Draft analysis: Kyler Murray's football chances trump baseball chances

And then there were two. Kyler Murray’s options are down to the NFL or the Oakland Athletics’ organization. Murray declared for the NFL Draft on Monday, meaning he’s ineligible to return to OU, so long as he doesn’t change his mind before Thursday.

No one really believed Murray was considering another Sooner season. That was fantasy land for Lincoln Riley, Gil Brandt, OU fans and a Big 12 Conference that has prospered immeasurably by four straight years of Baker Mayfield/Murray quarterbacking.

The real decision comes now. Pro baseball or pro football? Most people believe Murray is swaying toward football, and that certainly seems the case. I wrote in the Monday Oklahoman how Murray’s path to professional athletic success is much more clear in football than in baseball. Murray already has mastered the equivalent of Triple-A football. That’s college football. We have no idea if Murray can even be adequate in Triple-A baseball. You can read that column here.

But to help Murray with his decision, there are loads of data. Athletes don’t always rely on data. They believe in themselves and figure they are immune from the forces of the past, and that’s what makes them great in the first place. But the data is valuable to the rest of us.

I went back and looked at 10 years worth of drafts. The NFL Draft from 2009-18; the baseball draft from 2008-17. The 2018 baseball draft is too recent to give us much of a gauge, and in some ways so is 2017’s, but 2017 remains relevant in Murray’s case because while patience matters in baseball, it doesn’t matter quite as much when a guy has a football option.

I set up parameters. First-round selections only. Murray was a first-round pick of the Athletics last June. Murray is expected to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, and if he gets much feedback that he won’t be a first-rounder, that could make him a lot more interested in baseball.

So first-rounders. In football, I went with quarterbacks only. Comparing Murray to a linebacker or an offensive tackle seems senseless. And in baseball, I limited it to non-pitchers, because pitchers always have a different course, and I limited it to college players. The career paths of players who sign straight out of high school is much different from players who sign straight out of college.

Seems like a good way to determine Murray’s chances in either sport. And I don’t care about money. I know Murray and his agents are talking money. But he doesn’t really care about the kind of money we’re talking about. You think Murray really is motivated by the difference potentially making $75 million in his career or $100 million in his career? That’s not his driving force. That’s not how he became a superb practitioner of each sport.

Murray is motivated to be the best he can be in either sport. Which sport gives him the best chance at stardom? Which sport gives him the best chance at playing regularly?

Let’s look at the data.

FOOTBALL

First-round draft pick quarterbacks almost always get a chance to run a team. They don’t always succeed. They don’t always keep the job. They don’t always get a ton of chances. Some NFL teams bolt on a quarterback quickly. But Murray will get the chance, if he goes football.

In 2018, five quarterbacks were taken in the first round. All became starters by mid-season.

The Browns’ Baker Mayfield, the Jets’ Sam Darnold and the Cardinals’ Josh Rosen made 13 starts each. The Bills’ Josh Allen made 11 starts. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson made eight starts, counting the AFC quarterfinals.

All but Rosen were widely hailed, either by their play or their handling of tough situations that bode well for the future. Rosen and the Cardinals had a rough season, but Arizona hired a new coach, Kliff Kingsbury, ostensibly to fix that. We’ll see.

In 2017, Mitch Trubisky (Bears), Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) and Deshaun Watson (Texans) were first-round quarterbacks. All three already have taken their teams to the playoffs and are either stars or considered star-caliber.

In 2016, Jared Goff (Rams), Carson Wentz (Eagles) and Paxton Lynch (Broncos) were first-rounders. Goff and Wentz already are franchise quarterbacks with bright futures. Lynch made four starts for Denver but is considered a bust and is on the open market.

2015: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) and Marcus Mariota (Titans) have been starters since their rookie years. Winston has had an up-and-down career, and Mariota has occasionally been injured. But they have played and played a bunch.

2014: Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Johnny Manziel (Browns) and Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings) were first-rounders. Bortles led Jacksonville to the 2017 AFC title game but struggled in 2018. Bridgewater was a budding star before a catastrophic injury. Manziel made eight starts but was a total bust.

