Why Oregon is still the favorite in an improving Pac-12, even without Mariota

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1. Turning the page

College football doesn't add members to its ruling class frequently. Miami and Florida State crashed the party in the 1980s, Florida solidified its status in the 1990s, and after letting its membership lapse for a while, LSU re-upped in the early-2000s.

Membership standards are pretty high, but whatever the requirements, Oregon is now a member of the club. The Ducks have finished 11th or better in the AP poll for seven consecutive years and have finished fourth or better in four of the last five. They made the national title game in 2010, lost their coach, turned their entire roster over (aside from a few fifth-year seniors), and made the national title game again in 2014. In the first ever College Football Playoff semifinal game, they pantsed the defending national champion in the Rose Bowl.

Oregon doesn't recruit at a top-5 level, but the Ducks have money, a draw, a system, and now, an undeniable track record.

As with so many other potential top teams this year, there's one more question: do they have a quarterback? When the Football Outsiders Almanac 2015 is released soon, you'll find that quite a few of the teams near the top will have new players behind center.

• Top teams with a returning starting QB: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 8 LSU, No. 9 Michigan State, No. 10 Stanford, No. 12 USC
• Top teams with a new starting QB: No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Oregon, No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 UCLA, No. 6 Baylor, No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 11 Auburn, No. 13 Florida State, No. 14 Notre Dame

That's nine of the top 14 with a giant question mark.

Breaking in a new QB frequently ends up just fine. Last year's national champion Ohio State lost its starter before the season started, then lost its No. 2 late in the year. Both of 2013's national title participants, Florida State and Auburn, began the year with new starters. So did 2012 BCS runner up Notre Dame and 2011 champ Alabama.

We overstate change at this position sometimes; it is something that can be overcome. Still, not every single one of those nine above teams is going to fare perfectly well in this regard.

Heading into 2015, Oregon is tasked with replacing its most accomplished player ever. Marcus Mariota was a three-year starter who threw for almost 11,000 yards and rushed for more than 2,200; he produced an absurd 181.8 passer rating last year, won the Heisman Trophy, and dragged a banged up Oregon roster to the national title game with a mix-and-match receiving corps.

Without Mariota, Oregon won't come away unscathed if it suffers the same number of injuries it did a year ago. But if the injury bug is kind, a competent new starter will find an embarrassment of skill position riches at his disposal and a line that, thanks to said bug, got more experience than expected last year. Most of the defensive front seven is back, as well.

All a QB has to be is solid for Oregon to remain a favorite in the Pac-12 and a candidate for the College Football Playoff, and ... well ... when's the last time Oregon didn't have a solid starting quarterback? Darron Thomas (2010-11) was solid. Jeremiah Masoli (2008-09), ditto. Dennis Dixon (2006-07) might have won the Heisman in 2007 if not for a late-season injury. Kellen Clemens (2003-05) is still scratching out a living in the NFL.

Et cetera. Even Jason Fife (2002) put up pretty decent numbers for the Ducks.

Whoever wins the starting job, be it last year's backup Jeff Lockie, graduate transfer Vernon Adams, etc., will probably be fine. And while the Ducks are competing in a conference that is potentially as loaded as ever, they'll be fine, too. National powers get the benefit of the doubt, after all.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 13-1 | Adj. Record: 13-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 3
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	South Dakota	N/A	62-13	W	94%	36.5	100%
6-Sep	Michigan State	11	46-27	W	95%	38.0	95%
13-Sep	Wyoming	113	48-14	W	95%	39.3	100%
20-Sep	at Washington State	77	38-31	W	64%	8.6	80%
2-Oct	Arizona	28	24-31	L	46%	-2.5	28%
11-Oct	at UCLA	12	42-30	W	92%	33.1	98%
18-Oct	Washington	58	45-20	W	96%	41.7	100%
24-Oct	vs. California	65	59-41	W	84%	23.3	97%
1-Nov	Stanford	18	45-16	W	98%	46.3	100%
8-Nov	at Utah	29	51-27	W	81%	20.7	87%
22-Nov	Colorado	83	44-10	W	97%	44.5	100%
29-Nov	at Oregon State	74	47-19	W	97%	45.5	100%
5-Dec	vs. Arizona	28	51-13	W	99%	51.8	100%
1-Jan	vs. Florida State	15	59-20	W	95%	37.5	99%
12-Jan	vs. Ohio State	1	20-42	L	47%	-1.8	3%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	46.1	2	22.4	28
Points Per Game	45.4	4	23.6	30

