GO WITH THE FLOE

Just when you thought a happy holiday meant banishing all talk of hurricanes and getting the FEMA tarps off your roof, here comes more cheery news.

A scientific study released last week — but ignored by most Floridians — reported that the polar ice caps are melting. And although that’s sad for polar bears and Eskimos and those who live in the area, here’s the real kick in the knickers for Floridians: The ice caps are melting so fast, scientists say, that much of the Florida coastline may be underwater by 2099.

Oh, woe is us.

Until now, all this talk of global warming seemed so distant, so next century.

We Americans could gleefully tool around in gas-hogging SUVs, confident that any major impact on the Earth would happen centuries from now.

But when the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report came out Nov. 8, the effect of our fossil-fuel-burning ways became clear. Although some of the Earth’s warming can be attributed to natural causes, there’s no doubt, scientists say, that humans have contributed to the problem.

In Alaska, parts of Canada and Russia, temperatures are 4 to 7 degrees higher than 50 years ago. Scientists say the Earth is warming faster than at any time in millions of years, suggesting it’s not part of a natural pattern.

The Eskimos’ way of life already is changing — hunters have fallen through ice on traditional hunting grounds; the polar bear may face extinction; and Alaska’s roads, buildings and bridges may crumble because they’re built on now-thawing permafrost.

Of course, the selfish among us will wonder: How does this affect me?

Well, if you own an oceanfront condo in Cocoa Beach or New Smyrna, you don’t have to worry about passing it on to your grandchildren. By the time the kids are in college, the condos may be crumbling into the sea.

And South Beach?

As they say in New York, fuhgeddaboutit.

Miami could become the next Atlantis, Fort Lauderdale the next Venice (and we don’t mean Venice, Florida). In fact, much of South Florida may eventually look like a scene from Kevin Costner’s Waterworld.

However, for people in Central Florida, there could be a silver lining: Sure, Miami, Fort Lauderdale and St. Petersburg may be submerged, but Bithlo will be oceanfront property.

And downtown Orlando should be hot, hot, hot.

(In more ways than one. The temperature is expected to be 5 degrees warmer, and droughts will be more frequent.)

FAST PACE

That the ice caps are melting isn’t big news in the scientific community. What’s new is how quickly the ice is melting, says Terrence Quinn at the University of South Florida’s college of marine science.

“What’s striking to me about the report,” says Quinn, “is the rate of change is about twice what they thought it was.” And that gives Americans and the rest of the world less time to take corrective action.

More frightening, says Jonathan Overpeck, a professor in the University of Arizona’s geosciences department, is that the meltdown of the world’s ice caps and glaciers could accelerate.

Already, large ice shelves are breaking off the west coast of Antarctica, sending sheets of ice the size of Rhode Island into the sea. One computer model predicts that by 2070, the Arctic will be so warm it will no longer have ice in the summer. By 2090, Overpeck says, the oceans could rise 3 feet.

In Florida — and in low-lying coastal regions of Louisiana — that will have devastating consequences.

“Florida is pretty much posed for the earliest, big, bad effects of global warming,” says Overpeck.

A RISING OPPORTUNITY?

So what, you may ask, will Central Florida be like in 100 years?

Here’s a clue: If you hate hurricanes, start packing.

As the ice caps and glaciers melt, all that fresh water could re-route the Gulf Stream, leading to a longer hurricane season. And, though there’s no scientific consensus on this, Overpeck thinks hurricanes will grow more intense.

Because of the increased frequency of hurricanes, Florida will get lots of rain. But the state — and many parts of the country — also will experience more frequent droughts, Overpeck says. And beach erosion will worsen dramatically, as frequent storms and greater winds wipe away whatever beach remains.

“The climate system,” he says, “has lots of surprises in store for us.”

None of this spells a rosy future for Florida.

“In global warming, there are bigger losers and smaller losers,” says Overpeck. “I think Florida’s a sure bet to be a big loser.”

But Americans have a penchant for seeing opportunity in a downturn. That led us to wonder what a savvy real estate investor would do with the knowledge that the coast might be swamped in less than 100 years.

Buy in Mount Dora, where the elevation is 175 feet above sea level? Or start coveting high points in Orlando like, say, the property on which Hillcrest Elementary sits?

Suddenly, “all of Lake County sounds like the place to be,” says real estate investor John DuBrule.

DuBrule, who owns an 83-acre tract in Lake, figures he’s sitting pretty. He also owns a 75-acre farm in Ohio, in case Florida becomes unlivable for his children or grandchildren. But he’s not so sure about a 1,200-acre farm he owns just three miles from the Gulf coast.

He’s not sweating it, though.

“I figure there’s a lot of money to be made between now and then,” says DuBrule. “My grandkids will hopefully invest wisely.”

Some people will head for the hills when the water starts rising.

For them, Jackie Sanderson, a real estate agent in Orlando, recommends northern Georgia and parts of Alabama. “The mountains of North Carolina are already too expensive,” she says. But if you’ve got speculating in your blood, she’s got a little advice. “Go buy on the Indian River. Eventually, you’ll have beachfront property.”