Embiid, the Jayhawks won't have the multi-star clout inherent of every esteemed program.

          

    12. USC Trojans

    Talent Score: 28

    Player Count: 5 (20th)

    Total TPA: 288.27 (8th)

    Positive Players: DeMar DeRozan (109.76); Nikola Vucevic (84.35); Taj Gibson (73.13); Dewayne Dedmon (21.03)

    Negative Players: Nick Young (-52.43)

    USC sports a solid four-player core. Sadly, the Trojans' time in the sun will probably end, at least for a little bit, once DeMar DeRozan's window as a top-20 player runs its course. The Trojans don't have the present or iobvious future to become a top-10 staple.

    11. Michigan State Spartans

    Talent Score: 24

    Player Count: 8 (9th)

    Total TPA: 209.29 (15th)

    Positive Players: Draymond Green (146.99); Gary Harris (62.30)

    Negative Players: Deyonta Davis (-1.24); Adreian Payne (-3.52); Matt Costello (-3.96); Denzel Valentine (-22.32); Zach Randolph (-53.34); Bryn Forbes (-83.10)

    Draymond Green is on track to have his defensive points saved total slashed in half compared to last season. And since that happens to match up with the eye test and his general availability, it would be easy to blame him for the Wolverines sliding outside the top 10. 

    Let's not do that. Gary Harris is posting a career-high TPA, and Michigan earns a nice little boon in the volume department from its barely-NBA players. It all evens out. And besides, if Bryn Forbes or Denzel Valentine ever claw their way into the positives, the Wolverines will be sitting pretty.

    Next Five: 20. Baylor Bears; 19. Louisville Cardinals; 18. Texas A&M Aggies; 17. Utah Utes; 16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

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    Michael Wyke/Associated Press

    Talent Score: 23

    Player Count: 6 (16th)

    Total TPA: 327.91 (7th)

    Positive Players: Chris Paul (232.13); John Collins (42.86); James Johnson (36.52); Al-Farouq Aminu (12.63); Jeff Teague (3.77)

    Negative Players: Ish Smith (-73.25)

    Look at Chris Paul, less than two months out from his 33rd birthday, still propping up an entire school's score.

    The Wake Forest Demon Deacons would land even higher if the point guard didn't miss time earlier in the year. He's playing at a 400 TPA pace over the course of an 82-game season, a benchmark he's eclipsed only three times in his career. 

    Climbing much higher in the seasons to come will be a tall order. The Demon Deacons are already on the downslope compared to last year.

    Jeff Teague has turned in better performances, but his usage beside the Minnesota Timberwolves' cornucopia of scorers will remain on the decline. James Johnson is 31. John Collins will add much more value as his career progresses, but his prime will never intersect with Paul's salad days.

    Wake Forest doesn't have a top-60 prospect on its docket for this summer or next, according to NBADraft.net. If Collins isn't up to the task of ferrying Johnson's or Teague's twilights, the Demon Deacons' top-10 pull figures to have a short shelf life.

    Unless, of course, Paul decides not to age out of superstardom before his 37th birthday.

9. Indiana Hoosiers

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    Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

    Talent Score: 23

    Player Count: 8 (9th)

    Total TPA: 214.28 (14th)

    Positive Players: Victor Oladipo (188.88); OG Anunoby (17.50); Cody Zeller (7.69); Troy Williams (0.21)

    Negative Players: Thomas Bryant (-4.92); Yogi Ferrell (-34.90); Noah Vonleh (-38.50); Eric Gordon (-44.10)

    One player really can make all the difference.

    After barely cracking the top 20 in last year's proceedings, the Indiana Hoosiers just miss an eighth-place nod by virtue of the player-count tiebreak. And they have Victor Oladipo to thank.

    He owns one of the league's 20 highest TPA scores. Injuries to Jimmy Butler and DeMarcus Cousins have opened the door for him to creep inside the top 15. And this rise is not a hollow one.