2. Great, good, great

Oregon suffered what was, for the Ducks, a loss of form in 2013. They still finished 11-2 but dropped from third to 17th in the F/+ rankings; the offense labored late in the year with an injured Mariota, but the primary source of the drop was a defense that plummeted from 23rd in Def. S&P+ to 55th.

Legendary defensive coordinator Nick Allioti's final Duck defense suffered from a lack of ready-made talent in the front seven, and the secondary had to play more conservatively than normal because of it.

New coordinator Don Pellum's first season saw Oregon playing defense that was not elite but was at least back to normal. The Ducks made more havoc plays, created more passing downs, and set the offense up to succeed much better. Combined with Mariota's otherworldly play, Oregon was right back to No. 3 in F/+.

There was a lull, however.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 3 games): 95% (~top 6 | avg. score: Ducks 52, Opp 18)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 7 games): 80% (~top 25 | avg. score: Ducks 43, Opp 28)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 4 games): 97% (~top 4 | avg. score: Ducks 50, Opp 16)

Early on, the defense was a bit hit-or-miss. The Ducks held Michigan State to just 5.6 yards per play but then allowed 5.9 to Wyoming and 6.2 to Washington State. And with the D trying to get its footing, the offense took on some heavy lifting. Even without injured star receiver Bralon Addison, that worked out just fine until the line began to struggle.

Injuries led to Oregon starting a different combination on the line for five of the first six games of the year, and not a single line position saw the same starter for all 15 games. Mariota was running for his life, the Ducks blew some first-half chances against Arizona, and they suffered what was at the time a devastating upset loss at home.

The offensive rebound was immediate, however. Even with the line still in flux, Oregon averaged no worse than 6.4 yards per play in every remaining 2014 game. And beginning around the Colorado game, the defense found its stride. Against CU, Oregon State, and Arizona in the Pac-12 title game rematch, they allowed just 4 yards per play and 14 points per game.

The Playoff finals against Ohio State were disappointing, but Oregon made the championship game by playing half the year like nearly the best team in the country and surviving the other half of the season when it wasn't.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.06	2	IsoPPP+	152.8	2
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.5%	7	Succ. Rt. +	124.8	8
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.5	18	Def. FP+	106.0	13
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.3	2	Redzone S&P+	119.6	17
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.2		ACTUAL	11	-6.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	3	3	8	2
RUSHING	22	5	9	6
PASSING	10	4	9	4
Standard Downs		5	11	2
Passing Downs		3	6	3

Q1 Rk	22	1st Down Rk	5
Q2 Rk	10	2nd Down Rk	3
Q3 Rk	1	3rd Down Rk	16
Q4 Rk	7

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Marcus Mariota					304	445	4454	42	4	68.3%	30	6.3%	9.0
Jeff Lockie	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447	21	28	207	1	0	75.0%	0	0.0%	7.4
Taylor Alie	6'0, 175	So.	NR	NR
Morgan Mahalak	6'3, 205	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9081
Vernon Adams Jr. (EWU)	6'2, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	251	380	3483	35	8	66.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Travis Jonsen	6'3, 194	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9483

3. One hell of a security blanket

It's hard to worry about the Oregon quarterback position too much in 2015. First of all, in cleanup time, Jeff Lockie looked just fine last year. He completed 17 of 20 passes against South Dakota and Wyoming. He was also incredible in this year's spring game: 9-for-9 for 223 yards and three scores. He wasn't the most elite recruiting prospect in the world, and we don't know much about his mobility yet, but with the supporting cast around him, he could shine.

