May 'could announce departure date on Friday' – as it happened

In his Telegraph debate with the Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable, Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, claimed that a big win for his party in the European elections tomorrow would bring down Theresa May - and possibly Jeremy Corbyn too. He also said a victory on that scale would kill off the prospects of a second referendum. He said:

If we get a big win for the Brexit party, we’ll kill of all thoughts of a second referendum, because Vince’s side will realise they simply can’t win it. And I also think that, if these opinion polls we’re looking at this morning are anything like right, we’ll get rid of Mrs May incredibly quickly. We may even see the end of Jeremy Corbyn too.

Farage was referring to the lastest YouGov poll for the Times, which shows his party widening its lead. Here are the figures.

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Here is a chart showing the trend.

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And here is an extract from Matthew Smith’s write-up for YouGov.

The final YouGov/Times European parliament voting intention survey before the election finds the Brexit party continuing to dominate with 37% of the vote, having been on 35% in last week’s survey.

The Lib Dems tighten their grip on second place, holding a six-point lead over third-placed Labour. Close to one in five people now say they intend to vote for the Lib Dems (19%, from 16% last week) compared to 13% for Labour (from 15%). In fact the Green party is now snapping at Labour’s heels for third place, being only one point behind on 12% (having been on 10% last week).

The Conservatives now sit in a distant fifth place, with just 7% of people planning to back the Tories (from 10% last week). Change UK are now on 4% (from 5%), votes for UKIP stand at 3% (unchanged), and voting intention for all other parties stands at 6%.

It is worth pointing out that YouGov are unusual amongst pollsters in putting Labour below the Lib Dems in this contest. Other pollsters have Labour ahead of the Lib Dems, sometimes by a wide margin. The website What UK Thinks has a chart featuring all Euro elections polling (last updated at the end of last week.)

The results of the European elections will be counted on Sunday night. The Brexit party seems to be on course for a big victory, but there will be a lot of interest in whether the combined no-deal Brexit vote (the Brexit party and Ukip) outnumbers the combined second referendum vote (the Lib Dems, the Greens, Change UK, the SNP and Plaid Cymru). All the poll suggests that this contest will be close.

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ConservativeHome, the website for Conservative activists which is widely read by party members, is saying Theresa May should quit as soon as possible. Here is an extract from an article by its editor, the former Tory MP Paul Goodman.

The 1922 Committee executive meets today. It has already pointed the prime minister towards the exit door. It should now take her gently by the arm, and steer her through it as soon as possible. A new leader should be in place by the end of this parliamentary session.

The Conservative party is in a wretched place this morning. The vultures are circling overhead. Here are some Twitter despatches giving an insight into the state of play.

From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

From Sky’s Beth Rigby

From my colleague Heather Stewart

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From the Sun’s Steve Hawkes

This is from my colleague Graeme Wearden.

As my colleague Robert Booth reports, Philip Alston, the UN rapporteur on extreme poverty, has published his final report on povery in the UK. It compares Conservative welfare policies to the creation of 19th-century workhouses and warns that unless austerity is ended, the UK’s poorest people face lives that are “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short”.

There is a link to the full text of the 21-page report here (pdf).

The report is not about Brexit, but it does say Brexit will probably have a “major adverse impact” on the poor. It says:

If Brexit proceeds, it is likely to have a major adverse impact on the most vulnerable.

But it also suggests Brexit could be an opportunity.

Brexit presents an opportunity to reimagine what the United Kingdom stands for. Legislative recognition of social rights should be a central part of that reimagining. And social inclusion, rather than increasing marginalisation of the working poor and those unable to work, should be the guiding principle of social policy.

Alex Wickham at BuzzFeed is keeping a tally of the Conservative MPs who say they will vote against the EU withdrawal agreement bill (Wab) at second reading (assuming there is a vote - see 9.26am). Some 34 Conservatives voted against Theresa May’s deal in the third and last vote. According to Wickham, another 35 backbenchers have joined them in the rebel camp, taking the total number who will vote against the Wab to 69.

Two pro-European peers have announced that they are voting Lib Dem in the European elections, even though they sit in the House of Lords representing other parties.

This is from Andrew Cooper, a former director of strategy for David Cameron in Downing Street.

In response, the Tories said Cooper would lose the party whip. A party spokesman said:

Publicly endorsing the candidates of another party is not compatible with taking the Conservative whip in Parliament. As a result, the chief whip in the House of Lords has informed Lord Cooper of Windrush that he will have the Conservative whip suspended. This will be reviewed if he is willing to support Conservative candidates at future elections.

