CLEVELAND, Ohio - Undefeated Notre Dame and Clemson appear to have the clearest roads to winning spots in the 2018-19 college football playoffs. Neither has a ranked opponent left on their schedule.
But, if history holds true, any major conference team with no more than one loss should still be considered in the race. The key for those who have lost once already - including Ohio State, Michigan, LSU, Texas and others - is to not lose again.
Here’s our weekly look sizing up the schedules for the playoff contenders. At least 15 teams could still be considered in the hunt, down from 18 a week ago. The chart at the bottom of this story shows both ranked opponents remaining and overall schedule strength ahead for each of the 15 schools
Notre Dame, as independent, will not have a league title game. And, according to current rankings, Clemson would not face a ranked team in an ACC title game.
So who has the toughest sledding ahead? Three nominees:
- LSU still has games against No. 1 Alabama, No. 16 Texas A&M and, if the Tigers get through that, a likely ranked opponent in the SEC title game.
- Michigan’s schedule includes No. 11 Ohio State, No. 17 Penn State and a potentially another ranked opponent if UM advances to the Big Ten title game.
- West Virginia still must play No. 6 Texas, No. 8 Oklahoma and a ranked opponent in a possible Big 12 title game.
The only ranked team left on Ohio State’s schedule is No. 5 Michigan, though beating Michigan and advancing to the league title game could add another ranked opponent. From the Big Ten West, Iowa is now No. 18 and Wisconsin No. 20.
In the first four years of the playoffs, every outright champion of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 or SEC with no more than one loss has made the playoffs.
That history could be tested this year if independent Notre Dame grabs one of the spots, leaving just three for conference teams.
Here are the contenders and what stands in the way.
x-The strength of schedule rankings were calculated by the NCAA, based on the combined record of remaining FBS regular season opponents.
| AP
rank |
School | x-SOS
remaining games |
Ranked
left |
Ranked opponents left |
| 1 | Alabama (8-0) | No. 31 (.621) | 2 | No. 4 LSU, Nov. 3
Potential SEC title game |
| 2 | Clemson (7-0) | No. 52 (.559) | None | |
| 3 | Notre Dame (7-0) | No. 67 (.543) | None | |
| 4 | LSU (7-1) | No. 85 (.516) | 3 | No. 1 Alabama, Nov. 3
No. 16 Texas A&M, Nov. 24 Potential SEC title game |
| 5 | Michigan (7-1) | No. 53 (.548) | 3 | No. 17 Penn State, Nov. 3
No. 11 Ohio State, Nov. 24 Potential Big Ten title game |
| 6 | Texas (6-1) | No. 48 (.576) | 2 | No. 13 West Virginia, Nov. 3
Potential Big 12 title game |
| 7 | Georgia (6-1) | No. 41 (.595) | 3 | No. 9 Florida, Saturday
No. 12 Kentucky, Nov. 3 Potential SEC title game |
| 8 | Oklahoma (6-1) | No. 52 (.559) | 2 | No. 13 West Virginia, Nov. 23
Potential Big 12 title game |
| 9 | Florida (6-1) | No. 42 (.588) | 2 | No. 7 Georgia, Saturday
Potential SEC title game |
| 11 | Ohio State (7-1) | No. 65 (.552) | 2 | No. 5 Michigan, Nov. 24
Potential Big Ten title game |
| 12 | Kentucky (6-1) | No. 67 (.543) | 2 | No. 7 Georgia, Nov. 3
Potential SEC title game |
| 13 | West Virginia (5-1) | No. 20 (.657) | 3 | No. 6 Texas, Nov. 23
No. 8 Oklahoma, Nov. 23 Potential Big 12 title game |
| 14 | Wash. State (6-1) | No. 28 (.622) | 2 | No. 15 Washington, Nov. 23
Potential Big Ten title game |
| 18 | Iowa (6-1) | No. 96 (.486) | 2 | No. 17 Penn State, Saturday
Potential Big Ten title game |
| 22 | N.C. State (5-1) | No. 115 (.415) | None |
What about Central Florida and South Florida?
Both No. 10 Central Florida and No. 21 South Florida from the American Athletic Conference are undefeated. But no school outside the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 or SEC has yet to break into the playoffs.
That could change this year if enough schools ahead of UCF and South Florida lose down the stretch, and either UCF or South Florida remains undefeated. The first clues from the selection committee will arrive next Tuesday, Oct. 30, when the committee releases its first rankings of the season.
Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner.
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