Buffalo Bulls vs. Kentucky Wildcats Odds, Analysis, March Madness Betting Pick
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Featured ColumnistMarch 16, 2018
Upstart Buffalo out of the MAC just upset one college basketball blue blood and takes aim at another when it battles Kentucky in an NCAA tournament round-of-32 game Saturday afternoon in Boise, Idaho.
Do the underdog Bulls have another surprise in them?
March Madness point spread: The Wildcats opened as six-point favorites; the total is at 158, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
March Madness betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 78.4-73.7, Bulls (March Madness picks on every game)
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Why Buffalo can cover the spread
The Bulls pulled Thursday's shocker of the day, beating No. 4 Arizona 89-68. Buffalo, as a nine-point underdog, hit a three-pointer just before the half to take a 40-38 lead into the locker room, then later used a 24-7 run to take total control, sending millions of brackets across the country flying toward the circular file.
On the night, the Bulls shot 54.8 percent from the field, made 15 of 30 shots from three-point land, turned the ball over just 10 times and outrebounded the much bigger Wildcats 32-31.
Buffalo has now, somewhat amazingly, shot at least 50 percent from the floor 11 times in its last 14 games. The Bulls have also held each of their seven opponents under 50 percent field-goal shooting and outrebounded seven of their last eight foes.
Buffalo is now 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS over its last seven games and 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog.
Why Kentucky can cover the spread
The Wildcats reached Saturday's play with a 78-73 defeat of Davidson on Thursday. Kentucky led by 13 late in the first half, allowed the other Wildcats to tie the score at 52 with nine minutes to go but got back out to an 11-point lead and held on for the win and the cover as a 4.5-point favorite.
On the evening, Kentucky shot 51 percent from the floor, held Davidson to just 39.3 percent FG shooting, hit 26 of 32 from the free-throw line and won the battle on the glass 34-26.
The Wildcats have now shot at least 50 percent from the field in five of their last seven times out and held each of their last 19 opponents under 50 percent shooting.
Kentucky is also 8-1 both SU and ATS over its last nine games and 11-7 ATS this season when favored by single digits.
Smart betting pick
Buffalo just played probably the greatest game in program history, but efforts like that are awfully hard to back up. And Kentucky will probably play a little better defense than Arizona did. Smart money here likes the Wildcats.
March Madness betting trends
The total has gone over in eight of Kentucky's last nine games.
Kentucky is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games.
Buffalo is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games in March.
All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.