    Oladipo's career season has the Indiana Pacers contending for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs less than a year after trading Paul George. The 25-year-old has been a pivotal part of their healing process—and not just because he was the headlining return of their deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

    Through the 2,100-plus minutes they've played with Oladipo, the Pacers are outpacing opponents by 7.7 points per 100 possessions. When he steps off, that number plummets 16.4 points in the wrong direction, to a minus-8.7.

    Oklahoma City doesn't suffer that much without Russell Westbrook. Nor do the Milwaukee Bucks incur that stark of a swing without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Ditto for Kemba Walker and the Charlotte Hornets. And the Golden State Warriors with any one of their four megastuds.

    Name a star. Any star. Measure their team's net-rating drop-off when they take seat. Oladipo's will be larger.

    Hoping for his All-NBA efforts to maintain this position over the long haul isn't a sustainable model. He'll need help. Good thing OG Anunoby is everything teams look for in a contemporary wing, and that a healthy Cody Zeller is Charlotte's secret stuff. 

8. North Carolina Tar Heels

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    Sam Forencich/Getty Images

    Talent Score: 23

    Player Count: 17 (3rd)

    Total TPA: 143.80 (20th)

    Positive Players: Danny Green (47.12); Marvin Williams (39.93); Ed Davis (22.90); Reggie Bullock (16.66); Brandan Wright (7.73); John Henson (6.22); Wayne Ellington (3.24)

    Negative Players: Marcus Paige (-2.81); James Michael McAdoo (-3.31); Tony Bradley (-5.59); Brice Johnson (-8.18); Isaiah Hicks (-12.21); Vince Carter (-12.55); Tyler Zeller (-40.50); Raymond Felton (-55.72); Justin Jackson (-87.42); Harrison Barnes (-88.47)

    Here's to the North Carolina Tar Heels' churning out enough NBA keepers to remain relevant.

    Seventeen players is a lot. Only the Kentucky Wildcats (1,567 26) and Duke Blue Devils (19) have a larger asset base this season. And the Tar Heels need this volume. They don't have the concentrated star power to rumble with the best of the best otherwise.

    Harrison Barnes is the closest they come. He's showcased previously unplumbed offensive survival instincts since leaving the Warriors and is still capable of guarding both forward positions. He cannot, however, be the best player on an above-average team.

    Tabbing Barnes for No. 2 duty might even be a stretch, unless he's surrounded by the perfect mix of shooters, allowed to spend all of his time at the 4 and complemented by a floor-spacing 5 who won't cramp his post-ups and isos but also won't hang him out to dry around the rim at the other end.

    Every other tenured Tar Heel is solid to really solid. Ed Davis, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, John Henson and Marvin Williams are a who's who of veteran specialists. Reggie Bullock is turning heads with the Detroit Pistons (43.1 percent three-point clip), but he's cut from the same mold. 

    Though Justin Jackson defaults to a pleasant unknown as a rookie-year, almost-lottery pick, he'll be lucky to broach Green's career arc. (For what it's worth, he's kind of percolating on offense since the end of February.) The undrafted Isaiah Hicks deserves our attention, but in a can-touch-every-box-score-category-every-once-in-a-while sort of way. Tony Bradley won't get a shake at notoriety with Rudy Gobert in front of him.

    So, once more, with feeling: Here's to North Carolina's volume-shooting NBA farm—which appears to be at serious risk of suffering from a cold streak over the next few years.

7. Marquette Golden Eagles

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    Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

    Talent Score: 22

    Player Count8 (9th)

    Total TPA: 216.63 (13th)

    Positive Players: Jimmy Butler (203.33); Wesley Matthews (12.73); Jamil Wilson (0.57)

    Negative Players: Vander Blue (-9.45); Dwight Buycks (-24.84); Henry Ellenson (-29.94); Dwyane Wade (-50.07); Jae Crowder (-77.97)

    Jimmy Butler's meniscus injury is not the biggest detriment to the Marquette Golden Eagles' standing. He's still sitting inside the top 15 of TPA, even with his weekslong absence. He's more than doing his part.