2013: E.J. Manuel (Bills) made 18 starts but was ineffective and now is out of the league.

2012: Andrew Luck (Colts), Robert Griffin III (Redskins),  Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins) and Brandon Weeden (Browns) were first-rounders. Luck is a star. Tannehill has been Miami’s franchise quarterback, though not necessarily a good one. RG3 was excellent as a rookie but faltered; he’s made 40 career starts but is barely hanging on in the NFL. Same with Weeden, who has made 25 career starts.

2011: Cam Newton (Panthers), Jake Locker (Titans), Blaine Gabbert (Jaguars) and Christian Ponder (Vikings). Newton is a star. Locker made 23 starts but was ineffective and is out of the league. Ponder was a bust. Gabbert has made 48 starts but now is a backup.

2010: Sam Bradford (Rams) and Tim Tebow (Broncos). Bradford was a long-time starter but never a star. Tebow was a rookie sensation but that was a mirage. He made 14 starts but has long been out of the league.

2009: Matthew Stafford (Lions), Mark Sanchez (Jets) and Josh Freeman (Buccaneers). All became franchise QBs – Sanchez has made 73 starts, Freeman made 61 – but only Stafford kept that status.

So that’s 30 first-round quarterbacks the last 10 years. Three could absolutely be labeled stars – Mahomes, Luck and Newton. But five could be considered quality candidates to reach that status – Mayfield, Trubisky, Watson, Goff and Wentz.

Stafford deserves a category of his own. He’s not a star. But he’s a really good quarterback for a woebegone franchise and has provided more than stability and professionalism. Any team that drafts a quarterback who turns out to be as good as Matthew Stafford would have to be pleased.

Next would come a class of solid. Mariota fits here. Tannehill fits here. Bradford and Sanchez did fit here. Bridgewater, too, who gets an asterisk because of the knee injury. 

Following that, flashes. Quarterbacks who showed stretches of being what teams needed them to be, but it didn’t or hasn’t lasted. Winston. Bortles. Freeman.

A journeyman group would include Gabbert, Griffin and Weeden. Never really made it but still in the league as backups.

And finally busts – Lynch, Manziel, Manuel, Ponder, Locker and Tebow. Not all busts are created equal. Locker made 23 starts. Tebow won a playoff game. Both are a long way from Paxton Lynch and Johnny Manziel. But still, a bust. Basically wasted draft picks.

Plus, you’ve got the five 2018 rookies, who could range from star to journeyman – I don’t really see a bust, though you never know.

So let’s not count Jackson, Rosen, Darnold or Allen. We’ll count Mayfield, because reviving the Browns already counts as a monumental career achievement. That’s 26 first-round quarterbacks the last 10 years.

Eight are stars or getting there quick – 30.7 percent. Heck, count Stafford as something just slightly less than a star, and that’s 33.3 percent.

Five other solid quarterbacks – so that’s 53.8 percent of the picks had or are having at least solid NFL careers in which they led a team for a good number of years.

Three other quarterbacks got more than a small chance to show what they could do. Winston, Bortles and Freeman can’t say they weren’t giving ample opportunity, and Winston and Bortles are still getting those chances. That’s 65.4 percent. Basically, what we’re saying is that two thirds of the first-round quarterback picks became established starters, over multiple years.

Only 11.5 percent became journeymen but 23.1 percent were busts. So that’s about a third who did NOT have good careers.

And on the surface, that seems sort of right, doesn’t it? About two thirds of first-round quarterbacks have at least solid NFL careers. I mean, stardom is promised to no one this side of Peyton Manning. If Kyler Murray had a Sam Bradford-type NFL career, Murray would have to say, well, I gave it a shot and had some good times.

So how does that compare to baseball?

BASEBALL

I won’t bore you with all the names. Well, heck, this is a blog. I’ll give you the names. Why not?

Here’s how I broke it down, with help from my baseball-loving pals Nathan Ruiz and Ryan Aber. Again, I used only non-pitchers and only players drafted from a college. I did include junior college players.

