In the moments after the final whistle blew in Penrith at the weekend, the immediate effects of the Matildas’ defeat to Chile were apparent: frustration, disappointment and likely a degree of bewilderment over some profligate finishing at one end and shoddy defending at the other.
But the full consequences of the result are yet to fully materialise, with Australia’s hopes at next year’s World Cup potentially suffering from the result: the shock 3-2 home loss to the South Americans – ranked 39th in the world by Fifa – has put the Matildas’ chances of securing a crucial seeding for the tournament in jeopardy.
The World Cup format comprises six groups of four teams, with each of the world’s top six-ranked teams to be placed in separate groups. Alen Stajcic’s Matildas are currently ranked sixth, but Saturday’s upset means the retention of that position is now out of their own hands.
The 10th-ranked Netherlands stand to make the biggest jump when the latest rankings are released by Fifa on 7 December and if they beat Switzerland for the second time in four days when the two sides meet again on Tuesday night (5am Wednesday AEDT), they will leapfrog the Matildas.
The Netherlands – unlike Australia, yet to qualify for the World Cup – won the first leg of their European qualification playoff against the Swiss at the weekend. And if they win the second leg in Schaffhausen, regardless of what the Matildas do against Chile in Newcastle hours earlier, they will claim that final seeded berth in France.
Fifa’s method for calculating rankings is notoriously difficult to fathom, but the organisation claims that “although a certain amount of mathematics is inevitable, the system used is still easily understandable”. Factors taken into account when awarding rankings points not only include the results of matches, but also the “importance” of matches, whether they are played at home or away, and the difference in rankings between those teams playing each other.
“The basic formula of the WWR is in fact quite simple: WWR,new = WWR,old + (Actual – Predicted),” the Fifa website explains. It also claims the system “enables all interested parties to understand the teams’ movements, or even to calculate the ranking themselves”.
Lachy France, a data analyst for the Women’s Game website, has crunched the numbers and, by analysing relevant results, managed to calculate the current rankings and the effect on those of future results.
France told Guardian Australia the only way a draw would be enough for the Matildas to secure sixth place is if the Netherlands also draw or lose. “The Netherlands are minus seven points behind the Matildas,” he said. “They’d get 11.5 or so for a 1-0 win. The Matildas can’t get more than one point for a win over Chile, even if it’s 6-0.”
The Matildas would have automatically secured the sixth seeded berth with a pair of victories over Chile.
This week’s games mark the final international window before Fifa announces its final rankings of the year, a day before the Women’s World Cup draw is made on 8 December.