    Dwyane Wade's demonstratively negative score isn't the primary culprit either. It would be gnarly if he weren't in the red, but he's 36. This isn't an unexpected development.

    Jae Crowder's returns are the true disappointment. The Cleveland Cavaliers were commended for snagging him and his once-upon-a-time league-best contract in the Kyrie Irving trade. He's supposed to be better.

    Plug in his 70.63 TPA from last season, and Marquette would shoot up this list. Stir in his career performance from 2015-16 (132.61), and the Golden Eagles would have a top-five pole position in their sights.

    Instead, they have Butler—and, until recently, the scrappy Wesley Matthews, who is done for the season after suffering a broken right leg. 

    Things won't get much better from here. Matthews turns 32 next season and is now working his way back from another serious injury. Wade is closer to retirement than the backend of his heyday. Crowder has found some of his defensive mojo with Utah Jazz, but he's still looking for his three-point touch.

    With no inflow of star potential on the horizon, Marquette will need the Pistons to groom Dwight Buycks and Henry Ellenson into surprise monsters if its NBA impact is to hinge on more than Tom Thibodeau preserving Butler's knees.

6. Florida Gators

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    Rob Carr/Getty Images

    Talent Score: 20

    Player Count8 (9th)

    Total TPA: 270.78 (11th)

    Positive Players: Al Horford (166.33); Bradley Beal (103.40); Joakim Noah (1.05)

    Negative Players: Udonis Haslem (-7.28); Dorian Finney-Smith (-7.36); Chandler Parsons (-10.63); Marreese Speights (-38.30); Corey Brewer (-45.63)

    I know what some of you are thinking: How have the New York Knicks not been fined for conduct detrimental to winning and, therefore, the league by Luol Deng-ing Joakim Noah? 

    More seriously, allow us to use this space for an Al Horford Appreciation Moment. He and Bradley Beal are holding down the substance of the Florida Gators' presence on their own. And he makes up a noticeably larger slice of the TPA pie than Beal, who is more than a half-decade his junior and does more to tickle the fancy of points-per-game purists.

    "It's good to see a guy that may not have the quote ‘stats' that other people have recognized for all that he brings to the table, night in, night out, on both ends of the court," Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said after Horford was selected to the 2018 All-Star Game, his fifth, per Boston.com's Chad Finn.

    "He's a huge, huge reason why we're where we are," Stevens added. "And he has a huge influence on everybody in our locker room."

    The debate over Horford's actual value rages on anyway. He doesn't score enough. He doesn't rebound enough. He's 31. He isn't Anthony Davis. Blah, blah, blahdy blah.

    Horford isn't the guy you turn to with the game on the line for from-scratch shot creation. He's an underwhelming glass-crasher for someone his size. That much is true. But he excels in so many areas beyond traditional volume-based metrics.

    Boston posts a higher net rating (plus-9.8) when he plays without Kyrie Irving than when Irving plays without him (plus-2.3). He's a smart screener. He's an expert passer from the post. He's hitting almost 43 percent of his triplets. He has the handles to put the ball on the floor after up-fakes. He's comfortable switching away from the basket.

    Poke fun at his raw numbers if you're feeling petty, but this year marks the second time he's clearing 14 points, seven rebounds, five assists and one block per 36 minutes. Alvan Adams and Kevin Durant are the only players in NBA history with more such seasons.

    Florida's player ranks wouldn't look so hot if not for Horford. And given its dearth of incumbent and inbound intrigue beyond Horford and Beal, that ain't changing anytime soon.

5. Connecticut Huskies

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    Chuck Burton/Associated Press

    Talent Score: 12

    Player Count: 8 (9th)

    Total TPA: 493.51 (3rd)

    Positive Players: Andre Drummond (269.29); Kemba Walker (166.65); Jeremy Lamb (26.44); Shabazz Napier (25.32); Rudy Gay (5.40); Emeka Okafor (0.41)

    Negative Players: Daniel Hamilton (-0.05); Rodney Purvis (-3.39)

    Getting to write in Emeka Okafor's name here was pretty flipping awesome. Talk about a feel-good story. The same cannot be said about the Connecticut Huskies' hold on this top-five finish. 

