Mortgage rates rise in aftermath of Trump election

While much attention has been focused on the surge in the U.S. stock market in the aftermath of the election of Donald Trump for president, his win also is having a profound effect in the housing market.

Long-term U.S. mortgage rates marked a fourth week of surges in the aftermath of Trump’s victory, reaching their highest levels this year.

Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan rose to 4.08% from 4.03% the previous week. The benchmark rate topped its 3.93% level of a year ago.

The rate on 15-year home loans, a popular choice for people who are refinancing, jumped to 3.34% from 3.25%.

Mortgage and real estate pros in the Milwaukee area say the numbers aren't necessarily surprising or concerning — for now.

The stock market has been streaking higher and the bond market has been headed in the opposite direction. When bond prices fall, their interest rates rise.

"The downside of that is higher mortgage rates," said Scott Stortz, broker/owner of Star Properties Inc., a residential real estate firm in Jackson. "It doesn’t necessarily surprise me that we are seeing this. I have seen this over and over and over. It’s just the ebbs and the flows of market conditions."

Stortz said he isn't seeing a stampede of people seeking to buy houses before interest rates move even higher, as expected.

The interest rates, coupled with the continuing lack of housing inventory on the market, are causing Stortz at least some concern.

"I hope, assuming rates continue to go up, that they go up very gradually so it’s not a huge shock to the system," Stortz said. "I’m still optimistic The sky’s not falling, but I'm going into 2017 a little more cautious."

Darrell Frenzel, owner of Wisconsin Wholesale Mortgage in Milwaukee, said the higher rates will slow the pace of refinancing, but, "For people buying a house, it’s still a great rate," near 4%, Frenzel said.

Frenzel offered this example: For a $250,000 loan at 4%, the monthly principal and interest is about $1,193. At 3.5% the payment is $1,122. "The payment went up $75," he said. "It’s not a whole lot, but it could make a difference. It depends on how big a payment you can afford."

Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas said that major life decisions and local housing inventory are bigger factors than interest rates for home buyers.

Meanwhile, long-term mortgage and interest rates have climbed in the weeks since Trump’s victory on Nov. 8.

Bond investors are looking toward tax cuts and increased government spending for infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges and airports under a Trump administration, which could fuel inflation. That would depress prices of long-term Treasury bonds because inflation would erode their value over time. When bond investors foresee rising inflation, they demand higher long-term yields and pay lower prices for bonds. Bond yields move opposite to prices and also influence long-term mortgage rates.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond stood at 2.38% Wednesday, the same as a week earlier and up from 1.87% on Election Day. It climbed to 2.45% Thursday morning, its highest level since July 2015.

More immediately, Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to raise the central bank’s benchmark rate at their Dec. 13-14 meeting for the first time in nearly a year. Fed Chair Janet Yellen recently told Congress that the case for a rate boost has “continued to strengthen.”

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The effect of rising mortgage rates could be seen in reduced activity by prospective home buyers. Applications for mortgage loans fell 9.4% in the week ended Nov. 25 from a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications for refinancing dipped 16%.

Higher mortgage rates, along with rising house prices, could eventually reduce demand for housing.

Still, if rates level off, Frenzel sees a robust market come spring. "I think there is a lot of pent-up demand," he said. "I think there is going to be a big boom this spring and summer. A 30-year fixed rate at 4%, that’s not going to affect all that many people."

Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist, is projecting that mortgage originations will fall in 2017 due to a sharp drop in refinancing. But he said in an email that new-purchase mortgages would increase about 10% in 2017 "based on the strengthening economy, employment and housing demand. The housing market will continue to do well so long as the job market remains strong, and we anticipate a further drop in the unemployment rate in 2017."

To calculate average mortgage rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country between Monday and Wednesday each week. The average doesn’t include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1% of the loan amount.

The average fee for a 30-year mortgage was unchanged this week at 0.5 point. The fee on 15-year loans also remained at 0.5 point.

Rates on adjustable five-year loans rose to 3.15% from 3.12%. The fee was steady at 0.4 point.

USAToday and the Associated Press contributed to this report.