Orlando holiday shoppers should start searching the shelves now, experts say

The Colonial Photo & Hobby store in Orlando only has about half of the train sets it needs for the holiday shopping season.

“Everything should be in the store now,” owner Steve Rausch said. “But the shipping containers aren’t here for a lot of the products.”

The longtime Orlando business normally sees holiday shopping kick off in October, and this year Rausch wants his customers to know they should definitely be doing it now. He is far from alone in recommending shoppers get ahead so supply chain issues don’t keep them from getting the perfect gifts.

“Anything you’re going to buy, buy it now because we don’t know what’s going to happen,” Rausch said.

U.S. shoppers are expected to spend $997.73 on gifts and other items this holiday season, on par with last year, according to a survey released Thursday by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

“Every year retailers plan their seasonal inventory, staffing and product promotions well in advance for the busy holiday season,” NRF CEO Matthew Shay said in a news release. “Consumers are ready to celebrate, and gift-giving is high on the list.

But Shay acknowledged the supply chain issues this season.

“The retail industry is working diligently with ports, labor, shippers and transportation providers as well as government officials to overcome supply chain challenges and make sure consumers have access to the gifts they want to give and, just as important, receive,” he said.

Coronavirus in Asia has delayed the loading of ships heading to the United States while equipment and labor shortages along with truck and rail capacity issues have worsened congestion at American ports, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said.

A report from Hackett Associates and the NRF released earlier this month said congestion has backed up goods, but imports at the country’s largest retail container ports should stay at near-record levels.

The White House revealed last week the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which bring in 40% of containers into the country, were moving toward operating around the clock.

“Consumers should be able to find what they need, but it’s always safer to shop early than wait until the last minute,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

Axel Stock, an associate professor of marketing at the University of Central Florida, doesn’t expect to see whole groups of products completely sold out, but he said shoppers should buy items at brick and mortar stores instead of online.

“If you need a very specific item, then your best bet is to order it early, buy it when it is on the shelf,” Stock said. “Maybe shift some of your purchases that you would typically do online. Instead, go to the store. If the product is on the shelf, you can take it home with you.”

Stock said shoppers shouldn’t wait until Black Friday if they are looking for a particular gift.

The discount-laden, traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season has seen crowds diminish in recent years, with online purchases, earlier bargains and fears about the coronavirus pandemic last year.

Stock expects Black Friday will be stronger this year because much of the population is vaccinated against COVID-19, but some will still not want to go out to fight with others.

“People don’t camp in front of stores anymore,” Stock said.

Walmart revealed this week it will spread out its Black Friday deals over three events throughout November called “Black Friday Deals for Days,” similar to what the retailer did last year.

The first of Walmart’s events will have savings on toys and electronics and will start online Nov. 3 before happening in stores on Nov. 5.

In addition to shipping issues, Colonial Photo & Hobby’s Rausch points to decreased inventory after what he describes as “having a Christmas way back in March” when people spent their federal stimulus checks.

“They already went through a bunch of inventory,” he said.

And the decrease in train offerings means less of a gift that has always done well, especially at Christmastime.

“I think because they move, younger kids are drawn to things that move,” Rausch said. “Something about trains just draws the kids to them.”

Rausch said the supply issues also are affecting cameras.

“You have to wait for them,” Rausch said. “We could sell more than what we’re selling.”

But not everyone necessarily needs to follow the advice to snap up gifts now.

Sydney O’Hare, 29, of Orlando, was at Colonial Photo & Hobby on Wednesday with her husband, Trevor O’Hare, and their almost 7-month-old son, Rory.

The new parents haven’t really started shopping for Christmas yet, said Trevor O’Hare, 32.

“I’m not necessarily worried about it, because really we’re just trying to make sure he has fun and has a good Christmas,” he said. “So if we can’t get the exact items that we want, we’ll still be able to get him something.”

He later joked, “He doesn’t have a Christmas list.”

afuller@orlandosentinel.com