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Drivers and trends in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire in forests of the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010)

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Abstract

Context

Resilience in fire-prone forests is strongly affected by landscape burn-severity patterns, in part by governing propagule availability around stand-replacing patches in which all or most vegetation is killed. However, little is known about drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, or whether such patterns are changing during an era of increased wildfire activity.

Objectives

(a) Identify key direct/indirect drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire (e.g., size, shape of patches), (b) test for temporal trends in these patterns, and (c) anticipate thresholds beyond which landscape patterns of burn severity may change fundamentally.

Methods

We applied structural equation modeling to satellite burn-severity maps of fires in the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010) to test for direct and indirect (via influence on fire size and proportion stand-replacing) effects of climate/weather, vegetation, and topography on landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire. We also tested for temporal trends in landscape patterns.

Results

Landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire were strongly controlled by fire size and proportion stand-replacing, which were, in turn, controlled by climate/weather and vegetation/topography, respectively. From 1984 to 2010, the proportion of stand-replacing fire within burn perimeters increased from 0.22 to 0.27. Trends for other landscape metrics were not significant, but may respond to further increases proportion stand-replacing fire.

Conclusions

Fires from 1984 to 2010 exhibited tremendous heterogeneity in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, likely promoting resilience in burned areas. If trends continue on the current trajectory, however, fires may produce larger and simpler shaped patches of stand-replacing fire with more burned area far from seed sources.

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Acknowledgments

We thank W. Romme for stimulating discussions leading to the conception of this study. L. Westerling and J. Milostan provided invaluable assistance with climate data. B. Weiland, T. Butusov. C. Lane, N. LaBonte, S. Armstrong, A. Meiritz, Z. Osterholz, D. Guerrero-Harvey, C. Harvey, M. Harvey helped with fieldwork. S. Kochaver, K. Burkhard, S. Winter, K. Budke, S. Rosenberg, A. Singh and P. Townsend helped with data processing and models of RdNBR versus fire severity. J. Miller provided assistance with statistical analysis. E. Damschen, P. Townsend, K. Raffa, J. Williams, and three anonymous reviewers provided valuable feedback on earlier drafts of this manuscript. This study was funded by a Graduate Research Innovation Award from the US Joint Fire Science Program (Award # 12-3-01-3) and the US National Park Service—George Melendez Wright Climate Change Fellowship.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Colorado – Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA

    Brian J. Harvey

  2. Washington State Department of Natural Resources, 1111 Washington Street SE, Olympia, WA, 98504, USA

    Daniel C. Donato

  3. Department of Zoology, 432 Birge Hall, University of Wisconsin – Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA

    Monica G. Turner

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  1. Brian J. Harvey
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Correspondence to Brian J. Harvey.

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Harvey, B.J., Donato, D.C. & Turner, M.G. Drivers and trends in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire in forests of the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010). Landscape Ecol 31, 2367–2383 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0408-4

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