You can fret over inclement Churchill Downs weather for today's 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby, if you like.
And, yes, the track for the $2 million Run for the Roses will, at the very best, be something less than dry and fast.
And you can worry over the post position draws from Wednesday, which saw some of the favorites in the 20-horse field draw far outside in the starting gates.
And even complain that the level of horse flesh heading to the paddock for the big race isn't what it might be.
Too late for that now.
The bottom line to it all is pretty simple: Those gates spring open sometime shortly after 6 p.m. - rain or shine and no matter the post draw - and the three-year-old that gets the 1 1/4 - mile fastest wins the most coveted prize in all of racing.
Who will that be?
Here's what we think, and why.
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WHAT: 143RD KENTUCKY DERBY
WHEN: SATURDAY, MAY 6
WHERE: CHURCHILL DOWNS, LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
DISTANCE 11/4 MILE
POST TIME: 6:34 P.M. (NBC)
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MCCRAKEN - P.P. 15 - ODDS 5-1 - TRAINER IAN WILKES/JOCKEY BRIAN HERNANDEZ JR.
The Ghostzapper colt is 4-of-5 lifetime, his only stumble a third-place finish in the G2 Blue Grass last out. That can be explained away by a leg issue that has seemed to come around since. Can sit off the pace, likes it wet, and has been working well at Churchill in recent days. We like him to fire from a stalking position late.
IRISH WAR CRY - P.P. 17 - ODDS 6-1 - TRAINER GRAHAM MOTION/JOCKEY RAJIV MARAGH
Irish War Cry has every chance to cross the finish line first today at Churchill Downs
The son of two-time Horse of the Year, Curlin, could become the first Derby winner from the 17-post. The Wood Memorial victor has posted three triple-digit speed numbers in his last four. If he is as sound as he appears, will be in the hunt deep into the stretch.
HENCE - P.P. 8 - ODDS 15-1 - TRAINER STEVE ASMUSSEN/JOCKEY FLORENT GEROUX
A.P. Indy family member that rallied from 10th to a blow-away win last out in the G3 Sunland Derby - while posting a 103 speed rating - has definitely caught people's attention along the Churchill Downs backstretch. Nice post draw, and be running from the second flite late.
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That's our first three. We'll be playing them with:
TAPWRIT - P.P. 16 - ODDS 20-1 - TRAINER TODD PLETCHER/JOCKEY JOSE ORTIZ
Another outside post horse who is suited for the distance, has been steadily on the improve, and will like to see some open umbrellas during the post parade. The 11-length Blue Grass loss to Irap? He blew the start.
CLASSIC EMPIRE - P.P. 14 - ODDS 4-1 - TRAINER MARK CASSE/JOCKEY JULIEN LEPAROUX
I have my doubts that the morning-line favorite is the horse he was last fall when he copped the BC Juvenile and 2-year-old H-of-Y honors. But the Arkansas Derby win was enough to look at him for a spot in the exotics.
GUNNEVERA - P.P. 10 - ODDS 15-1 - TRAINER ANTONIO SANO/JOCKEY JAVIER CASTELLANO
Never really got in the mix during the Florida Derby in an eventual third-place finish to Always Dreaming. But has cashed five times in his six graded stakes starts and looks like he'll take to the distance.
That's six horses in the 20-horse field.
I'm going to take a flyer with a McCraken - Irish War Cry exacta box, and those two horses over the others in triple wagers.
Hence will get some money with those two and Tapwrit in triple and exacta boxes.
Remember, when it comes to placing a wager on the Kentucky Derby the 20-horse field often makes for some incredibly difficult traffic problems. So, this isn't an ideal spot for serious betting. Pick a couple you like and take stab at getting a nice return if you are lucky enough to prevail.
And as for those concerns we spoke of earlier?
Forget them.
The weather?
Most of the above selections have already proven themselves versatile enough to handle the off going.
And as for the fact that four of the six are breaking from the No.14 post position or higher?
Since 2000, nine of 17 Kentucky Derby winners have run out of post No.13 or above.