Predicting Week 5’s biggest Iowa high school football games

District play is here, which means we’ll slowly but surely see those new high school RPI rankings correct themselves over the next five weeks.

The Iowa High School Athletic Association has released updated rankings each of the past two weeks, and they’ve been, uh, comical, for a number of reasons. Teams are lower (or higher) in the rankings now than they presumably will be come Week 9.

Take, for example, Dowling Catholic, the five-time defending Class 4A state champ. If the playoffs started right now, the Maroons wouldn’t be in, as they’re No. 18. That ranking will undoubtedly change once they begin picking teams off in district play.

It’s just the way the math works. Remember: The RPI is decided by your team’s record, opponent’s records and opponent’s opponents’ records. It will update every week, so we’ll get a better idea of who the final 16 teams in each class are as the season moves along.

So Dowling’s non-district schedule will actually help them down the line, at least with respective to the opponents’ records. The Maroons played Waukee (2-2), West Des Moines Valley (4-0), Johnston (3-1) and Ankeny Centennial (4-0). All of them figure to be playoff teams.

Another team to watch is Southeast Polk. The Rams are 1-3 right now, but they played Valley, Waukee, Iowa City West before beating Des Moines East last week. If the Rams can pile up wins in district play, they will surely jump from their current No. 25 spot into playoff contention.

MORE IOWA HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL COVERAGE

• RANKINGS: Class-by-Class and the Super 10
• STAT LEADERS: A look at some of the state's best heading into Week 5
• Mason City's Seth Drumheller plays football while still receiving cancer treatments
• Scouting Report: Greene County's Tyler Miller oozes with potential

All of that begins in earnest this week, and I bring up Southeast Polk because they’re the first game in this week’s picks. You’ll find the rest of them, along with the reader’s votes, below.

No. 10 Fort Dodge vs. Southeast Polk

Analysis: This one is all sorts of intriguing. Southeast Polk is 1-3 with losses to teams that are a combined 9-3. Fort Dodge is 3-1 with wins over teams that are a combined 3-9. If the Rams can slow down the Dodgers’ dangerous passing attack, they might get back on track this year.

Pick: Southeast Polk, 42-35

Readers' Vote: Southeast Polk (59%)

Class 3A: No. 9 ADM (Adel) vs. Harlan

Analysis: Big-time opportunity here for ADM. The Tigers are in a meat-grinder of a district that features Glenwood, Lewis Central, Winterset, Creston and, of course, Harlan. A win here could set the tone for the rest of the district slate, but the Cyclones won’t just roll over.

Pick: No. 9 ADM (Adel) 21-20

Readers' Vote: No. 9 ADM (Adel) (54%)

Class 2A: No. 1 PCM (Monroe) vs. No. 8 Chariton

Analysis: Top-ranked PCM is averaging 43.3 points per game, the second most in Class 2A. Chariton is only putting up 27.3 a game, but Dylan Cain is among 2A’s best rushers, at 569 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Can he break through the Mustangs’ stingy defense?

Pick: No. 1 PCM (Monroe) 40-20

Readers' Vote: No. 1 PCM (Monroe) (89%)

Class 1A: No. 6 West Branch vs. No. 8 Bellevue

Analysis: Could see some fireworks here. Bellevue enters this top-10 matchup with 1A’s best offense at 42.8 points per game. West Branch is second at 42 points per game. These two teams are pretty evenly matched across the board, but the Bears’ defense could be the difference here.

Pick: No. 6 West Branch 35-32

Readers' Vote: No. 6 West Branch (70%)

Class A: No. 8 Highland (Riverside) vs. BGM (Brooklyn)

Analysis: BGM’s offense and defense are both ranked in the top three statistically in Class A after four weeks, but they’ve piled up those numbers against teams that are a combined 1-15. This is a monster game for them, in other words, as Highland looks like a legit playoff contender.

Pick: No. 8 Highland (Riverside) 35-21

Reader’s Vote: No. 8 Highland (Riverside) (63%)

Last Week — Cody, 2-3; Readers, 3-2

Regular Season Record — Cody, 15-5; Readers, 13-7

Cody Goodwin covers wrestling and high school sports for the Des Moines Register. Follow him on Twitter at @codygoodwin.