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2018 NFL Mock Draft: Updated 1st-Round Selection Order and Predictions

Brian Marron@@brianmarron398X.com LogoFeatured ColumnistFebruary 16, 2018

PHOENIX, AZ - DECEMBER 26:  Quarterback Josh Rosen #3 of the UCLA Bruins throws the football prior to the Cactus Bowl against Kansas State Wildcats at Chase Field on December 26, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Kansas State Wildcats won 35-17.  (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images

With the Super Bowl over, the NFL's landscape is all about player personnel changes, and the draft is the offseason's premier event in that capacity.

Like the rest of this offseason, quarterbacks are all the rage in the 2018 NFL draft. Numerous teams have serious question marks at the sport's most important position, including several with top 10 picks. With a few top signal-callers available, there will be plenty of clamoring at the top of the draft.

The first-round draft order is certain to change thanks to said demand. Also, the Kirk Cousins factor—and possibly Tyrod Taylor, for that matter—could change plans. But familiar names should still come off of the board early.

                   

2018 NFL Mock Draft

1. Cleveland Browns: QB Josh Rosen, UCLA

2. New York Giants: QB Sam Darnold, USC

3. Indianapolis Colts: DE Bradley Chubb, NC State

4. Cleveland Browns (via Houston): OG Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame

5. Denver Broncos: OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame

6. New York Jets: QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama

8. Chicago Bears: WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama

*9. Oakland Raiders: LB Roquan Smith, Georgia

*10: San Francisco 49ers: WR Courtland Sutton, SMU

11. Miami Dolphins: RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State

12. Cincinnati Bengals: OL Isaiah Wynn, Georgia

13. Washington Redskins: LB Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech

14. Green Bay Packers: CB Josh Jackson, Iowa

15. Arizona Cardinals: QB Josh Allen, Wyoming

16. Baltimore Ravens: WR James Washington, Oklahoma State

17. Los Angeles Chargers: LB Rashaan Evans, Alabama

18. Seattle Seahawks: OT Orlando Brown, Oklahoma

19. Dallas Cowboys: CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State

20. Detroit Lions: OG Will Hernandez, UTEP

21. Buffalo Bills: WR Christian Kirk, Texas A&M

22. Buffalo Bills (via Kansas City): OG Billy Price, Ohio State

23. Los Angeles Rams: S Derwin James, Florida State

24. Carolina Panthers: CB Carlton Davis, Auburn

25. Tennessee Titans: DE Marcus Davenport, UTSA

26. Atlanta Falcons: DT Da'Ron Payne, Alabama

27. New Orleans Saints: DT Vita Vea, Washington

28. Pittsburgh Steelers: DE Harold Landry, Boston College

29. Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville

30. Minnesota Vikings: OT Connor Williams, Texas

31. New England Patriots: DE Arden Key, LSU

32. Philadelphia Eagles: DT Maurice Hurst, Michigan

*A coin-flip will be held to determine the No. 9 and No. 10 picks.

              

Familiar Scenario at No. 1 and No. 2

An NFL cliche will always ring true: It is a quarterback-driven league.

Thus, when multiple signal-callers are considered top-five talents, teams will always jockey at the top of the draft to select their quarterback. There is a reason quarterbacks have gone first and second overall in two of the past three years and three times since 2012, when Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III broke on to the scene.

With Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen all garnering serious attention as potential high first-round picks, the stage is set for two quarterback-hungry franchises to find themselves following the recent trend.

The Cleveland Browns and the New York Giants are both inclined to take a quarterback at their draft slots. The Browns' disastrous quarterback history is well-documented, as Johnny Manziel was the last Cleveland player to win a game on a Sunday under center, which came way back on Dec. 13, 2015.

They passed on Carson Wentz in 2016 and then on Deshaun Watson last year, so would they trade back a third time?

According to ESPN 850 in Cleveland's Nathan Zegura, there would be only one reason to take this route again:

Nathan Zegura @NathanZegura

I could be wrong, but I don’t think there is any qb out there other than Kirk Cousins who would make the browns even consider not taking a QB at 1.

If Cleveland were to snag Cousins, they could either trade back or select two top-end players to position around him. For now, though, expect them to go with Rosen, who is still the most complete quarterback in the draft given his arm talent and toughness in the pocket. He was sacked 54 times over the past three years, which means he is not afraid to take a hit.

Want to talk about resiliency? Rosen has exhibited that too, as arguably no other quarterback could have led the incredible comeback he did to open the year against Texas A&M:

As for No. 2, there is a bit more volatility.

The Giants should be looking for a quarterback given the disaster that took place last season but have no need to be married to taking one with Eli Manning still under contract for the next two years. They could trade back and aim to rebuild one of the worst offensive lines in football, which would not be a bad decision.

