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Ranking the 5 teams who lost 2018 1st-round QBs by how well they’ve reloaded

A couple appear to be in good hands, a couple likely have solid solutions, and one still has major questions.

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The 2018 QB draft class was one of the bigger and more controversial in recent years. It included two Heisman winners, a pair of LA rivals, and a wildly polarizing prospect who perfectly encapsulated the classic “raw talent vs. production” debate.

The NFL ended up sorting out the five in this order:

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

3. Sam Darnold, USC

7. Josh Allen, Wyoming

10. Josh Rosen, UCLA

32. Lamar Jackson, Louisville

Everyone but Mayfield left with eligibility remaining, leading to a big 2018 season for these five programs that had built their offenses around the abilities of their NFL-approved field generals.

At the midseason point of 2018, here’s how they’ve fared in terms of replacing their stars both for year one and beyond.

1. Oklahoma

The Sooners already had a solution in place. Of course, now Kyler Murray has a contract with the Oakland Athletics to play baseball after the season, but for now they seem to be in good shape.

So far Murray is second in the country in passer rating with a lofty 227.76. He’s added 434 rushing yards at 8.7 per carry (after removing sack yardage).

With Murray, the Sooners have a pretty different identity from 2017. Last year’s team was built from the inside out with multi-positional FB/TE Dmitri Flowers, flex TE Mark Andrews, and Mayfield’s command of Lincoln Riley’s offense. The Murray team is less likely to take a team apart with precision, but also more explosive.

If Murray tested at the next NFL Combine, he’d probably run in the 4.4 range, and so would/will receiver Marquise Brown, now OU’s featured weapon. Murray has proved excellent at hitting Brown when Riley dials up an opportunity for him to run deep.

Then there’s the speed Murray has to freeze pass-rushers in fear, on plays like the one above or in OU’s dreaded GT counter run plays:

The Sooner OL actually botches this — both tackles pull and bump into each other — but Murray finds a lane and is gone in a puff of smoke all the same.

And beyond 2018?

Murray is (almost definitely) going to leave after this season to pursue baseball. The Sooners have Austin Kendall, who will be a fourth-year veteran of Riley’s coaching, and former four-star Tanner Mordecai. But the Sooners are also poised to add five-star phenom Spencer Rattler in 2019, who might be the solution. An additional year of Murray would have given the Sooners an amazing run of QBs, but they have to rebuild to a degree.

2. USC

The Trojans seemed likely to bring Darnold back for one more year, until a strong finish to 2017 pulled him out. Clay Helton had a few other former blue chip young guys on the roster but the job went to five-star freshman J.T. Daniels.

Daniels currently ranks 84th in passer rating. He’s not added any rushing threat, although the Trojans have started to give him more RPO options.

USC’s freshman must continue to grow up in a hurry as the Trojans strive to dominate a thoroughly winnable Pac-12 South, which might also be necessary to keep the head coach.

That said, the USC run game has started to get going and ease the pressure off Daniels. The ceiling for this offense down the stretch is rather high, considering that Daniels is a freshman, top target Amon-Ra St. Brown is a freshman, and left tackle Austin Jackson is a sophomore.

And beyond 2018?

The future is very bright. Daniels to St. Brown is as promising a connection as there is, and the Trojans are going to have it for at least two more full seasons. When a QB and WR are in perfect sync with timing they tend to dominate, and the two potential NFL talents have been playing together since high school at Mater Dei.

Here’s Daniels connecting with St. Brown on another RPO fade:

The timing and accuracy here, as well as the trust between the two of them, is going to make for a devastating combo.

3. UCLA

Chip Kelly surprised a lot of people when one of his first moves as the HC at UCLA was to secure Michigan grad transfer QB Wilton Speight. Kelly evolved some in the NFL, embracing the passing game more and putting less emphasis on the QB run option, but Speight is less mobile than any of the QBs that defined Kelly’s Oregon offenses. As it happened, Speight was injured anyway and the Bruins have rolled with true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

The Vegas signal caller has completed 85 of 148 attempts at 6.3 yper attempt with five TD passes and three INTs. He’s added a little bit on the ground, mostly negated by all the sacks he’s taken (six in the loss to Oklahoma alone).

His footwork and arm strength from the pocket is quite good, as you can see by the way he fits this route up the seam against Washington’s secondary:

Almost more impressive is the fact that he led the Bruins within a score of the Huskies after getting down 24-7, often by taking check downs or moving through progressions to find the open receiver. DTR has some speed and running ability, but it looks like he’ll prove to be more of a pocket-oriented player than we saw at Oregon.

And beyond 2018?

Kelly will have plenty of time to figure out what his offense looks like with a pocket passer over the next few years. DTR has the athleticism to potentially unlock some of Kelly’s old spread-option tricks, but the Bruins will probably aim to make the most of his passing acumen.

4. Wyoming

Coach Craig Bohl seems to have a knack for finding big, powerful passers with plus athleticism whom no one else knows about. He brought Carson Wentz to North Dakota State, then Allen to Wyoming, and now RS freshman Tyler Vander Waal in Allen’s stead.

So far, TVW has completed 83 of 152 passes at 5.9 per throw with three TDs and two INTs. He’s been involved in the run game, but 18 sacks have led to his rushing numbers being a net negative.

Allen’s final season at Wyoming was essentially him carrying a turned-over roster while under intense national scrutiny. Vander Waal is mostly being asked to play game manager while an OL that added three RS freshman starters is blowing open holes for senior RB Nico Evans (612 rushing yards at 7.8 ypc). He’ll throw on third down and occasionally take shots on play action ...

... but hasn’t been very explosive yet, and even the placement on this ball was less than ideal despite the result.

And beyond 2018?

Vander Waal seems capable, but if Wyoming’s A gap and stretch run game continues to take off, he’ll have some support that Allen lacked in 2017. A fully formed Bohl offensive line isn’t something that Wyoming has had, so the possibilities are relatively unexplored. They’ll have at least two more years with Vander Waal and most of this OL.

5. Louisville

The Cardinals faced perhaps the toughest challenge, replacing a player who produced 7,203 passing yards, 3,655 rushing yards, and 96 total touchdowns in the last two seasons. He made the entire offense go with his ability to hit receivers down the field and operate the power/zone-read run game.

Replacement Jawon Pass is a strong talent. The redshirt sophomore was a four-star who’d been biding his time behind the Heisman winner. So far he’s completed 85 of 155 passes for 1,059 yards at 6.8 per attempt with six TDs and seven INTs. Pass tends to do exactly that and isn’t anywhere close to Jackson in the option run game, which has now largely been shelved.

Pass has had a tough go of things for two main reasons. The first is that the run game has struggled to create angles without the threat of the QB as a runner. The other is his own carelessness with the football, such as this INT that ruined what would have been a game-clinching drive and set up Florida State’s own game-winning possession:

Beyond 2018?

It’s not clear whether Jawon Pass will hold down the starting job or if redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham, who’s much closer to Jackson as a runner than is Pass, will take the job. Then there’s the uncertain future of head coach Bobby Petrino, which could make a considerable difference in what Louisville will attempt. There is raw talent, but it’s largely unrealized.

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