St. Louis Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked pretty bad in their season-opening loss to Carolina at home last week.

Fortunately for the Bucs, the St. Louis Rams turned in an even worse performance at home and now have to visit Tampa Bay in Week 2 with a question mark at quarterback.

The Rams have dropped four of their last five road games both straight up and against the spread. This is another Week 2 game where a bad team is laying seven points (Washington is the other), and handicapping logic says you bet against a bad favorite.

Point Spread

The Buccaneers opened as 4.5-point favorites and were inexplicably bet up to seven points by Thursday at most shops monitored by Odds Shark; the total was 38. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 19.2-14.2 Rams

Why the Rams Can Cover the Spread

There is some good news for St. Louis: The Buccaneers did not look like a cohesive team offensively in their 20-14 loss to the Panthers in Week 1.

Tampa’s offense was being hyped in the preseason with the addition of QB Josh McCown, but the team struggled then and did not look any better to open the regular season.

The Bucs have now scored 14 points or fewer in eight of their last 10 games, including the preseason and dating back to last year.

That should at least give the Rams some hope along with the fact that Tampa is just 1-11 SU in its last 12 home games against NFC opponents, according to the Bucs-Rams preview at Odds Shark.

Why the Buccaneers Can Cover the Spread

It may take a little while for the Buccaneers to get comfortable under new head coach Lovie Smith, but there’s no denying there is talent on their roster.

McCown looked like a backup QB not ready to take over as a full-time starter against the Panthers, but he remains a veteran who enjoyed some success last year in Chicago and can certainly bounce back in this spot.

Tampa does not yet know who will be under center for the Rams, but neither option should be an issue. Last week’s St. Louis starter, Shaun Hill, looked shaky when he was in the game before leaving with a thigh injury, and Austin Davis was not much better.

Hill and Davis each threw an interception and were sacked a combined five times for 27 yards in a 34-6 loss to Minnesota.

Smart Pick

The uncertainty at QB for the Rams is a problem, but not enough of an issue to make Tampa a favorite of more than a field goal. Bettors saw Oakland rookie QB Derek Carr go into the Meadowlands last week and keep the Raiders close, earning a cover in a 19-14 road loss.

They also saw what the Panthers could do with a strong defense and no mistakes. St. Louis has a very stout defense capable of shutting down the Bucs and keeping this game within the number.

Tampa’s 1-5 ATS mark in its last six home games against NFC opponents and in its last six games overall vs. NFC West foes also makes the Rams an attractive play.

Trends

• The total has gone under in five of St. Louis's last five games
• The total has gone under in five of Tampa Bay's last seven games

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.