Second, Vernon Adams Jr. is still supposedly on the way. [Update: Adams is official, though he missed the first week of August camp while finishing classes at EWU.] The Eastern Washington transfer nearly won the 2014 Walter Payton Award, the FCS' Heisman, and while he is expecting to finish his course work late enough to miss a couple days of fall camp, he's still on pace to be there. As a three-year starter in EWU's high-flying offense, Adams threw for more than 10,000 yards and 100 touchdowns, and in two games against Pac-12 North competition (Oregon State in 2013, Washington in 2014), he shined.

If they don't work out, Oregon's got a four-star redshirt freshman (Morgan Mahalak) and true freshman (Travis Jonsen) to try. Odds are good that someone will be solid.

Mariota was the ultimate security blanket last year. Without a Heisman-caliber quarterback, the ship wouldn't have remained on course with the number of injuries the Ducks suffered.

Bralon Addison, Oregon's leading receiver in 2013, missed the entire year. Byron Marshall moved from No. 1 running back to No. 1 receiver, and presumptive new starting rusher Thomas Tyner missed four games. [Update: Tyner will miss the 2015 season after shoulder surgery.] Tight end Pharaoh Brown emerged as a breakout star, then missed the last five games. Plus, after exploding in the postseason (14 catches, 291 yards), Darren Carrington got suspended for the Ohio State game.

Without Mariota, Oregon probably doesn't overcome that. Oregon's 2015 starter will be good; he probably won't be a magician.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Royce Freeman	RB	5'11, 230	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9817	252	1365	18	5.4	4.4	42.1%	1	1
Thomas Tyner	RB	5'11, 215	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9899	113	573	5	5.1	3.4	42.5%	1	0
Marcus Mariota	QB					105	959	15	9.1	6.6	65.7%	6	3
Byron Marshall	RB	5'10, 200	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9510	52	392	1	7.5	8.0	44.2%	2	1
Kenny Bassett	RB					31	159	2	5.1	3.9	38.7%	0	0
Kani Benoit	RB	6'0, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8274	23	98	1	4.3	7.1	21.7%	0	0
Charles Nelson	WR/CB	5'8, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8706	13	103	0	7.9	7.5	53.8%	1	0
Lane Roseberry	RB	6'1, 233	Jr.	NR	NR	6	23	0	3.8	1.2	50.0%	0	0
Jeff Lockie	QB	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447	6	4	0	0.7	7.9	16.7%	3	1
Tony Brooks-James	RB	5'9, 185	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8960
Taj Griffin	RB	5'10, 175	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9742
Malik Lovette	WR	5'11, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9389

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Byron Marshall	RB/WR	5'10, 200	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9510	106	75	1011	70.8%	22.6%	70.8%	9.5	120	9.9	151.3
Bralon Addison (2013)	WR	5'10, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9580	103	61	890	59.2%	26.3%	62.1%	8.6	119	8.9	150.1
Devon Allen	WR	6'0, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9078	65	42	712	64.6%	13.8%	75.4%	11.0	205	10.2	106.5
Dwayne Stanford	WR	6'5, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8935	64	43	639	67.2%	13.6%	54.7%	10.0	123	9.9	95.6
Darren Carrington	WR	6'2, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9181	50	37	704	74.0%	10.6%	70.0%	14.1	268	13.7	105.3
Keanon Lowe	WR					45	28	414	62.2%	9.6%	60.0%	9.2	73	9.3	61.9
Charles Nelson	WR/CB	5'8, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8706	34	23	327	67.6%	7.2%	82.4%	9.6	52	11.9	48.9
Pharaoh Brown	TE	6'6, 250	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9233	33	25	420	75.8%	7.0%	78.8%	12.7	126	12.6	62.9
Evan Baylis	TE	6'6, 250	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9153	23	15	143	65.2%	4.9%	73.9%	6.2	-38	5.5	21.4
Royce Freeman	RB	5'11, 230	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9817	19	16	158	84.2%	4.0%	63.2%	8.3	-27	8.2	23.7
Thomas Tyner	RB	5'11, 215	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9899	14	11	68	78.6%	3.0%	42.9%	4.9	-60	3.7	10.2
Johnny Mundt	TE	6'4, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8504	4	2	29	50.0%	0.9%	100.0%	7.3	4	N/A	4.3
Zac Schuller	WR	5'10, 180	Sr.	NR	NR	2	2	9	100.0%	0.4%	0.0%	4.5	-14	N/A	1.3
Koa Ka'ai	TE	6'4, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8792
Jalen Brown	WR	6'1, 200	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9471
Alex Ofodile	WR	6'3, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9443
Kirk Merritt	WR	5'11, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9241
Jacob Breeland	TE	6'5, 221	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600

