What will grocery shopping in Greater Lafayette look like in five years?

LAFAYETTE, Ind. — “I read somewhere that people overestimate the amount of change they’ll see in two years but underestimate the amount they’ll see in five,” Scott Walker, CEO and president of Greater Lafayette Commerce, said.

Doubtless, this is true for many areas of business, commerce and industry. It certainly applies to the grocery store industry, which over the past half-decade has been revolutionized.

In addition to services such as Kroger’s ClickList, which allows for online shopping and curbside pick-up, more high-end grocery stores have entered the market, grocery delivery services have become pervasive and Amazon is disrupting the industry with its acquisition of Whole Foods and first-ever automated grocery store.

Greater Lafayette’s local grocery landscape also has been recently disrupted. Both Marsh supermarkets closed last year when the company was liquidated. Fresh City Market in West Lafayette, adjacent to Purdue University, closed early this year, leaving a vast, vacant space and no walkable grocery for students.

Needler's Fresh Market will open in April in the old Lafayette Marsh location, but Richard Feinberg, a Purdue professor of consumer sciences, thinks there are much larger changes in store for Greater Lafayette's grocery shopping future. And that vision is closer than you might think. 

"People have less time now than they ever did," Feinberg said. "They don't cook all the time, but they don't want to eat out all the time either." 

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This has led to a couple recent trends, which Feinberg said are just starting to gain traction in Greater Lafayette. 

The first is the availability of healthy prepared foods in grocery stores, such as the salad bar at Fresh Thyme in Lafayette or the rotisserie chickens offered by Pay Less Super Markets. 

Eric Halvorson, a spokesman for Kroger, said Pay Less sees this trend and is attempting to cater to its customers' busy lifestyles. 

"We have Prep+Pared Meal Kits appearing in more and more stores now," Halvorson said. "Our chefs create the food combinations to help people who don't have time to prepare meals in the traditional fashion." The meals advertise "kit to fork" in 20 minutes. 

In addition to fast eats, customers also want fresh, organic foods when they do cook, Feinberg added. 

That's a trend Walker has noticed too, and has even been reflected in the restaurants that have recently opened. 

"That trend will continue; that is a real and alive trend," Walker said. "Just look at the restaurants that have opened here recently like Pure Eatery." 

Finally, Feinberg said, some people don't want to go to grocery stores at all, which is why services like Amazon Prime Pantry have taken off. With this service, customers can order household and pantry essentials, from paper towels to canned soup, delivered right to their doors. With Amazon's recent acquisition of Whole Foods, Feinberg continued, he thinks people will soon be able to do all their grocery shopping online and have products arrive only hours later. 

These kinds of delivery services, however, are more pervasive in larger, urban settings. 

"These things are going to take longer to come here, but they shouldn't because it's easier to do here," Feinberg said. 

Local grocery stores and services should already be thinking about how to compete with forces like Amazon, he continued. 

"Grocery stores operate on such thin margins, they can't afford to lose profits. Amazon is going to beat them. They will deliver the things we get on inertia like paper towels and diapers." 

Halvorson said Kroger knows the grocery shopping landscape is changing, and changing fast, but he doesn't necessarily think brick-and-mortar stores will become obsolete. 

"We believe our stores are still among our most important assets – because our people, our Pay Less associates, are so important," he said. "We promise a friendly and caring environment that isn’t possible with online shopping." 

That being said, Halvorson added, there are ways Kroger seeks to incorporate technology. In addition to ClickList, Pay Less stores soon will offer a system called Scan, Bag, Go, in which customers can use a wireless scanner or smartphone app to scan items as they shop and then pay either on the app or by bringing the scanner to a self-checkout lane. Halvorson said he anticipates the technology to arrive in Indiana this spring. 

"We know the way people eat will always change," he said. 

One thing Feinberg said that will keep people coming to brick-and-mortar stores are loyalty programs, something Pay Less and other local stores already are doing. 

"Pay Less does discounted gas, which is very smart," he said. "People will drive 20 miles to save 10 cents a gallon." 

But they could be doing a lot more with rewards programs, he continued. 

"Loyalty programs are going to change quickly. Now they don't know you're a loyal customer until after we check out. But there is no reason they can't know when you enter the store," Feinberg said. "This could change things in 30 different ways." 

Walker said he sees the local demand for higher-end, smaller grocery stores that sell fresh ingredients and prepared foods. While Greater Lafayette Commerce isn't in the business of courting grocery stores, the industry and business they do bring in help support a more dynamic local retail landscape, one that could easily grow to include a greater variety of grocery options. 

"Those dollars that come back into the community ... that makes us a more attractive destination for companies that serve people in those jobs," Walker said. 

And as jobs, dollars and retail pour into Greater Lafayette, Feinberg said we'll begin seeing a greater variety of shopping options that cater to customers' busy lives and demand for integrated technology. Those stores that don't keep pace won't be around for long. 

"I can get a tomato anywhere," he said. "I can get a cantaloupe anywhere. Most of the product is the same; give me a reason to come back."

Reach Journal & Courier reporter Emma Ea Ambrose at eambrose@gannett.com or 765-431-1192.