2017: No one from the 2017 first round has made it to the major leagues, but that’s to be expected. That would be uncommon acceleration. Of the eight players in the group, only one, Kentucky’s Evan White, has made it to Triple-A, and that was just for 18 at-bats. Brendan McKay from Louisville is considered a future star. Here’s the list, with their highest attained level. Brendan McKay, Louisville (A); Pavin Smith, Virginia (A); Adam Hasaeley, Virginia (AA); Keston Huira, Cal-Irvine (AA); Jake Burger, Missouri State (A); Evan White, Kentucky (AAA); Logan Warmoth, North Carolina (A); Jeren Kendall, Vanderbilt (A).

2016: Of the six players in question, none has yet to make it to the majors, which again, is not uncommon. Tennessee’s Nick Senzel is considered a future star. Only two of the six have made it to Triple-A, which strikes me as a little odd. The list -- Nick Senzel, Tennessee (AAA); Corey Ray, Louisville (AA); Zack Collins, Miami (AA); Kyle Lewis, Mercer (AA); Matt Thais, Virginia (AAA); Will Craig, Wake Forest (AA).

2015: Six of nine have made it to the majors. Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi are borderline stars. Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ are regulars.  Kevin Newman and D.J. Stewart have played sparingly. The list, with the year of reaching the majors -- Dansby Swanson, Vanderbilt (2016); Alex Bregman, LSU (2016); Andrew Benintendi, Arkansas (2016); Ian Happ, Cincinnati (2017); Kevin Newman, Arizona (2018); Richie Martin, Florida (AA); D.J. Stewart, Florida State (2018); Taylor Ward, Fresno State (2018); Kyle Holder, San Diego (AA).

2014: Six of eight have made it to the majors. Kyle Schwarber is maybe not a star but really good. Michael Conforto, Trea Turner and Matt Chapman are solid regulars. Bradley Zimmer spent most of last season injured but likely would have been a regular, too. The list -- Kyle Schwarber, Indiana (2015); Michael Conforto, Oregon State (2015); Max Pentecost, Kennesaw State (AA); Trea Turner, North Carolina State (2015); Casey Gillaspie, Wichita State (AAA); Bradley Zimmer, San Francisco (2017); Matt Chapman, Cal State-Fullerton (2017); Alex Blandino, Stanford (2018).

2013: Again, six of eight made the majors. Kris Bryant is a star. Hunter Renfroe and Tim Anderson are regulars. The list -- Kris Bryant, San Diego (2015); Colin Moran, North Carolina (2016); Hunter Dozier, Stephen F. Austin (2018); D.J. Peterson, New Mexico (AAA); Hunter Renfroe, Mississippi State (2016); Tim Anderson, East Central juco (2016); Eric Jagielo, Notre Dame (AAA); Phillip Ervin, Samford (2017).

2012: Four of six have made the majors. Mike Zunino and Tyler Naquin are regulars. The list -- Mike Zunino, Florida (2013); Tyler Naquin, Texas A&M (2016); James Ramsey, Florida State (AAA); Devin Marrero, Arizona State (2015); Richie Shaffer, Clemson (2015); Victor Roache, Georgia Southern (AAA).

2011: Six of seven made the majors. Anthony Rendon and George Springer are borderline stars. Kolten Wong, Joe Panik and C.J. Cron are regulars. Cory Spangenberg is a little above journeyman. The list -- Anthony Rendon, Rice (2013); Cory Spangenberg, Indian River (2014); George Springer, Connecticut (2014); C.J. Cron, Utah (2014); Kolten Wong, Hawaii (2013); Joe Panik, St. John’s (2014); Levi Michael, North Carolina (AAA).