4. If everyone's healthy ... wow

Bralon Addison is back. Pharaoh Brown might be. Byron Marshall could be an all-conference runner or receiver. Charles Nelson could star at either receiver or cornerback (or both). Royce Freeman was more efficient than a freshman running back is supposed to be. Oh yeah, blue-chipper Taj Griffin and a load of former four-star recruits are waiting their turn.

Oregon is loaded. Loaded. This is ridiculous.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	136.8	3.79	4.25	45.8%	68.8%	13.6%	119.0	4.1%	9.4%
Rank	1	1	2	12	54	6	41	51	97

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Hroniss Grasu	C					52	All-American, 2014 1st All-Pac-12
Jake Fisher	LT					35	All-American, 2014 1st All-Pac-12
Hamani Stevens	LG					28
Tyler Johnstone	LT	6'6, 295	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9070	26
Cameron Hunt	RG	6'4, 290	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9012	21
Matt Hegarty (Notre Dame)	C	6'4, 295	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9708	13
Tyrell Crosby	RT	6'5, 310	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8784	9
Matt Pierson	LG	6'6, 285	Sr.	NR	NR	7
Andre Yruretagoyena	LG					2
Jake Pisarcik	C	6'2, 300	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8081	2
Doug Brenner	C	6'2, 305	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8270	1
Stetzon Bair	LT	6'9, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8396	0
Haniteli Lousi	RG	6'5, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8917	0
Evan Voeller	RT	6'5, 290	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9017	0
Elijah George	LT	6'5, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8228	0
Braden Eggert	RT	6'6, 315	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8694
Davis Miyashiro-Saipaia	LG	6'2, 300	RSFr.	NR	0.7667
Zach Okun	C	6'4, 310	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9058
Brady Aiello	LT	6'7, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8774
Shane Lemieux	RG	6'6, 302	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706
Calvin Throckmorton	LT	6'6, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8675
Jake Hanson	RT	6'5, 288	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8591

5. A lot gone, a lot back

In the first game of the year, Oregon started a line that featured Jake Fisher, Hamani Stevens, Hroniss Grasu, Jake Pisarcik, and Andre Yruretagoyena. Four of those five players are gone, so Oregon is rebuilding up front, right?

Not exactly. Fisher missed two games, Grasu missed three, and Pisarcik and Yruretagoyena started just one more game each. Only Stevens started all 15 games, and even he had to play a couple of different positions in the process.

The talent out the door is immense: Grasu was a four-year starter and a 2014 All-American. Fellow All-American Fisher was a three-year starter, and Stevens started for two. But last year's shuffling and the signing of a key graduate transfer -- Notre Dame center Matt Hegarty -- mean that the Ducks still return seven players with starting experience. Tyler Johnstone and Cameron Hunt have combined for 47 starts, and three sophomores combined for 12 starts as freshmen.