    Props to them for clawing their way up here. Seriously. Their case is not buoyed by much volume. Kemba Walker's meteoric transition to stardom just a few years ago assured them of one standout performer, and Andre Drummond's progression on the offensive end earlier in the season (passing!) gives them a semi-reliable second star. 

    Maybe this is enough to keep UConn in the top 10 for a while. But it probably won't be. The Huskies haven't hand-delivered a lottery prospect since 2012, when Drummond and Jeremy Lamb went ninth and 12th, respectively.

    Lamb and Shabazz Napier are the extent of their professional unknowns, which isn't saying much. Both are turning in career seasons. Both are also career backups over the age of 25.

    UConn remains, to put it kindly, light on options after them. It won't funnel any premier talent into this year's draft, and as of now, NBADraft.net only gives them one top-60 talent for 2019. 

    Firing head coach Kevin Ollie four years after winning the national title doesn't do the Huskies any favors. They're part of the far-flung investigation into questionable-by-NCAA-standards recruiting practices, and he plans to contest his dismissal, per ESPN.com's Myron Medcalf.

    On the bright side, it takes just one or two studs to upkeep recognition within this ladder, and neither Drummond nor Walker is nearing the end of his prime. The Huskies have time to make sure their mark in the Association won't end once age begins to catch up with them.

4. Texas Longhorns

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    Bob Levey/Getty Images

    Talent Score: 12

    Player Count: 10 (7th)

    Total TPA: 377.48 (5th)

    Positive Players: Kevin Durant (242.84); LaMarcus Aldridge (91.55); Myles Turner (40.83); Jarrett Allen (2.26); P.J. Tucker (0.00)

    Negative Players: D.J. Augustin (-27.64); Cory Joseph (-36.69); Tristan Thompson (-38.46); Isaiah Taylor (-79.03); Avery Bradley (-120.56)

    Kevin Durant and, to a lesser-but-not-insignificant extent, LaMarcus Aldridge continue to float the Texas Longhorns' NBA presence.

    Myles Turner has not morphed into a unicorn defender, and his well-rounded offense exists in spite of an at-times junky two-point selection. Tristan Thompson has seen his value fade this season while laboring through noteworthy injuries (calf and ankle) for the first time in his career.

    Avery Bradley picked a bad time for the eye test to align with his shaky catch-all metrics. He'll enter free agency working off season-ending surgery and tasked with rehabilitating his value. Cory Joseph is a heralded backup and spot-starter, and thus he is up against a glass ceiling.

    Jarrett Allen carries some work-in-progress cachet. He's active around the rim on defense and coming along nicely as a pick-and-roll diver. He doesn't have the face-up potential of Turner, but the Brooklyn Nets trust him to do some one-to-two-dribble work in the post. He's another quality product up against a finite trajectory.

    Current freshman Mohamed Bamba may be Texas' best hope at embedding another star in the NBA. As Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman wrote in his latest mock draft:

    "Blocking 3.7 shots per game, he changes the way opponents play against Texas, which has Kenpom.com's  No. 10 defense in the country. Bamba also shoots 74.3 percent at the rim, giving his guards an enormous finishing target (30-of-31 on basket cuts) and clean-up man (1.328 PPP on putbacks)."

    Fortunately for the Longhorns, since they clearly care about this, they needn't worry about ceding too much ground in the near term. That Kevin Durant guy doesn't turn 30 until September. He has at least a few years of Hall-of-Fame output left in his tank.

3. Duke Blue Devils

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    Winslow Townson/Associated Press

    Talent Score: 8

    Player Count: 19 (2nd)

    Total TPA: 340.42 (6th)

    Positive Players: Kyrie Irving (243.56); Jayson Tatum (40.56); Mason Plumlee (39.29); Tyus Jones (17.01)

    Negative Players: Josh McRoberts (-1.43); Luol Deng (-2.32); Marshall Plumlee (-4.58); J.J. Redick (-6.96); Kyle Singler (-13.98); Jabari Parker (-15.03); Justise Winslow (-22.70); Austin Rivers (-24.67); Jahlil Okafor (-29.96); Quinn Cook (-32.58); Miles Plumlee (-37.45); Luke Kennard (-43.73); Lance Thomas (-53.70); Brandon Ingram (-56.59); Rodney Hood (-57.80)

    First impressions of this placement: OMFG LUOL DENG ACTUALLY PLAYED THIS SEASON?

