WASHINGTON — U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur has been put on notice: Anything he says can or will be used against him.
MacArthur (R-3rd Dist.) is learning just how rocky the road to re-election is when you're traveling it for the first time.
"This is the toughest election," Democratic consultant Glenn Totten said. "Once you're there and you're a solid incumbent, life just got considerably safer.''
Freshmen are traditionally the most vulnerable of congressional incumbents, and what makes MacArthur an even more enticing target is that his district has a distinct blue hue; registered Democratic voters outnumber registered Republicans, and President Obama carried it in 2012.
So MacArthur, who learned that he needed to work with House Democrats to accomplish his legislative goals, is also learning that their fundraising arm would like nothing more than to see him out of office.
"He understands he'll be in the crosshairs," said MacArthur's political adviser, Chris Russell. "That's part of the game."
Just five months into his first term, MacArthur found himself the subject of an online ad campaign and a mailing, courtesy of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which spent $1.6 million last year in an attempt to deny him the seat the first time, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That was almost as much as the $1.8 million spent by his Democratic opponent, Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard.
The literature, featuring a photograph of a soldier holding a baby, was sent to military families, criticizing MacArthur's vote against a consumer-friendly amendment to the annual defense policy bill and saying, "Those who put their life on the line shouldn't come home to a lifetime of debt." The digital ad said MacArthur "voted to block protections for troops against predatory lenders."
"This is an attack waiting for a specific charge," MacArthur said. "They'll grab anything they can grab."
MacArthur is one of the 21 most vulnerable House Republicans, according to Washington-based political analyst Charlie Cook, who rates congressional races. Two other D.C.-based analysts who track House races, Stuart Rothenberg and Nathan Gonzales, said MacArthur's seat is the only one out of the 12 in New Jersey that could possibly change hands in 2016.
"You look at members in swing districts," said Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), a former DCCC chair. "New Jersey 3 is the prototypical swing district. It has moderate voters. Then you look at new members who haven't established themselves in swing districts. New Jersey 3 fills both criteria."
At issue was MacArthur's support of a delay for as long as a year of new Defense Department rules governing payday and other loans with high interest rates. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau reported in December that lenders were evading a 2006 law capping such loans at 36 percent, charging as much as 584 percent.
MacArthur said he backed the delay to give the Pentagon more time to ensure that the new rules would not cut off credit, and would protect individuals' privacy. At the same time, he said he favored courses in financial literacy so that members of the Armed Forces could avoid predatory lenders.
When Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), a military veteran who lost both legs in the Iraq War, proposed letting the lending rules take effect without delay, MacArthur voted no. Duckworth's amendment passed and the defense policy bill that passed May 15 does not delay the rules.
The vote was conducted away from the cameras, not on the House floor where it would have been broadcast nationally on C-SPAN but during a meeting of the House Armed Services Committee.
That's the same meeting where MacArthur and fellow New Jersey freshman Rep. Donald Norcross (D-1st Dist.) added a provision to the defense bill that prevented the Pentagon from moving any KC-10 refueling aircraft. This would ensure their continued presence at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, which lawmakers are concerned could be shut down or scaled back under a new round of base closings.
MacArthur sought the Armed Services Committee seat and made as his top priority the protection of the joint base, his district's largest employer.
"You attack a strong person in their area of strength," MacArthur said. "That's what they're trying to do."
Totten, the Democratic consultant, said the goal is to start raising questions early in voters' minds about their new and still-unfamiliar representative.
"If you don't allow him to get comfortable, he's more likely to be more vulnerable next November," Totten said.
MacArthur said he wasn't surprised to be caught in the crosshairs.
"They want the seat, period," he said. "Nobody had to warn me. This is a swing district. The DCCC thinks they can get it back so they're going to come after me, after me, after me."
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Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JDSalant. Find NJ.com Politics on Facebook.