Despite what they lost, the Ducks will likely be starting three seniors and a junior. The new QB isn't going to be lining up behind a sieve.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.74	12	IsoPPP+	116.7	27
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.7%	91	Succ. Rt. +	104.9	46
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.7	29	Off. FP+	106.0	15
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	21	Redzone S&P+	108.1	39
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	32.5		ACTUAL	34.0	+1.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	89	38	49	27
RUSHING	62	52	61	36
PASSING	111	36	42	32
Standard Downs		27	37	21
Passing Downs		62	73	52

Q1 Rk	37	1st Down Rk	36
Q2 Rk	29	2nd Down Rk	35
Q3 Rk	49	3rd Down Rk	21
Q4 Rk	46

6. Letting teams off the hook

Oregon's defense was good at the right things in 2014. The Ducks forced turnover opportunities, recording 37 sacks, forcing 22 fumbles, and defensing 84 passes. When you've got an offense like Oregon's, your defense can afford to take some risks, go for the ball, and aim to open up floodgates.

The touchdown-turnover-touchdown combo has become an Oregon specialty through the years, and the Ducks were good at it. Plus, as Florida State learned, they were stout in short-yardage situations as well.

The Ducks created turnovers, forced passing downs, kept you out of the end zone in scoring opportunities, and did a solid job of preventing big plays despite the risk-taking. As they proved, you can win with a defense like this when you've got an offense like that.

Still, Oregon let a lot off offenses off the hook. Forcing passing downs only matters if you convert them into punts. Despite a solid sack rate, Oregon ranked just 73rd in Passing Downs Success Rate+. On third-and-7 or more and fourth down, opponents completed 57 percent of their passes, with 68 percent of their completions resulting in a first down.

While the pass rush was solid, it opened Oregon up for draw play success: the Ducks ranked 124th in passing downs line yards per carry. Somehow, the Ducks struggled in ways that suggested they were both too aggressive and too passive in these situations.

It's hard to get a read on what to expect from this defense in 2015. Don Pellum is no longer a first-year defensive coordinator, and he gets most of last year's front seven back. But the secondary is replacing three starters, and the two-deep will be stocked by almost all freshmen and sophomores. The Ducks are again a contradiction -- experienced and young.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.1	2.96	4.03	39.2%	53.7%	17.5%	95.8	3.2%	9.1%
Rank	62	69	124	68	5	93	75	98	36

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
DeForest Buckner	DE	6'7, 290	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9143	15	58.5	6.4%	13.0	4.0	0	4	1	0
Arik Armstead	DE					13	35.5	3.9%	5.5	2.5	0	0	1	0
Sam Kamp	NG					15	15.5	1.7%	1.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Tui Talia	DE	6'5, 285	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8869	15	13.5	1.5%	1.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Alex Balducci	NG	6'4, 310	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9184	15	13.0	1.4%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Daniel	DE	6'6, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7508	15	9.5	1.0%	1.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Austin Maloata	NG	6'1, 300	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585	11	6.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Henry Mondeaux	DE	6'5, 290	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631	15	5.5	0.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Jelks	DE	6'6, 268	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8694
Canton Kaumatule	DE	6'7, 295	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9907
Gary Baker	DE	6'4, 298	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585
Drayton Carlberg	DE	6'5, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8584
Rex Manu	NG	6'3, 315	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8523
Gus Cumberlander	DE	6'6, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8403