Either way, any team that would be willing pay the price of moving up to No. 2 overall would likely only be doing so to draft a quarterback, which makes the one-and-two overall scenario more certain. Darnold is the best choice at No. 2 simply because of his accuracy.

No other quarterback can fit a ball into a tight window like Darnold, but he does need to improve his decision-making after tossing 13 picks a year ago. Yet more interceptions are to be expected given he threw the ball 114 more times as a sophomore compared to his freshman season. NFL Network's Charley Casserly broke down further what makes Darnold so good:

Charley Casserly @CharleyCasserly

Why I rate Sam Darnold @USC_Athletics over Josh Rosen @UCLAFootball @Browns @Giants @nflnetwork https://t.co/JhY5K8jwEt

Allen or Mayfield could easily break into this group, but it looks destined to be another draft with two quarterbacks taken at the top.

                  

Don't Forget About the Receivers

Lost in the hoopla over the quarterbacks is that 2018's wide receiver class has the potential to approach the level of the vaunted 2014 group that included Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry and more.

At the top is the clear best possession receiver in the class: Calvin Ridley. 

As a freshman, Ridley wasted no time ascending to Alabama's No. 1 receiver role, logging a whopping 89 catches for 1,045 yards and seven touchdowns. Even with a drop in downfield passing ability in the Crimson Tide offense, Ridley still amassed 135 catches over the past two seasons. The guy simply gets open, and 105. 3 The Fan in Dallas' Jeff Cavanaugh noted the Alabama product's ability to do so in critical downs:

Jeff Cavanaugh @JC1053

Playing around with creating a little receiver chart. 3rd down catches this year: Michael Gallup - 23 DJ Moore - 19 Calvin Ridley - 17 Courtland Sutton - 13 Anthony Miller - 12 James Washington - 7

Ridley is similar to Larry Fitzgerald in that he is an elite security blanket. He makes the catches his team needs him to make, and he can also make plays downfield thanks to his top-end route running. He would be a perfect fit for the Chicago Bears, with whom he would be alongside a developing quarterback like Mitchell Trubisky, whose top receiver last year was Kendall Wright with a mere 614 yards.

Courtland Sutton also has superstar potential thanks to his scary combination of being 6'4" and having downfield speed to burn. Over the past two years, Sutton racked up just under 2,500 yards to go with 144 receptions and 22 touchdowns for SMU.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo could use some help earning that gargantuan contract considering his top target was Marquise Goodwin, with 962 yards, followed by George Kittle and Pierre Garcon, who each totaled a little more than 500 yards.

Goodwin had never eclipsed 500 yards in his career until last year, which throws doubt on his reliability as a No. 1 receiver. Sutton would fit in as an immediate force on the outside who could compete with NFL-sized defensive backs. If he can realize his immense upside, then look out.

As for the other two receivers to land in this first-round mock draft, it is all about speed.

James Washington could be looked at as a one-trick pony given his frequency to score on deep throws and the 20 yards per catch he posted over the past three seasons. However, his burst off of the line and ability to get open are underrated. Pro Football Focus' Steve Palazzolo noted that no other receiver was better in tight coverage a year ago:

Steve Palazzolo @PFF_Steve

Oklahoma State WR James Washington led the nation with 17.2 yards/attempt when facing press coverage, best in the nation. Best WR vs. press at the @seniorbowl in PFF 1-on-1 grading #PFFDraft

This opens the window for Washington to dominate underneath in loose coverage, making him a dynamic weapon. At worst, Washington will be a Mike Wallace-type player in the NFL, but his ceiling makes him a terror for opposing defenses, as they would pretty much always need to send help to account for his speed.

Finally, Christian Kirk may end up being the best offensive value pick in the draft.

Kirk can contribute anywhere. Need a security blanket underneath? How about Kirk's 229 catches during his three years at Texas A&M. Explosive plays? Kirk was among the most dynamic threats in the SEC during his college career, and he racked up 26 touchdowns in the process. Special teams? Kirk averaged a ridiculous 22 yards per return on punts and scored six times in his career, including his first return, via KAGS in College Station's Colin Deaver:

Colin Deaver @ColinDeaverTV

My lasting image of @ChristianDavon2 at Texas A&M: his first game as an Aggie, housing the first punt he ever received against his hometown Arizona State Sun Devils. Kirk was the real deal from day 1. #12thMan https://t.co/vYeVn9OIrA

Oh, and he also brought a kick back for a touchdown as an Aggie.

Kirk offers instant offense, and his route running is good enough to allow him to be a playmaker on third down. Putting him alongside a possession receiver like Jordan Matthews with the Buffalo Bills would be a great fit for a team that lacked explosiveness in the return game—ranking 24th in punt return yards and 17th in kick-return yardage—along with any downfield threat.

Expect this class to make some noise next season, and look for it to appear even better three years down the road.

                      

Statistics are courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.