    Second impression: Sheer volume and Kyrie Irving. That's the Duke Blue Devils' top-three finish in a nutshell.

    It won't be for long.

    Duke has a deluge of upstart products in marination mode. Tyus Jones is already starting to establish his footing as a bulldog defender and stout game manager. Justise Winslow may be following suit. He's canning an unsustainable 53.6 percent of his treys over his past 12 outings, but even a minor uptick in outside efficiency will make it easier for the Miami Heat to capitalize on his defensive value.

    Luke Kennard should end up being a solid pro. The league always has a spot for shooters who try on defense. Rodney Hood remains a tantalizing project even with his staple swings on both sides of the floor.

    Beyond solid role-player prospects, though, Duke potentially has three other stars in waiting.

    Jabari Parker has been touch-and-go since returning from his second ACL injury but continues to bust out polished scoring. His outside accuracy has improved a great deal, he's starting to recapture his form around the basket and opposing bigs shouldn't be able to hang with him off the dribble by this time next year.

    Jayson Tatum looks like a near-lock for multiple All-Star appearances. He's playing the part of like-sized solider on the defensive side, switching across every wing spot, and his intermittent collisions with the rookie wall have done little to curtail his off-ball flame-throwing. 

    He's closing in on the 85th percentile of spot-up efficiency and is already a dangerous weapon in transition. He'll be a self-sustaining offensive hub once he's more comfortable with his pull-up jumper against longer defenders.

    Brandon Ingram is the wild card—the boom-or-bust mystery. And he was more boom prior to his hip injury. He's averaging 16.8 points and 4.9 assists over his last 22 cameos while nailing 47.7 percent of his three-point attempts. He's always done a nice job reaching his spots, and his long-range clip doesn't appear to be a total anomaly. The volume is modest—under two attempts per 36 minutes on the season—but he's draining more than 43 percent of his long twos, which represent nearly 20 percent of all his looks.

    Ingram has the length and lateral gait to switch a lot in half-court defensive schemes. He'll offer secondary rim protection and match up even better against burlier forwards as he continues to add muscle. If he makes good on his best-case scenario, Duke will have another NBA All-Star on its resume.

2. UCLA Bruins

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    Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

    Talent Score: 5

    Player Count: 17 (3rd)

    Total TPA: 783.52 (2nd)

    Positive Players: Russell Westbrook (378.88); Kyle Anderson (113.41); Darren Collison (71.48); Trevor Ariza (71.15); Jrue Holiday (65.62); Lonzo Ball (55.61); Kevin Love (27.37); Luc Mbah a Moute (0.0)

    Negative Players: Kevon Looney (-1.21); Ike Anigbogu (-3.10); Larry Drew (-5.41); Travis Wear (-8.19); Zach LaVine (-30.86); T.J. Leaf (-41.23); Norman Powell (-48.68); Shabazz Muhammad (-53.19); Arron Afflalo (-71.31)

    Shoutout to the UCLA Bruins for once again maintaining control of the No. 2 spot despite a limited TPA contribution from Kevin Love (injuries/Cleveland is a mess) and a less-alien detonation from Russell Westbrook.

    Jrue Holiday is doing his darnedest to help carry the torch. He will comfortably finish this season with the highest TPA of his career and is defending his butt off while shimmying between the 1 and 2. Among the 90-something players who have pestered at least 150 pick-and-roll ball-handlers, he ranks fourth in points allowed per possession.

    UCLA will need some of its younger alums to blossom if it wants to hold serve behind the first-place Goliath. That's fine. 

