As UCF climbs, where's the ceiling?

UCF’s 2018 football schedule isn’t loaded with danger.

At least not on paper. They play on grass and rugs, however, and while there are no Power 5 bluebloods on the itinerary, there is some capable opposition in the pipeline — particularly the Cincinnati-USF combo to end the regular season, assuming the Bearcats and Bulls hold it together.

But while we still can, let’s ponder the possibility that the Knights run the table yet again and then win their conference championship game.

UCF is 13th in the current AP poll, up eight spots from a preseason ranking many considered insulting. Last year, it was the Oct. 1 poll before UCF broke in at No. 25.

READ MORE: Undefeated Stetson running away from the competition

The Knights continued winning last year and the usual Saturday attrition saw them shimmy up the poll through the next nine weeks: From 25 to 22, 20, 18, 15, 14, 14, 13, 12 and 10 after the conference championships.

They were down to 12th in the all-important College Football Playoff rankings and obviously felt put-out. After beating Auburn in the Peach Bowl, the Knights were sixth in the final AP poll, which made their 2018 preseason No. 21 rather questionable.

A year ago at this time, they weren’t yet ranked, but were 10th after the season and before the bowls. So it’s very conceivable that another undefeated run could see them climb deep into the top 10 and maybe into the top 4.

Would a two-year unbeaten run — which included that win over Auburn in the Peach Bowl — convince the CFP committee to put a non-Power 5 school in the four-team playoff? It’s generally believed that the system is rigged to exclude those outside the Power 5, and another exclusion would basically prove it.

And why do we make this case now, just three games into the season? Because if you’ve been paying attention, you know that no team is fully shielded from an upset loss, and once UCF finally loses, this conversation is over. So we enjoy it while we can.

Rank and File

Here's your weekly ranking of Florida’s seven D-I FBS schools, based on their overall season so far, but also on their performance vs. expectations, current trends and, when needed, a coin flip.

1. UCF (3-0): Former Spruce Creek Hawk Michael Colubiale had his long-awaited breakout game last week against FAU (6 catches, 84 yards). That matches half of his career reception total before this year. Colubiale is the rare sixth-year senior you occasionally see in college ball.

2. Miami (3-1): ’Canes get the airwaves to themselves Thursday against North Carolina. Former NSB Barracuda Cole Holcomb continues to shine for UNC, by the way, leading with 25 tackles through three games. UM coach Mark Richt has pulled the trigger at QB and replaces Malik Rosier with freshman N’Kosi Perry from Ocala. Will he be N’Sync? Sorry.

3. USF (4-0): Bulls are following the UCF script from 2017. They’re unbeaten and knocking on the Top 25 door. They’re sitting pretty, too, with a bye week followed by three sub-par opponents, so a ranking seems imminent.

4. Florida (3-1): Have the Gators turned a corner or is Tennessee even worse than we could’ve imagined? We’ll know a little more after Saturday’s game at Mississippi State. Even in better days, the Gators have had a bad time in Starkville. Yeah, go figure.

5. FAU (2-2): The Oklahoma and UCF games are out of the way and the Owls slide fully into Conference USA play this week. FAU faces Middle Tennessee State this week in Murfreesboro, birthplace of Grantland Rice, for what it’s worth.

6. FIU (2-2): The Panthers lost last week to the Miami Hurricanes, 31-17, and presumably not because they were looking ahead to this week’s throw-down with Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

7. FSU (2-2): And those two wins came against schools where you can’t even get an Uber. The ’Noles play Louisville Saturday ahead of their Oct. 6 game at Miami. Does it go without saying that if FSU wants to salvage 2018, beating Louisville is practically a must? I thought so.

The Other Guys

A quick drive-by to check on the state of our four D-I FCS teams.

Bethune-Cookman (1-3 overall, 0-1 in MEAC): Not a good start for the Wildcats, but a couple of freebies are on deck — Savannah State this week and Mississippi Valley State after that. MEAC hopes are still in play, but lose again and all that’s really left is the FAMU game.

Florida A&M (2-2, 1-0 in MEAC): Tallahassee’s other first-year Willie — new FAMU coach Willie Simmons — is also 2-2 through four games. And like Willie Taggart, Simmons and the Rattlers won two games they almost couldn’t have lost if they tried — over Savannah State and Fort Valley State. FAMU ranks third nationally in FCS home attendance, averaging 18,183 per game.

Jacksonville (1-1, 0-0 in Pioneer League): The Dolphins have tip-toed into 2018. One game wiped out by a hurricane, followed by a bye week. If you like the running game, you’d love JU. Through two games, the Dolphins have thrown nine passes.

Stetson (3-0, 1-0 in Pioneer): Head coach Roger Hughes was 3-0 one other time, in 2006 at Princeton, when his Tigers won their first six games and finished 9-1 as co-champs of the Ivy League. Hatters face San Diego this weekend and, you know, at least the weather should be nice — 4-0 is highly unlikely.

Pickin’ and Grinnin’

I’d like to thank Blake Bortles for sparing me the arrogance that would’ve surely erupted from a perfect 3-0 week of NFL picks. You can’t win ’em all. Apparently. But you can keep trying.

Tampa Bay (2-1) at Chicago (2-1): Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston? There doesn’t seem to be a perfect answer, but let’s all agree that it’s a better dilemma than the old choice between Randy Hedberg and Jeb Blount. Frankly, if I’m a Bucs QB, I check out film of Khalil Mack and grab a clipboard and ballcap. Bears 20, Bucs 12.

N.Y. Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville (2-1): Good news for the Jags, they don’t have to see the Titans again until December. Jets QB Sam Darnold is about to learn the difference between Pac 12 and NFL pass rushes, and he’s also likely to learn the positive attributes of an ice bath — Jags 24, Jets 9.

Miami (3-0) at New England (1-2): This may shock you, but eventually, Tom Brady will grow too old and Bill Belichick will lose his mojo. It’s darn near inevitable. Some are wondering if we’re on the front edge of that right now. Others know they’ve seen this show before, only to see things turn around dramatically in Foxboro. Let’s get out ahead of the curve — Dolphins 27, Patriots 20.

Reach Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com