Welcome to the inaugural edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Senate Forecast, showing the Democrats projected to win 50.3 seats. Assuming the Dems take over the seats in WI and IL, we need 3 additional seats from IN/NV/MO/NC/NH/PA.
The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts, including own own DocJess. The 3rd column shows a running total of Senate seats.
| State | DCW | Cook | WP | CrystalBall | Rothenberg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Update | 10/20/16 | 9/30/16 | 10/19/16 | 10/10/16 | 10/21/16 | ||
| Dem-Strong | D | 10 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 9 | |
| Dem-Lean | DL | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tossup | T | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
| Rep-Lean | RL | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rep-Strong | R | 16 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 16 | |
| Dem ’16 Projection | 14.3 | 14.9 | 14.5 | 14.2 | 14.0 | 13.8 | |
| Dem ’18/’20 Seats | 36.0 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | |
| Dem Senate Projection | 50.3 | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.2 | 50.0 | 49.8 | |
| Dem-Gain | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||
| CA (Open) | D | 37 | D | D | D | D | D |
| CT (Blumenthal) | D | 38 | D | D | D | D | D |
| HI (Schatz) | D | 39 | D | D | D | D | D |
| MD (Open) | D | 40 | D | D | D | D | D |
| NY (Schumer) | D | 41 | D | D | D | D | D |
| OR (Wyden) | D | 42 | D | D | D | D | D |
| VT (Leahy) | D | 43 | D | D | D | D | D |
| WA (Murray) | D | 44 | D | D | D | D | D |
| CO (Bennet) | D | 45 | D | D | DL | D | D |
| WI (Johnson) | R | 46 | D | DL | DL | D | DL |
| IL (Kirk) | R | 47 | DL | DL | DL | D | DL |
| IN (Open) | R | 48 | DL | T | T | T | T |
| NV (Open) | D | 49 | DL | T | T | T | T |
| MO (Blunt) | R | 50 | T | T | T | T | T |
| NC (Burr) | R | 51 | T | T | T | T | T |
| NH (Ayotte) | R | 52 | T | T | T | T | T |
| PA (Toomey) | R | 53 | T | T | T | T | T |
| FL (Rubio) | R | 54 | T | T | RL | R | RL |
| AZ (MCCain) | R | 55 | R | RL | RL | R | R |
| OH (Portman) | R | 56 | R | RL | RL | R | R |
| GA (Isakson) | R | 57 | R | R | RL | R | R |
| AK (Murkowski) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| AL (Shelby) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| AR (Boozman) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| IA (Grassley) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| ID (Crapo) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| KS (Moran) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| KY (Paul) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| LA (Open) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| ND (Hoeven) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| OK (Lankford) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| SC (Scott) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| SD (Thune) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| UT (Lee) | R | R | R | R | R | R |