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Joe Walker	ILB	6'2, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8166	15	65.0	7.1%	8.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Derrick Malone Jr.	ILB					15	62.0	6.8%	2.5	0.5	0	2	1	0
Rodney Hardrick	ILB	6'1, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503	15	58.0	6.3%	6.0	1.0	0	1	1	1
Tony Washington	OLB					15	48.5	5.3%	11.5	6.0	0	2	3	2
Tyson Coleman	OLB	6'1, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8824	15	33.0	3.6%	7.0	3.0	1	1	1	0
Torrodney Prevot	OLB	6'3, 220	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9238	15	24.0	2.6%	6.0	5.0	0	2	3	0
Christian French	OLB	6'5, 250	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9062	15	20.0	2.2%	7.5	6.5	0	0	1	0
Danny Mattingly	ILB	6'5, 245	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8898	11	14.5	1.6%	3.0	1.0	1	1	1	0
Johnny Ragin III	ILB	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8591	14	11.0	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jimmie Swain	ILB	6'2, 235	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8929	9	8.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Hollins	OLB	6'6, 230	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8504	14	7.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	1
Isaac Ava	LB					8	3.5	0.4%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Eddie Heard	ILB	6'3, 245	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8570
Jonah Moi	LB	6'2, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8517
Paris Bostick	OLB	6'1, 218	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457
Fotu Leiato	OLB	6'1, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8650

7. Depth? Check. Play-making? Hmm...

Ten of the 14 members of last year's front-seven two-deep are back this fall. That includes a genuine stud in senior end DeForest Buckner and two nice, run-stuffing inside linebackers in Joe Walker and Rodney Hardrick. Tony Washington and Arik Armstead are gone, but that hurts depth more than overall talent. The trio of Tyson Coleman, Torrodney Prevot, and Christian French should easily replicate Washington's numbers, at least.

Oregon's front seven should be able to replicate last year's numbers. And at first glance, those numbers appear strong -- Buckner, Walker, and Hardrick combined for 21 non-sack tackles for loss. Coleman, Prevot, and French combined for 14.5 sacks. But Oregon played in 15 games last year, so those are all a bit inflated.

Oregon ranked just 93rd in stuff rate (run stops behind the line) and 98th in standard downs sack rate. They could send guys off of the edge on third-and-7, but there still wasn't enough play-making here. (Plus, as mentioned, the passing downs blitz opened up run opportunities.)

Experience should make this unit better, but it wouldn't hurt if a couple of younger guys were able to make a quick impact. Blue-chip end Canton Kaumatule is a fascinating talent, and a host of sophomore linebackers have hinted at speed and high upside.

This unit will need to get more successfully aggressive, not only because its numbers weren't great last year, but also because the secondary's going to need more help.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Erick Dargan	FS					15	78.0	8.5%	3.5	0	7	6	2	1
Reggie Daniels	ROV	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9085	15	72.5	7.9%	1.5	0	1	9	1	1
Troy Hill	CB					14	65.0	7.1%	4	0	1	18	2	0
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu	CB					13	53.0	5.8%	1	0	2	9	1	0
Tyree Robinson	FS	6'4, 205	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9314	15	31.0	3.4%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Chris Seisay	CB	6'1, 190	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8739	13	28.5	3.1%	1	0	0	4	1	0
Juwaan Williams	ROV	6'0, 190	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	13	12.5	1.4%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Charles Nelson	CB	5'8, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8706	15	12.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dior Mathis	CB					15	11.5	1.3%	1	1	0	4	0	1
Issac Dixon	FS					2	3.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Arrion Springs	CB	5'11, 205	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9595	9	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mattrell McGraw	CB	5'10, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8834
Glen Ihenacho	FS	5'11, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519
Ugo Amadi	CB	5'10, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8784
Jihree Stewart	CB	6'0, 182	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585

8. A high bar and a lot of sophomores

As impressive as Oregon's balancing act was on offense, the secondary had to use some smoke and mirrors as well.

Starting corner Troy Hill dealt with a knee injury early in the season, and star Ifo Ekpre-Olomu missed the final two games with his own injury. The Ducks adapted, and younger players like Chris Seisay and safeties Tyree Robinson and Juwaan Williams all got their feet wet with minimal disaster.

Because of these sophomores' experience and the return of an awesome safety in Reggie Daniels, all is not lost for the Oregon secondary. But all is young. Daniels is the default leader as a junior. While Robinson and Williams could assure solid safety play, there's a possibility that a freshman (Ugo Amadi) or a converted receiver (Charles Nelson) could end up starting at cornerback.

