With the NY Daily News's Peter Botte reporting on Saturday that the Mets will keep a candle in the window for the A's Joe Blanton, I found myself asking one question:
Where does Blanton pitch in the '08 rotation?
And that led me to a bigger question: So far this offseason, rumors linked the Mets to every available starting pitcher whose arm is still attached. I understand Johan, Bedard, and Haren... but when the likes of Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse simmer on the Mets' Hot Stove, I can't help but wonder: Is that really an upgrade over what we have now?
Here's the rundown of the presumed '08 starting rotation, and where those rumored starters might step in to help:
1) Pedro Martinez - When Pedro signed with the Mets for 4 years and $40 mil, everyone said the Mets would not regret it in year one, but would in year 4. Anyone kicking themselves over that signing now? We know he has the makeup and the smarts to pitch like a #1, but we can't help but wonder, though: Can he do it for a whole season? Answer: Don't hold your breath.
Who could bump Pedro from his rotation spot?
- Johan Santana - If you don't know why by now, you never will.
- Erik Bedard - Unlikely. All signs point to Bedard staying in Baltimore, unless Santana goes to Boston or the Yanks and the Mets decide to make a splash.
2) John Maine - Maine's still the greatest thing Kris Benson ever did for the Mets. He's consistent, flirted with 200 IP in '07, and should get there with ease in '08. Maine is the Mets' primary workhorse.
Who could bump Maine from his rotation spot? No one of note.
3) Oliver Perez - As the Mets' other workhorse, no one doubts that Ollie Perez can pitch. You can't question his '07 numbers (3.56 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 174 Ks, 2.20 K/BB in 29 starts). We also know he can get up for big games (see: 2006 NLCS Game 7). We all can't shake the slight fear that Perez might regress back to his '05-'06 Pirates form. Perez has yet to put together back-to-back solid seasons. Here's hoping 2008 puts an end to that.
Who could bump Perez from his rotation spot?
- Joe Blanton - Much like Perez, Blanton delivered solid numbers in '07 (3.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 140 Ks, 1.57 K/BB in 34 starts). They're not as pretty as Ollie's, but Blanton consistently delivered his stats each year since coming up with the A's in '04. Blanton only comes to Flushing if the Mets concede Johan. And it won't be cheap - Heilman/Gomez/Mulvey are the hot names in this trade rumor. That could've been easier to swallow if the A's still had Nick Swisher to package. Too rich for my blood, unless Huston Street works his way in.
4) Orlando Hernandez - And right here is why the Mets can't seem to stop searching the SP scrap heap for arms. El Duque showed he can still pitch (3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 128 Ks, 2.00 K/BB in 24 starts), but at an age anywhere between 39 and 43, is anyone sure he can keep going? At best, he's a 6-inning pitcher, which will put a strain on the bullpen if he falters.
Who could bump El Duque from his rotation spot?
- Bartolo Colon - The ultimate "high risk, high reward" free agent pitcher available. He'll be cheap after two seasons shortened by injuries. His numbers weren't anything to shout about in '07 (6.34 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 76 Ks in 18 starts), but he did keep up respectable K/BB (2.62), K/9 and BB/9 ratios (2.62 and 2.63, respectively). He's worth a gamble, if the Mets feel the need to take one.
- Livan Hernandez - The beauty of Livan is that you know exactly what you'll get: a flyball pitcher and 200 IPs, two things the Mets could use in their swan song season at Shea. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, though - and he will get smacked around periodically. I'll still take it.
5) Mike Pelfrey - If he doesn't leave for Minnesota or Oakland in coming weeks, Pelfrey will presumably get his shot at a regular rotation spot this season. We know his fastball is filthy - but if he doesn't rediscover his changeup or find another out pitch, his tenure as a Mets starter will be brief.
Who could bump Pelfrey from his rotation spot?
- Philip Humber - Not likely, if only because he currently doesn't have enough experience to take on a regular rotation spot. He needs to pitch somewhere regularly at the start of the season, be it the Mets' bullpen as a long reliever or in New Orleans as a starter. If he demonstrates control of his fastball and curve in Spring Training, he will give Pelfrey a run for his money. And if both he and Pelfrey demonstrate great progress in Port St. Lucie, then they could conceiveably bump El Duque to the bullpen.
- Freddy Garcia - Also not likely. Garcia spent most of '07 on the DL, and didn't pitch well for the White Sox in '06 or in his brief stint with Philly in '07. So he'll come cheap and with some upside if he can return to his pre-2006 form, but who knows what to expect after his recovery. Pass.
- Kyle Lohse - Please don't be likely. If El Duque shows his age and Pelfrey falters, the Mets will need someone to pitch. Lohse can serviceably do that, but definitely not for 4 years and $40 million.
- Jon Lieber - Let's just hope it doesn't come to Jon Lieber, OK?
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Worth Mentioning
The Mets reacquired OF Angel Pagan from the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. Pagan rose through the ranks in the Mets system from the Brooklyn Cyclones before being purchased by Chicago before the '06 season. He will presumably start the season in New Orleans, and provide outfield depth for the Mets. A season too late.