Nightmare scenario may face Evansville Democrats next year in Mayor's race

EVANSVILLE, Ind. — It's a nightmare scenario — and it could happen to Evansville Democrats next year. It did happen to Republicans in 2007.

None of the GOP's skilled politicians — not Lloyd Winnecke, not Cheryl Musgrave nor any other party figure of note — wanted a piece of then-Democratic Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel. So a political unknown with child support issues, a small claims court case over unpaid rent and a propensity for hitting up other candidates for money swooped in to file for mayor under the party's banner.

GOP leaders were helpless to stop it. Nor could they do anything to prevent what happened next.

The voter turnout Republicans needed to elect City Council candidates was suppressed by the perception that Weinzapfel would crush GOP nominee David Nixon. Weinzapfel won 85 percent of the vote — and Republicans lost every contested race on the city ballot.

That's not going to happen to local Democrats next year, party chairman Scott Danks said. He won't let it.

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Danks is prepared to enlist a suitable candidate — any suitable candidate — if necessary to prevent someone with legal issues from becoming the Democratic nominee against Republican Mayor Lloyd Winnecke.

"I would absolutely have that contingency in place. I absolutely would," Danks said.

"I don’t see that as being a likely scenario, but of course we don’t want that because when you have a very poorly qualified candidate on the ticket, it brings down the entire ticket."

It's a possibility for Evansville Democrats because two of the three officeholders most often mentioned as prospective mayoral candidates — State Rep. Ryan Hatfield and Vanderburgh County Commissioner Ben Shoulders — aren't interested. A third, City Councilman Jonathan Weaver, said he is "leaning no" to running.

Hatfield said he has been asked to run for mayor by prominent local and statewide Democrats — but he attempted to leave no room for others to speculate about his intentions.

‘’I appreciate the interest that some have expressed in me running for mayor. However, I will not be a candidate for mayor in 2019. I love what I’m doing, and I intend to stay in the Legislature," he said. "You can consider this an announcement that I am running for re-election (to the Indiana House of Representatives) in 2020.

“I hope that’s a clear enough answer,” Hatfield said with a chuckle.

Lack of enthusiasm

Weaver frequently jousted with Winnecke when the mayor was a county commissioner and he was the county assessor. But Weaver was only a little less certain than Hatfield that he won't run against Winnecke next year.

"I’ve not made a decision at this point in time, but I’m leaning no," Weaver said.

Weaver wasn't enthusiastic enough about running for mayor to refrain from volunteering the name of another candidate — former 8th District Congressman Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth said he isn't interested.

Shoulders didn't sound like a man who thinks Winnecke needs to be ousted.

"I think that Mayor Winnecke is doing a fine job and continues to do a fine job," the Democratic county commissioner said of the Republican mayor. "I'm focused on running for county commissioner in 2020."

Shoulders, a vice president and corporate relationship manager at Old National Bank, has a few things in common with Winnecke. He is the nephew of local attorney Pat Shoulders. The elder Shoulders is a partner in Ziemer, Stayman, Weitzel & Shoulders, the law firm Winnecke's administration chose to do the city's legal work. Pat Shoulders also once did legal work for the Courier & Press.

Pat Shoulders, an outspoken Democrat, actively supported Winnecke's 2011 and 2015 mayoral campaigns. He has called the Republican mayor a longtime friend.

The political action committee representing Old National Bank — Ben Shoulders' employer — gave Winnecke's campaign fund $10,000 in 2017. When Ben Shoulders ran for county commissioner as a Democrat in 2016, Winnecke repeatedly declined to say he was supporting Shoulders' opponent, Republican Sean Selby.

Selby, who said he can't recall Winnecke ever endorsing him, lost the race to Shoulders by a 51-49 percent margin.

'A vicious circle'

If Ben Shoulders lacks a ravenous desire to defeat Winnecke, local party chairman Danks lacks certainty that Democrats will pull it off.

