Pacers plot major splash in free agency to vault them forward for 2018-19 season

INDIANAPOLIS –The NBA draft is all about projections — and endless conjecture — but the truth is it’s just an offseason appetizer. The main course is free agency that begins next month and what happens there can immediately change the Pacers’ path to becoming a contender.

It's the meat and potatoes of what will be the 2018-19 season, for better or worse.

“Now the real games begin for us,” president Kevin Pritchard said. “The draft is a good place to look at the future. Maybe you get a guy who gets in the rotation next year.”

Maybe, but unlikely when the team is already playoff-caliber and drafting 23rd and 50th as the Pacers did last week. 

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A year ago, Pritchard traded Paul George to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis on July 6. It wasn’t evident at the time, but that move during free agency produced a 48-win season and a playoff appearance in which the Pacers pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games.

Drafting T.J. Leaf at No. 18 and Ike Anigbogu at 47 in 2017 didn’t impact that success. The same likely will be said after the Pacers drafted Aaron Holiday and Alize Johnson on Thursday. It’s not that they don’t have potential or won’t eventually contribute, but it’s rare for non-lottery picks to become game-changers overnight.

It's even rare for high-end lottery selections. With the draft pool being younger and less experienced, LeBron James and Tim Duncan aren't walking through that door on Day 1 of their NBA careers.

In Steph Curry’s injury-plagued third season with the Golden State Warriors, he’d only appeared in 26 games and averaged 14.7 points. Three years later, he won his first of consecutive league MVP trophies. It took Oladipo four years before he blossomed into a first-time All-Star in his first season with Indiana. Both went high in the draft lottery.

That’s why free agency, when the Pacers could have almost $30 million in space below the projected luxury tax, is where the amazing happens. Chris Paul's arrival with the Houston Rockets last year made them an instant threat to Golden State.

Compare that impact to these top 10 lottery picks in 2017: Markelle Fultz (Sixers) was injured, Lonzo Ball (Lakers) was so-so though on an improved team, and did Josh Jackson (Suns), DeAron Fox (Kings), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Dennis Smith (Mavs) or Frank Ntilikina (Knicks) turn around those franchises by just appearing?  

Winning is a process and it's about establishing the right culture first. That's a job for veterans to set that foundation. Not 20-year-olds.

That's where the Pacers believe they got it right and are better positioned to take the free-agency leap.

"A lot of things are going to be happening in the next week or two," Pacers coach Nate McMillan said. "And certainly in the month of July."

The Thaddeus Young factor

Thaddeus Young holds the key to whatever the Pacers do or don't do. Players with contract options have until Friday to send in their paperwork to teams if they plan to stay.

Otherwise, they're opting out. While Pritchard said he has had discussions with Young's agent, Jim Tanner, he doesn't have any indication of what will happen. The IndyStar talked to another person with knowledge of Young's situation this weekend who confirmed the accuracy.

Young could opt-out, test the waters and still stay with Indiana by renegotiating a longer-term deal.

This market, however, is tricky. Aside from more teams not having the cap room that existed in the previous two seasons because of spikes created by TV contracts, it's thin on versatile players at Young's position.

Julius Randle (Lakers) is younger as is Aaron Gordon (Magic) but the latter is incredibly raw. Derrick Favors (Jazz) is more experienced but also will occupy the same space. None of them, including Young, is reliable from the 3-point line in a league that values stretch bigs.

The Pacers aren’t expected to be in the mix for the few marquee names as free agents. The trade market, though, should be robust. By not making any deals to take on a big contract on draft night to move up from 23, they’ve retained cap flexibility to make a splash regardless of Young's decision.

“Where we really get better is July 1,” Pritchard said. “I’m not saying we’re going to sign a guy. I think there could be uneven trades. A lot of things can happen with that. We preserved that (space).”

Referring several times to the 6-7 players he regards as his core, Pritchard didn't clarify if Young was part of that equation. If so, that could mean Sabonis and Cory Joseph (already opted in) and puts Lance Stephenson (team option) in question. Or it could mean one of the starting five, Bojan Bogdanvoic (partial guarantee), is in flux.

“We wanted the flexibility to see what this team could do and they wildly overachieved. They deserve to see if they can build on it," Pritchard said. "It’s my job to add a few more players, a few more pieces that could help them get past the first round or at least get to the playoffs. … I wanted to have the flexibility to add a real player July 1.”

Major makeover coming

The Pacers have looked beyond 2018-19 which is where Holiday comes in. Darren Collison has a partial guarantee that they're expected to make a full guarantee for the upcoming season. After that, he’s a free agent.

Joseph is slated to be his backup at point guard again. He doesn’t have a contract for the following season.

It’s no certainty that Holiday will be good enough to take over the lead role but if he’s going to be a credible backup he’ll need the seasoning now to prepare. That’s why drafting him made sense.  

"We felt like we really needed to have a point guard in the pipeline that could at least step into the backup role in the future," Pritchard. "When you're picking 23, it's hard to project a starter.... But he has some characteristics of a starter."

The 2019-20 roster has Oladipo as the only guaranteed salary on the books. If Holiday sticks he'll be listed eventually. Myles Turner and Sabonis? Likely. Leaf? Possibly. Johnson? That's anyone's guess.

There's a major makeover in the offing regardless of what transpires this summer.