NBA Caucus: NBA preseason award predictions

• All four NBA Caucus participants favor LeBron James for third consecutive MVP Award
• Derrick Rose%2C Kevin Love are obvious comeback player candidates%2C but Channing Frye is darkhorse
• Most improved always is among toughest awards to predict%2C but Eric Bledsoe may be favorite

Once a week, USA TODAY Sports will ask its many NBA experts to analyze hot topics around the NBA. This week's theme is projecting the major awards

1.MOST VALUABLE PLAYER:

Jeff Zillgitt, USA TODAY Sports: Miami Heat forward LeBron James is the best player, yet the odds of him winning a third consecutive MVP are against him for that simple reason that voters ultimately get tired of giving the award to the same guy year after year after year. Boston Celtics Hall of Famer Larry Bird was the last player to win three consecutive MVPs – 1983-84 to 1985-86. Every player who has won two consecutive since then has failed to win in the third season: Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash and James all fell short in their bid to win three consecutive titles.

Plus, if James' statistics decline in the slightest, that will be used against him, especially if Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant's stats — namely shooting percentage, offensive efficiency and assists — increase.

Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul and Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose will also have a say.

Even with that info in support of someone else winning MVP, I'm going with James.

Ian Levy, Hickory High: Barring catastrophic injury, it's hard to imagine anyone having a stronger statistical résumé than James. When you factor in the likely team success the Heat will have during the regular season, that case becomes even stronger. However, in winning MVP the last two seasons LeBron has also set a well-defined precedent for himself. If his numbers or the Heat's regular season record drop at all compared to what they did last year it would definitely give voters a reasonable out to hand the award to someone else.

Of course that scenario would require someone else making a compelling case for themselves, through individual excellence, team success and a powerful narrative. Durant redefining offensive efficiency and carrying the Thunder through a difficult start to the season without Russell Westbrook or Rose buoying the Bulls offense and pushing them to the top of the East would both seem to fit the bill. But this is still James' award to lose.

Adi Joseph, USA TODAY Sports:This award seems like James' to lose again, but keep in mind that while James is in the middle of his prime at 28, Durant turned 25 a month ago and only now is entering his. Durant also will have to carry his Thunder early this season with Westbrook out. That could lead to big numbers or the struggles of over-compensating.

Joel Brigham, HOOPSWORLD:The only way that James doesn't win his fifth MVP trophy in six years is if he hurts himself or if the voters get bored giving it to the same guy every year. Statistically, though, James is the best bet, having led the league in player efficiency rating (PER) in each of the last six seasons and win shares in each of the last five. His 31.59 PER last year was just barely the second-best of his career and one of the best single-season PER performances in NBA history. He's arguably the best and most versatile defender in the league; he is physically unstoppable, and he plays for a team that could make the Finals for a fourth consecutive year and potentially win for a third consecutive year. However, some voters may feel about him personally, he is the greatest basketball player alive, so if he does what he usually does, there's no reason to give the MVP award to anyone else.

2. COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Jeff Zillgitt: Easy one: Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose. After missing the entire 2012-13 season recovering from a torn ACL sustained in the 2011-2012 playoffs, Rose is back. Everyone, even opponents, are thrilled for Rose, and based on his preseason performance, he looks like the player he was before the injury — possibly even better with his improved jump shot.

Ian Levy:There are several players who missed all, or nearly all, of last season due to injury, creating a lot of possibilities. Rose and Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kevin Love both look healthy and prepared to lay waste to large swaths of the respective conferences. But I think the most likely candidate is Channing Frye.

Frye sat out all of last season after doctors discovered he had an enlarged heart. He is not the dynamic star that Rose or Love are, but his story has the gravity and emotion of actual life and death attached to it. His health concerns are bigger than basketball, more important than wins and losses. Even if he struggles with effectiveness and his Suns struggle for competitiveness, just being on the court is a victory for Frye.

Adi Joseph:Rose will make this award uninteresting this season because he's so good and returning from an entire season away. His only real competition will be from Minnesota Timberwolves power forward Kevin Love, who played 18 games last year because of several injuries. But let's not short-change other candidates. I'm excited to see Frye return. And Indiana Pacers forward Danny Granger only played five games last season because of knee issues, but now he has calf issues.

Joel Brigham: After not having played basketball for 18 months, Rose stepped on the hardwood this preseason determined to prove that he's still one of the most dominant players in the game. For much of the preseason he was averaging nearly a point scored per minute of playing time, though his 145 points in 192 minutes to end the preseason is still ridiculously impressive. He also shot nearly 9.5 free throws per game in the preseason despite playing only 27.4 minutes, showing that his aggression and willingness to attack the rim absolutely is still intact. He's added five inches to his vertical, ten pounds of muscle, and even more explosiveness. If that's not a comeback, what is?

3. MOST IMPROVED PLAYER

Jeff Zillgitt: This is always difficult. Did the player post better number in a season because he is receiving more playing time or he is simply a better player than he was a year ago even with more minutes? Phoenix Suns guard Eric Bledsoe and Detroit Pistons big man Andre Drummond are two players who have proven they can play but haven't always received the minutes. But it's clear they came back better players this season. It could also be Golden State Warriors forward Harrison Barnes. But my pick is New Orleans Hornets forward Anthony Davis, whose improvement in the pick-and-roll offense and defense in the paint will be noticeably better as he develops into one of the best big men in the league.

Ian Levy: For me, the choice is either Utah Jazz big man, Derrick Favors or Enes Kanter. Both had their minutes depressed the last two seasons, playing behind Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. With Jefferson and Millsap now playing for different teams both Favors and Kanter now have the opportunity to step forward into bigger roles, offensively and defensively. Although Favors stagnated a little last season he has the potential to be a dominant defensive force on the back line. Kanter has struggled with turnovers and scoring consistently against athletic defenders, but he's growing into a dangerous post threat and a capable pick-and-pop big man. Each player's improvement is intertwined with the growth of the other but this is the year I think they make the leap together, and one should end up getting the recognition of this award.

Adi Joseph: This is one of the toughest awards to project. The closest thing to any trend is that it often goes to a third-year player. Second-year players seem too obvious, I suppose. So let's quickly go over few candidates from the 2011 NBA draft. Brandon Knight has a new home with the Milwaukee Bucks and will be asked to handle more scoring. T'wolves forward Derrick Williams hasn't lived up to his No. 2 selection but has shown flashes. Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard showed what he can do during the playoffs but hasn't put together a great regular season. And one of the favorites has to be Jimmy Butler, who emerged last season as a potent defensive stopper and solid shooter for the Bulls.

Joel Brigham : Bradley Beal and Anthony Davis both look like All-Stars just waiting to happen, but that sort of second-year improvement from a couple of former top-three overall draft selections isn't a huge surprise. What Bledsoe is about to do in Phoenix, however, could take him from backup to one of the league's most promising young point guards. His per-minute production with the Los Angeles Clippers last year were stellar, and he'll be given the opportunity with the hapless Suns this year to explore his talent fully. He could very well end the season averaging 16-18 points, 4-6 assist, and 4-6 rebounds per game, with a couple of steals and a block thrown in for good defensive measure. The opportunity for him to shine is there, and opportunity plus talent typically results in breakout stars. That should be Bledsoe this coming season.