"By no means am I indicating that we won’t have a very strong mayoral candidate, but at the same time I recognize that (Winnecke) is very well-liked, and he’d be tough to beat," Danks said.

It's just one of the assets Winnecke has working in his favor next year.

The mayor raised nearly $500,000 for his campaign fund in 2017 – much of it in big chunks from out-of-town companies that work with the city. Winnecke continued his fundraising this year, but political types can only speculate on the current size of his warchest. He is not required to submit an annual campaign finance report until January.

"When you raise a lot of money, it has the effect of scaring off challengers," said Robert Dion, a University of Evansville political scientist. "That’s one of the effects of building a warchest. That’s one of the reasons why candidates raise money constantly."

Any candidate serious about taking on Winnecke next year would have to start making moves soon, Dion said. It would likely mean raising a lot of money fast.

"We’re already, what, 50 weeks away from the election? So if you’re going to raise $500,000, you’ve got to start raising $10,000 a week," the UE political scientist said.

It takes money to raise money, Dion said. Money, and the appearance of momentum.

"You have to have money to hire staff as fundraising assistants. People typically don’t want to give big contributions to somebody who has no money," Dion said. "To get off the ground is a challenge because to get those big donors early on, you have to have a really compelling case. And it’s hard to have a compelling case when you don’t have any money.

"It’s a vicious circle."

A mayoral candidate could try raising an army of volunteers and wearing out some shoe leather. Television advertising isn't essential in a local race.

"There are things you could do, but you’re not going to do it on chewing gum and string. You gotta have some money," Dion said.

As if the perception that Winnecke is popular and the prospect of a huge warchest isn't enough to intimidate prospective Democratic candidates, Evansville itself isn't the Democratic bastion it used to be. That can be traced to Winnecke's own initial election victory in 2011, when he broke through to become just the third Republican mayor to lead Evansville since H.O. "Hank" Roberts' defeat in 1955.

An analysis of precinct voting totals by the Courier & Press showed that then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump received slightly more than 55 percent of the vote in Vanderburgh County in 2016.

But Trump's showing in Evansville – 49 percent – was high for a Republican. Trump outpolled Democrat Hillary Clinton in five of six wards. Clinton's margin in the heavily Democratic 4th ward – 2,936 votes to 984 for Trump – accounted for her advantage within city limits.

The 4th Ward also accounted for Democrats' victory margin inside Evansville in a key bellwether race in November's midterm election, according to a new Courier & Press analysis.

Dion said partisan sentiment can best be measured in statewide races involving little-known candidates, such as the races for state auditor or state treasurer. Lacking familiarity with the candidates or even any information about them aside from party affiliation, voters revert to their partisan instincts.

“Those are the baseline numbers," Dion said.

In the race for Indiana state auditor between Republican Tera Klutz and Democrat Joselyn Whitticker, Klutz won 15,187 votes inside city limits to Whitticker's 16,732. Whitticker's victory in Evansville came largely on the strength of a 2,200-vote margin in the 4th Ward.

Democratic straight ticket voters in Evansville outnumbered Republicans by 9,814 to 8,568 – again, on the strength of a 1,600-vote advantage in the 4th Ward.

But those numbers are only so useful when looking at next year, Dion said. It's hard to compare a national midterm election colored by fevered attention to Trump and a hot U.S. Senate race in Indiana to a stand-alone municipal election.

"The issue mix is different," the UE political scientist said.

But Dion said one thing is certain: Democrats will suffer if their heavyweight candidates' lack of interest in challenging Winnecke allows the mayoral nomination to go to someone with toxic political problems.

"An oddball could walk in. You’ve got to get somebody in there who will make a go of it," Dion said. "And then the question is, how hard do you push? Do you go for the brass ring and try to topple Winnecke, or do you just put a placeholder there to avoid embarrassment and provide a rallying cry?

"You gotta have somebody in there."

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