Auburn's offensive line needs to avoid embarrassment

Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) throws a pass during the first half of an NCAA college football game against LSU, Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

Alabama (11-0) has embarrassed Auburn (7-4) three times since Nick Saban moved to Tuscaloosa.

The Tide won 36-0 in 2008, 42-14 in 2011 and 49-0 in 2012.

Auburn has beaten Saban four times, and the other Alabama wins were by 18 points at most.

This year, the Iron Bowl takes place in Bryant-Denny Stadium. And the Tide are out for revenge after Auburn manhandled the eventual national champions last season.

As of Monday night, sportsbooks favored No. 1 Alabama by 24.5 points.

There's a chance this Iron Bowl could become another embarrassment. To avoid that fate, or to have a chance at pulling a monumental upset, there are a lot of things that have to break right. Most of all, if it wants to win, Auburn's offensive line has to play an outstanding game.

It's been a trying year for that unit, which is arguably the most important of any Gus Malzahn-coached team. But that was predictable even before the season.

The offensive line lost four starters from last year, including Braden Smith, now a starter for the Indianapolis Colts. Then the Tigers lost out on Rice grad transfer Calvin Anderson, who chose Texas and former Auburn assistant Herb Hand. The team also lost its top two ball-carriers in Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway.

This season's offensive line just isn't as effective.

Auburn's running game is below average in FBS (No. 84 in S&P+), which is not good for a preseason Top 10 team with an offense predicated on running the ball and then throwing play-action passes.

On passing downs, Auburn's sack rate is 9.2 percent, 87th in the country. Against blitzes, Auburn's sack rate is 13.7 percent, 104th in the country.

Alabama sacks opposing quarterbacks on 13.0 percent of passes, which is best in the country.

You can break long runs against the Tide defense, but otherwise it is stacking you up at or behind the line of scrimmage. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, a potential top 5 NFL draft choice, has 15 tackles for loss and six sacks. Isaiah Buggs leads the team with 9.5 sacks.

The Citadel did score 17 on Alabama last week, but 14 of those plays came on two option pitches that went down the sideline for long runs. The Citadel offense also allowed a touchdown on a turnover.

Alabama's offense has scored at least 50 points in seven different games this year, so it's hard to beat the Tide with just one or two long plays. And it's hard to spring one of those long runs if one of Alabama's defenders tackles the ball-carrier in the backfield.

Auburn's defense is pretty good, and it may be coming off its best game of the season. Holding Alabama to 31 points is reasonable and would amount to a pretty decent effort.

To cover 24.5 points, Auburn would need to do that and also score twice, which is more than LSU and Mississippi State were able to do.

Even with a flawless defensive effort - several sacks on Tua Tagovailoa, a few turnovers, maybe even a defensive score - this isn't going to be similar to Auburn-Washington, Auburn-LSU or Auburn-Mississippi State. Auburn's offense needs to put points on the board to compete.

If Auburn's offensive line plays an average game, the Iron Bowl could turn into an embarrassment. If it plays its best game of the season, perhaps Auburn can be competitive deep into the fourth quarter.

I'm not going to bet on this game, because Vegas has figured out Alabama to the extent that there's no value in the lines. But if I had to make a play, it would be on the under, listed at 52 as of Monday night.

It wouldn't shock me if Auburn's defense held Alabama under 30 points. It would surprise me if Auburn scored in the 20s.

This is a monumental task for Auburn's offensive line, one that will go a long way to defining the 2018 Iron Bowl.

Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper. He's the founder of Sports Locksmith and also works full-time for MyBookie out of Costa Rica.

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