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Revised Prediction for the 2014 Wolverines [BLOG]

By: Brian Chapman
@bchapsports

Just two weeks and a half ago I predicted the Michigan Wolverines would go 9-3 this season with losses to Minnesota, Michigan State and Ohio State. Then the Notre Dame game happened. Michigan didn't just lose at Notre Dame. They were embarrassed almost beyond my wildest dreams.

I thought they would show an improved running game, Devin Gardner would show more improvement as a passer, the Wolverines would show up in a road game no matter how good the Fighting Irish turned out to be, they would have more than one reliable wide receiver, Blake Countess would quickly emerge as a first round pick candidate and the linebackers would start to make plays.

I was wrong about all of that after the Notre Dame game.

Then they returned to the field last weekend only to struggle to separate themselves from a Miami of Ohio team that hasn't won a game since 2012.

When a team goes from me believing they will win to losing by 31 points and getting shutout for the first time since before I was born and then backs it up with a seven-point lead at halftime against one of the very worst teams in college football, it's probably time for a major revision in my prediction for the season.

What's their new best case scenario? 9-3. There's no way I can stick with 11-1. If everything goes right, Notre Dame will go 11-1 to soften the humiliation of the 31 point loss, there will be an extraordinary turnaround at Schembechler Hall and they'll beat everyone else on their schedule except for Michigan State and Ohio State.

What's their new worst case scenario? 3-9. After the Notre Dame and Miami of Ohio games, the worst case scenario can no longer be 5-7. Even though the Northwestern game is on the road, the Wildcats are so horrendous that the bottom could fall out and they'd still take care of business. Every other game on the schedule presents the possibility for a Michigan loss. Also, don't forget that Michigan was just a possession away from losing to Akron and UConn last year. Losing those two games would have handed them a losing season and no bowl game.

What do I think will actually happen? And what will Brady Hoke say after each game?

Game 4 vs. Utah: 45-41 win… A couple of weeks ago I did not think this would be a close game because Utah was coming off of consecutive 5-7 seasons. In the aftermath of the Notre Dame game and what Utah has done to start the season, things have changed and the Wolverines could very well lose this game. Utah is 2-0 and just beat Fresno State by 32pts last week. Last year Fresno State was pretty good for a non-BCS school, finishing at 11-2. The Utes also will have an extra week to prepare for Michigan as they don't have a game this weekend. In the end, Brady Hoke will spin a high scoring victory that gets the alums groaning once again, into, "I like the way our kids are playing heading into the Big Ten season. I like how they liked each other; I like how they played for Michigan and when you play for Michigan while liking each other, that's a powerful thing. I think you could see that on the defensive side of the ball considering we held Utah below 50 points."… Advance to 3-1.

Game 5 vs. Minnesota: 23-17 loss… I chalked this one up as a loss before the year started and I'm sticking with that. Though the Golden Gophers have not been impressive and TCU just smoked them over the weekend, all Big Ten teams have been weak in non conference play and Minnesota did finish with a better record than the Wolverines last year. I also firmly believe that last year's game would not have been a blowout had Jerry Kill not been ill. Minnesota knows that and the sour taste of last year's defeat will linger in their mouths from kickoff until they leave with the Little Brown Jug. This will be a close game, but a loss nonetheless and prompt Hoke to tell the media, "I think you guys are making too much out of one game. You gotta remember that we haven't lost a game in the division and if we run the table, then we're going to the Big Ten Championship Game which is exactly where we want to be. So I actually think we're sitting pretty right now."… Fall to 3-2.

Game 6 @ Rutgers: 34-21 win… I still can't stand RATgers! They are a fraudulent Big East school that was admitted into the Big Ten only to deliver the New York market to the Big Ten even though people in the Big Apple don't care about RATgers in the first place. The Scarlet Knights are an extremely weak 2-1 after squeaking by Washington State, giving up 25pts at home to Howard and throwing five interceptions at home against Penn State. The Wolverines won't look impressive, but they'll get the win. At his Monday afternoon press conference, Brady Hoke will highlight a critical stop by the defense on fourth down in the fourth quarter by saying, "that's why these guys are on scholarship. To play defense. You know, 'On my scholarship, I'm James Ross III, linebacker and I'm at Michigan to play defense.'"… Advance to 4-2.