The Ducks will not lack for athleticism in the back, but missing both the experience and play-making abilities of players like Hill, Ekpre-Olomu, and safety Erick Dargan (combined: 8.5 tackles for loss, 10 INTs, 33 break-ups) hurts. This unit will regress, and it's up to the front seven to keep the pressure off of the DBs.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ian Wheeler	6'0, 205	So.	47	39.1	3	13	11	51.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Matt Wogan	6'2, 210	Jr.	87	62.0	22	0	25.3%
Aidan Schneider	6'4, 235	So.	36	60.4	7	0	19.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Aidan Schneider	6'4, 235	So.	40-42	9-10	90.0%	2-2	100.0%
Matt Wogan	6'2, 210	Jr.	39-41	7-9	77.8%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Charles Nelson	KR	5'8, 170	So.	22	19.0	0
Devon Allen	KR	6'0, 185	So.	8	26.1	0
Charles Nelson	PR	5'8, 170	So.	11	15.5	2
Johnathan Loyd	PR			10	13.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	17
Field Goal Efficiency	46
Punt Return Efficiency	12
Kick Return Efficiency	88
Punt Efficiency	49
Kickoff Efficiency	24
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	71

9. Speed, speed, speed

Charles Nelson is incredible. He heads into 2015 as one of The Ducks' best receivers, one of their best cornerbacks, their best return man, and perhaps their best coverage man. How he is used remains to be seen, but he'll be good at whatever he's asked to do.

Nelson was a game-changer as a punt returner last year, even if his kick returns were pretty inconsistent. He's the marquee guy for special teams, but everybody else associated with Oregon's top-20 unit is back as well. Ian Wheeler's punts weren't deep, but they were high and rarely returnable. Aidan Schneider became a go-to place-kicker as a freshman.

Oregon survived with tons of youngsters in special teams, and it's hard to imagine the Ducks regressing too much from last year's No. 17 ranking here.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	Eastern Washington	NR
12-Sep	at Michigan State	9
19-Sep	Georgia State	111
26-Sep	Utah	39
3-Oct	at Colorado	75
10-Oct	Washington State	66
17-Oct	at Washington	55
29-Oct	at Arizona State	24
7-Nov	California	51
14-Nov	at Stanford	11
21-Nov	USC	13
27-Nov	Oregon State	70

Five-Year F/+ Rk	49.3% (2)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	23 / 17
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	23 / 15.4
2014 TO Luck/Game	+2.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (7, 5)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	12.9 (0.1)

10. Still the champ

The Pac-12 is as deep as it has ever been this year. Stanford isn't too many ifs from playing like a top-10 team again, and both UCLA and USC have top-5 potential. The Arizona schools could both play at a top-20 or top-25 level, Utah is top-40 at worst, and Cal, Washington State and Colorado all stand to improve.

But while we can talk about the Pac-12 South's depth and potential heavyweights, and we can weigh how strong Stanford might be with some defensive turnover, the Pac-12 champion resides in Eugene. And the Ducks return enough to make a pretty strong repeat run.

The secondary is a concern. We can assume steady quarterback play, it's just an assumption until proven otherwise. The offensive line is sturdy but less experienced. The front seven needs to raise its havoc game. But these are issues that will determine if Oregon is a Playoff-caliber team; the Ducks are going to be good no matter what.

If there are pieces Oregon needs to break in before it can become a Playoff-caliber squad, the schedule should help. The early trip to Michigan State is an obvious trial and potential loss. After that, the Ducks get tune-ups against Georgia State and four of the Pac-12's lesser teams. The late-season stretch is rough -- trips to Arizona State and Stanford and a visit from USC -- but the meat of the schedule comes after Oregon has had a chance to find itself.

Oregon is not a far-and-away favorite in the Pac-12, but the Ducks still begin 2015 as the favorites. Mark Helfrich's bunch will have some new faces but will still look like Oregon has looked for most of the last decade: deep, confident, and too fast for you.