And these are from Michael Cashman, the former actor and former MEP, who until today was a Labour peer.

Here is some Twitter comment on the Michael Gove Today interview.

From the BBC’s Norman Smith

From the Guardian’s Paul Johnson

From the BBC’s Nick Robinson

From Sky’s Lewis Goodall

In 2016, during the Conservative leadership contest, Michael Gove famously declared that, on the basis of his experience as Boris Johnson’s campaign manager, he had concluded that Johnson was not fit to be prime minister.

Now Gove has a different view. Asked about the prospect of a Johnson premiership, he said:

My view is that Boris served as foreign secretary with distinction. I enjoyed working with him. I have huge admiration for him ...

Boris Johnson is a Conservative of flair, elan, distinction and intellect. I think Boris will make his case and it’s important that we give him the chance to make his case.

Gove did not go as far as endorsing Johnson for leader, but that was not surprising because he is expected to declare his candidature himself.

All political leaders see their careers come to an end and often the end is wretched, because they are forced out through failure or unpopularity. To her credit, Theresa May has endured far longer than most people expected after she bungled the 2017 general election - George Osborne’s prediction about her being a “dead woman walking” almost two years ago turned out to be wrong - but now, particularly in the light of the dismal reception her “New Brexit Deal” is getting, her premiership seems to be on its deathbed.

This became evidence when Michael Gove, the environment secretary, was interviewed on the Today programme this morning. Gove is the cabinet’s most accomplished media performer, and Downing Street normally send him out when the stakes are particularly high. He was the minister who summed up for the government in the no-confidence vote in January, when he praised May handsomely. But today even Gove was struggling to pretend all was well.

There were three lines that particularly stood out.

• Gove suggested that the government might abandon the planned vote on the EU withdrawal agreement bill. He said the bill was being published today, and the government has already said it will get its second reading in the week beginning 3 June. But many Tories think there is no point in having a vote if the government is going to lose and Gove was evasive on whether the vote would take place. When Mishal Husain asked if the government was still going ahead with the vote, he replied:

There has been a lot of ‘sturm und drang’, a lot of summer lightning, of the course of the last 24 hours. But I think it is important that we all take a little bit of time and step back. Because ultimately we have three choices: we can either choose to leave the European Union with a deal, we can leave the European Union without a deal or we can stay in the European Union ...

Husain pointed out that Gove had not answered the question. For a second time he dodged it as he used his answer to criticise Labour. Later in the interview Husain tried again. She said Gove still had not said if the vote was going ahead. He replied:

I think that we will reflect over the course of the next few days on how people look at the proposition that has been put forward.

So it might not happen, Husain said. Gove replied:

No, I think there has to be a vote of on a withdrawal agreement implementation bill because one thing that we know is that, without a withdrawal agreement implementation bill, you can’t leave the European Union without a deal.

Rather than saying anything precipitate, I think that everyone should take an opportunity to reflect on what the prime minister will say later today and to look at the bill.

What was significant about this is that Gove was talking about a possible future vote on a withdrawal agreement bill, not on the withdrawal agreement bill. He was implying the vote could be delayed until a new PM drafts new legislation.

• Gove implied that the EU withdrawal agreement bill might have to be rewritten.

• Gove did not challenge suggestions that it was time for May to stand down. Asked if May should stay in post, he replied:

I think the most important thing we can do is reflect on all the options in front of us. I can understand the strong feelings - I have strong feelings - on leaving the European Union that have been aired and articulated over the course of the last 24 hours.

Husain said the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee might tried to force her out after the European elections and she asked if May would still be prime minister on Tuesday next week. At first Gove dodged the question, saying that as a cabinet minster he was not involved in 1922 Committee decision. When Husain pointed out that he was not even willing to say May would still be PM on Tuesday, he replied:

Oh, I think the prime minister will be prime minister next Tuesday, yes.

But, when asked for how long May would stay in office, Gove said that May had already, in a “gracious and self-sacrificing” way, agreed to stand down.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9am: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, gives a speech to the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland

9am: Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, and Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, take part in a Euro elections debate organised by the Telegraph. It is being streamed online here.

12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs.

After 1pm: May makes a statement to MPs about her so-called “New Brexit Deal”.

At some point today the government is also publishing its EU withdrawal agreement bill.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, but I will be mostly focusing on Brexit and May’s future as PM. I plan to post a summary when I wrap up at the end of the day.

You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.