Game 7 vs. We Are Penn State: 31-27 loss… I had Michigan eking out a win in my initial prediction, but after the Wolverines' loss to Notre Dame and a 3-0 start for the Nittany Lions, I'm making the switch. My alma mater will get the W. Though Hackenberg will throw a pick, he'll also pick on Blake Countess throughout the night, which was pretty disappointing against the Fighting Irish. After the game Hoke will answer a question about the five-game losing streak to Penn State by saying, "Well, I think there are a lot of things you can point to, a lot of different numbers that you want to bring up and certainly we would have liked to win the football game and they've got their little 'We Are, Penn State' chant, but I'll tell you one they don't have and that's a bunch of Michigan Men in their locker room. And when you've got that, you've got a lot going for you."… Fall to 4-3.

Game 8 @ Michigan State: 38-10 loss… This is going to be a blood bath. Michigan's offense will not look quite as bad as it did last year (for example they will rush for positive yards), but it will not look pretty. Connor Cook will shred the Wolverines in the first half and the Spartan rushing attack will milk the clock in the second half. After losing another game to the Spartans, Hoke will tell the media, "I think it's kind of silly for you to talk about Michigan falling off. I don't think we're falling off. The players and fans don't think we're falling off. When I speak to high school coaches, they know Michigan isn't falling off. They still want to send their kids to Michigan. We're right up there with the Alabama's, the Oregon's and the Ohio's of the college football world. This is Michigan."… Fall to 4-4.

Game 9 vs. Indiana: 33-19 win… Indiana has played two games. One was an 18pt win against lowly Indiana State. Their high powered offense from last year racked up 455yds rushing, but managed only 28pts against Larry Bird's alma mater. The second game was against Bowling Green. A Little Sisters of the Poor MAC school. The Falcons rolled up 45pts and dealt the Big Ten another humiliating loss on Saturday. It seems the Hoosiers could be worse than I originally thought and it may not turn into the last team with the ball winning. Unfortunately, the Wolverines will only average 2.7 yards per carry and force Brady Hoke to answer questions about his running backs to which he will say, "I think all of our backs played well. They didn't make any mistakes. They didn't put the ball on the ground. They were able to setup second and eight instead of second and eleven and I think when they're doing that and they're playing hard for Michigan, that's all you can ask of these kids."… Advance to 5-4.

Game 10 @ Northwestern: 46-24 win… Since the Wildcats are 0-2 at home against a bad Cal team and a MAC school, there is no reason for Michigan to worry about this game. I know it's on the road and Hoke doesn't fare well on the road, but I don't trust these nerds who spend all of their time studying and trying to unionize. Having clinched bowl eligibility with an impressive win, Brady Hoke will tell the media, "this is why you come to Michigan, to beat a good football team like Northwestern and play in championship type games. Now we may not be going to the Big Ten Championship Game multiplitively and consecutively like I imagined when I first came to Ann Arbor and we may not be playing for a Rose Bowl Championship, but we've still got a great chance to play for a Holiday Bowl Championship or a San Francisco Bowl Championship and I think that's a pretty special thing."… Advance to 6-4.

Game 11 vs. Maryland: 29-24 win… Maryland has an equal record than Michigan right now and already beat South Florida on the road by a touchdown, but Michigan should (they better) be a better team than South Florida this year and Hoke knows how to win games at The Big House. Considering it will be Senior Day, I see Michigan ending the home portion of the schedule with a win which will prompt Hoke to say, "this game is about the seniors coming together as a bunch of Michigan Men to win a game for us. These young men helped turn our season around without the benefit of a captain, only a few guys with Legends patches and a strong love for Michigan. I'm proud of this class of seniors who played the game the right way, played with all of the toughness that you'd expect out of a Michigan football team and can look back at four great years in the maize and blue knowing they did some things well and did some things not so well and this is Michigan!"… Advance to 7-4.

Game 12 @ Ohio State: 31-21 loss… The Buckeyes won't have Braxton Miller and, with Noah Spence serving a suspension for a second failed drug test, they may be without an important pass rusher for this game as well (but I doubt it. Like Urban Meyer is going to sit someone for ten games for a silly little narcotics violation.) The Deep South Buckeyes have also already lost at home this year. But there's no reason to get excited about a possible win. JT Barrett will most likely improve into a respectable quarterback by the end of the year, the problems with Hoke's teams on the road will continue and the Wolverines will lose again to Ohio State. During his postgame press conference, Hoke will sum up the season by stating, "we're a 7-5 football team, we didn't block, we didn't cover, we turned the ball over, we didn't get off of our blocks well, we lost to Ohio, but this is Michigan so we have a lot more positive things to take from this game than negatives and… uh… that's the way things are."… Fall to 7-5.

A 7-5 record including a .500 record in a wretched year for the Big Ten conference will leave most fans wanting Brady Hoke to be forever banished from Ann Arbor. I just don't know that that will be quite bad enough to kick him to the curb and the Wolverines will be forced to attempt to rise from mediocrity once again in 2015.

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