Xi, Suga will keep their first call sweet, analysts say – so no talk of Hong Kong, Taiwan or the Diaoyu Islands
- Japan’s new prime minister and the Chinese president are set to speak for the first time by phone on Friday
- Likely to come up is Xi’s planned state visit, delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic and facing opposition from politicians in Suga’s party
Xi will congratulate Suga on his election, and the two leaders will express their commitment to harmonious and mutually beneficial ties as they “seek to take the heat out of the relationship”, one expert suggested.
One of the issues that is likely to come up is the possibility of resurrecting the plan for Xi to pay a state visit to Japan. The Chinese leader was scheduled to visit earlier this year, but the trip was delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak.
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Akitoshi Miyashita, a professor of international relations at Tokyo International University, said he believed Suga would like the state visit to go ahead “at some point”.
Miyashita said that while Suga was likely to face dissent over Xi’s trip, he would be swayed by Toshihiro Nikai, whom the new prime minister has retained as LDP secretary-general. He added that Nikai – known for his pro-Chinese attitude – might already be using his contacts to push ahead with plans for the visit, which he would promote as being in the national interest.
James Brown, a professor of international relations at the Tokyo campus of Temple University, agreed that the two leaders’ first conversation would be a “getting-to-know-you” call that avoided mention of the Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute, or Japan’s plans to develop a first-strike capability against foreign military bases it considers a threat to the nation’s security.
“It is remarkable to me that this is the first time the leaders of the two nations have spoken by phone since May 2018, and I think both leaders will want to see the relationship getting off on the right foot,” he said. “They will want to play it safe.”
Brown said Xi’s state visit was likely to be discussed, although he said Suga might be more circumspect on the matter, given domestic opposition that can point to the “rather unfriendly” intrusion of Chinese government ships into waters close to the disputed islands for 111 consecutive days earlier this year.
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“I think they want to reschedule a visit, but I believe Suga may purposely use rather vague language and suggest it go ahead ‘when conditions are right’ or something similar,” he said.
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Relations between the two countries remain testy over issues of history and a series of tit-for-tat economic sanctions imposed last year, although it appears that the new Japanese leader hopes to be able to improve ties.
Government officials told the Fuji News Network Xi and Suga would not address the issues that had caused such ill-feeling, such as forced labour of Koreans during Japan’s colonial rule and trade restrictions imposed on Seoul.
Earlier in the week, Suga replied to a congratulatory message from Moon by expressing his hopes for a “forward-looking” relationship.
He is also expected to host Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison as early as November, in a visit The Australian reported was designed to reinforce strategic cooperation in the face of China’s increasing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Temple University’s Brown said it was possible Suga and Morrison would sign an agreement on visiting forces that would permit members of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces to train in Australia and vice versa.
“This is a major landmark for Japan as it supplements the security relationship that Tokyo has with the United States,” he said. “Tokyo has never had an agreement like this with any nation other than the US and it reinforces Australia as Japan’s closest security partner after Washington.”