2010: Six of seven made the majors. Yasmani Grandal is a regular. The list -- Christian Colon, Cal State-Fullerton (2014); Michael Choice, Texas-Arlington (2013); Yasmani Grandal, Miami (2012); Kolbrin Vitek, Ball State (AA); Gary Brown, Cal State-Fullerton (2014); Zack Cox, Arkansas (AAA); Kyle Parker, Clemson (2014). Note: I did not include Bryce Harper, who was drafted out of Southern Nevada Junior College. Harper graduated high school early, enrolled in juco and was taken No. 1 overall.

2009: Four of five made the majors. A.J. Pollock is a regular. Dustin Ackley was for awhile. The list --  Dustin Ackley, North Carolina (2011); Tony Sanchez, Boston College (2013); Grant Green, USC (2013); A.J. Pollock, Notre Dame (2012); Jared Mitchell, LSU (AAA).

2008: Twelve of 13 made the majors. Buster Posey is a star. Pedro Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, Jason Castro and Justin Smoak each made an all-star team. Jemile Weeks, Brett Wallace, Ike Davis and Gordon Beckham were or are regulars. The list -- Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt (2010); Buster Posey, Florida State (2009); Yonder Alonso, Miami (2010); Gordon Beckham, Georgia (2009); Jason Castro, Stanford (2010); Justin Smoak, South Carolina (2010); Jemile Weeks, Miami (2011); Brett Wallace, Arizona State (2010); David Cooper, Cal-Berkeley (2011); Ike Davis, Arizona State (2010); Reese Havens, South Carolina (AAA); Alan Dykstra, Wake Forest (2015); Lonnie Chisenhall, Pitt Community (2011).

We won’t count 2016 and 2017, though it’s quite instructive to remember those 14 players. Baseball players have a wait, sometimes a long wait, before reaching the major leagues. Kyler Murray will be on an Oakland fast track if he chooses baseball, but he also hasn’t played that much baseball since high school. Hard to imagine Murray making the Athletics’ roster, other than a September callup when the rosters expand to 40, until at least 2021, even if things go swimmingly in the minor leagues.

So how have the other first-round picks fared. Of the 63 non-pitchers drafted out of colleges from 2008-15, 50 of 63 made the majors. That sounds like a good percentage, and it is, .794. Virtually 80 percent. Of course, 100 percent of NFL first-round picks make the NFL. This just shows how hard is the game of baseball. This probably doesn’t affect Murray. Seems impossible to imagine Murray not reaching the big leagues, even if his play doesn’t warrant. The A’s and Major League Baseball would have invested too much by then not to get him at least a major-league look.

OK, how about stars? I counted 11 either stars or borderline stars. That’s 17.5 percent.

How about regulars? Guys who earned everyday jobs and were in the lineup most games for multiple years? I counted 20. That’s 31.7 percent. So almost 50 percent of the study group became everyday players.

That leaves 19, about 30.1 percent, who were journeymen or just had a token appearance. Doesn’t matter how those break down. Murray doesn’t want to be in either group.

COMPARISON

So let’s compare. What first-round draft choices have a better chance at a distinguished career – quarterbacks or baseball players.

In the last 10 years, 30.7 percent of first-round draft quarterbacks became stars or seem virtually automatic to. Baseball countered with 17.5 percent stars.

In the last 10 years, 65.4 percent of first-round draft quarterbacks became at least multi-year starters, commissioned with leading the franchise. In baseball, 49.2 percent of the first-round picks became multi-year regulars.

In the last 10 years, 11.5 percent of first-round draft quarterbacks became journeymen, players who may have started some but really are just hanging on in the NFL. In baseball, 30.1 percent were bit players just hanging on.

In the last 10 years,  23.1 percent of first-round draft quarterbacks were busts, guys who got a chance but didn’t produce and soon were out of the league. In baseball, 20.6 percent never made the majors.

The numbers actually are a little closer than I thought. I went into this believing the NFL would have a massive advantage. And the NFL does have a clear edge. Much better chance to be a star. Solid better chance to be a really good player. And for a career that Murray doesn’t want – just a journeyman or a bust – the percentage is 34.6 percent in the NFL, 50.7 percent chance in baseball.

Those numbers tell the story. The chances of success for Kyler Murray are better in football than in baseball.