    Norman Powell is forever on breakout watch, and Kyle Anderson is well on his way to becoming the half-speed Joe Ingles, minus the lights-out three-point shooting. Zach LaVine only recently turned 23; he'll never be the greatest—or even an adequate—defender, but he has a real opportunity to play himself into the green on offense even if his ACL injury permanently bilks him of some pop.

    Lonzo Ball is the key. He was billed as a franchise-changing talent ahead of last year's draft and has been on a seesaw ever since. He's already a transcendent passer, and his defense is way better than expected. He's particularly good at recovering from behind plays.

    But the Los Angeles Lakers must see whether he'll marry his rookie-year high points to alpha scoring. He's shooting over 35 percent from deep since mid-November after an ice-cold start, but he remains passive out of the pick-and-roll and when knifing his way into the paint. 

    Ball's superstar barometer will shape the long-term trajectory of UCLA's imprint on the NBA—regardless of how much longer triple-doubles remain part of Westbrook's routine.

1. Kentucky Wildcats

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    David Sherman/Getty Images

    Talent Score: 2

    Player Count: 26 (1st)

    Total TPA: 856.53 (1st)

    Positive Players: Karl-Anthony Towns (253.08); Anthony Davis (225.38); DeMarcus Cousins (192.56); Eric Bledsoe (46.86); Julius Randle (39.06); John Wall (38.43); Devin Booker (29.98); Bam Adebayo (29.04); Dakari Johnson (2.14)

    Negative Players: Jamal Murray (-4.06); Alex Poythress (-5.72); James Young (-6.11); Willie Cauley-Stein (-6.37); Nerlens Noel (-8.16); DeAndre Liggins (-15.56); Trey Lyles (-17.35); Darius Miller (-29.67); Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (-39.85); Patrick Patterson (-43.06); Rajon Rondo (-49.77); Andrew Harrison (-49.98); Skal Labissiere (-51.77); Jodie Meeks (-56.26); Malik Monk (-73.90); De'Aaron Fox (-140.69); Tyler Ulis (-152.27) 

    Admit it: You're shocked. Floored. Beyond words and sounds and death stares. The Kentucky Wildcats topping this list is among the biggest surprises of the year—sandwiched right up between JaVale McGee not leading the NBA in three-pointers and the Toronto Raptors winning more games than the Orlando Magic.

    (Puts on real-talk hat.)

    OK, obviously, you're not surprised. Kentucky cornered the market on incumbent talent last year, and nothing's changed. Nor does it appear on the verge of changing anytime soon. Second-place UCLAers can take pride in their close proximity to former Wildcats. But this year's gap is artificially manageable. 

    Kentucky's score, while perfect, would be insurmountable in the TPA department if DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) and John Wall (knee) weren't missing time with serious injuries. And the chasm should only grow.

    Cousins' future is up in the air. Achilles injuries tend to alter careers. He could go from being recognized as a top-15 star to devolving into something significantly less dominant. But Kentucky has other alumni on the rise who will, collectively, offset his potential drop-off.

    Karl-Anthony Towns, now an All-Star, is already doing his part. Devin Booker's offense is outweighing his struggles on defense—which, when hailing from the Phoenix Suns, says something. De'Aaron Fox is new enough to retain his star ceiling. Jamal Murray's toned-down Damian Lillard impression bodes well for his own future.

    The list goes on. Julius Randle is frisky. Maybe the Sacramento Kings hit on one of Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere. Perhaps Malik Monk finds his shot—and meaningful playing time—as a sophomore. The books on Trey Lyles and Nerlens Noel are still being written. 

    Oh, and by the way: Anthony Davis just turned 25.

    Indeed, this might be the first year since 2009 Kentucky doesn't have someone going in the top 10 of the draft. Freshman forward Kevin Knox is right on the cusp. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has him going at No. 10 in his latest mock. 

    It doesn't matter. The Wildcats can afford an off year in the prospect pageant. Their immediate and long-term future atop this totem pole is secure.

           

    Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, NBA Math or Basketball Reference and accurate leading into games on March 13.

    Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.

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