Dancing with the Stars returns for yet another season this fall, and there will be a whopping four athletes battling it out for a disco ball trophy. We know athletes including Emmitt Smith, Apolo Anton Ohno, Hines Ward, Donald Driver, Shawn Johnson and Kristi Yamaguchi have taken home the title, so it’s time to handicap how this year’s group will fare.

(Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Laurie Hernandez — 4/1

Why she’ll win: The bonkers athleticism of a gymnast combined with skyrocketing popularity after the Final Five was one of the biggest Olympic stories this year? It’s a winning combo. Plus, she’ll probably get some good advice from Johnson, who won in 2009.

Why she won’t: There isn’t much you can point out, except that she doesn’t have much dancing experience, according to what she told People:

“I did take ballet when I was a little girl, but I don’t really remember it. And it was nothing like the training I’ll get now.”

(Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports)

Ryan Lochte — 6/1

Why he’ll win: We know he’s a terrific athlete. We also know he was uber-popular before the Rio Olympics, between him racking up medals and his reality show. The controversy he was mired in from Brazil? There could be backlash to the backlash, a “we still love you, Ryan!” sentiment that carries him all the way to the top.

Why he won’t: Pretty much everything that happened in the last month might be too much to overcome.

(Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports)

Calvin Johnson — 7/1

Why he’ll win: The former Lions superstar has a couple of things going for him. The first is history: Three NFLers won the show, and two of them were receivers. The second is his athleticism. He made incredible, insane, jaw-dropping catches during his career and he’ll have no trouble with the tough training and rehearsing.

Why he won’t: Just watch this E:60 feature. HIS OWN SISTER SAYS HE CAN’T DANCE!!

(AP Photo/Randy Holt)

James Hinchcliffe — 12/1

Why he’ll win: You can’t count him out at all. This is the same driver who suffered horrifying injuries in a crash during Indy 500 practice over a year ago (see below) and who came back from the incident. You can expect he’ll work his hardest to win it all.

Why he won’t: The only problem is the IndyCar driver is a lesser-known name — while Castroneves won in 2007, he was an Indy 500 winner by that point. From a popularity point of view, Hinchcliffe will start out at a slight disadvantage in comparison to his athlete counterparts.