What Is NMC Health's (LON:NMC) P/E Ratio After Its Share Price Tanked?

To the annoyance of some shareholders, NMC Health (LON:NMC) shares are down a considerable 31% in the last month. That drop has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 38% in that time.

All else being equal, a share price drop should make a stock more attractive to potential investors. In the long term, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, but in the short term prices bounce around in response to short term factors (which are not always obvious). So, on certain occasions, long term focussed investors try to take advantage of pessimistic expectations to buy shares at a better price. Perhaps the simplest way to get a read on investors' expectations of a business is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). Investors have optimistic expectations of companies with higher P/E ratios, compared to companies with lower P/E ratios.

Check out our latest analysis for NMC Health

How Does NMC Health's P/E Ratio Compare To Its Peers?

We can tell from its P/E ratio of 17.51 that sentiment around NMC Health isn't particularly high. We can see in the image below that the average P/E (23.4) for companies in the healthcare industry is higher than NMC Health's P/E.

LSE:NMC Price Estimation Relative to Market, December 19th 2019
LSE:NMC Price Estimation Relative to Market, December 19th 2019

Its relatively low P/E ratio indicates that NMC Health shareholders think it will struggle to do as well as other companies in its industry classification. Many investors like to buy stocks when the market is pessimistic about their prospects. It is arguably worth checking if insiders are buying shares, because that might imply they believe the stock is undervalued.

How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios

Earnings growth rates have a big influence on P/E ratios. If earnings are growing quickly, then the 'E' in the equation will increase faster than it would otherwise. Therefore, even if you pay a high multiple of earnings now, that multiple will become lower in the future. So while a stock may look expensive based on past earnings, it could be cheap based on future earnings.

It's great to see that NMC Health grew EPS by 24% in the last year. And it has bolstered its earnings per share by 26% per year over the last five years. With that performance, you might expect an above average P/E ratio.

Don't Forget: The P/E Does Not Account For Debt or Bank Deposits

The 'Price' in P/E reflects the market capitalization of the company. So it won't reflect the advantage of cash, or disadvantage of debt. The exact same company would hypothetically deserve a higher P/E ratio if it had a strong balance sheet, than if it had a weak one with lots of debt, because a cashed up company can spend on growth.

Spending on growth might be good or bad a few years later, but the point is that the P/E ratio does not account for the option (or lack thereof).

So What Does NMC Health's Balance Sheet Tell Us?

NMC Health has net debt equal to 32% of its market cap. While that's enough to warrant consideration, it doesn't really concern us.

The Verdict On NMC Health's P/E Ratio

NMC Health's P/E is 17.5 which is about average (17.9) in the GB market. Given it has reasonable debt levels, and grew earnings strongly last year, the P/E indicates the market has doubts this growth can be sustained. Since analysts are predicting growth will continue, one might expect to see a higher P/E so it may be worth looking closer. Given NMC Health's P/E ratio has declined from 25.4 to 17.5 in the last month, we know for sure that the market is significantly less confident about the business today, than it was back then. For those who prefer to invest with the flow of momentum, that might be a bad sign, but for a contrarian, it may signal opportunity.

Investors should be looking to buy stocks that the market is wrong about. As value investor Benjamin Graham famously said, 'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. So this free report on the analyst consensus forecasts could help you make a master move on this stock.

You might be able to find a better buy than NMC Health. If you want a selection of possible winners, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20 (but have proven they can grow earnings).

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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