The election calendar said June, but what happened Tuesday was the first volley in the battle of November.
California Democrats appeared to avoid a nightmare scenario in Tuesday’s “jungle” format, while Republicans earned some key victories that will set up a contentious election Nov. 6. As it turns out, Democrats and Republicans, in most cases, were able to survive the jungle (meaning the top two finishers in each race advance, no matter the party affiliation).
Across the state, hundreds of thousands of votes are still left to be counted.
At a glance: Full state and Orange County election results
The fear among Democrats was that a glut of enthusiastically blue candidates would split the vote in some key races, allowing Republicans to run unopposed in November.
But that didn’t happen across California. Blue will battle red in November.
In the governor’s race, Democrat Gavin Newsom will face Republican John Cox. In the attorney general’s race, Democrat Xavier Becerra will face Republican Steven Bailey. In each of the state’s seven congressional districts Democrats have targeted to flip, both parties will have a candidate in November.
The blue wave?
It’s still viable. Democrats piled up a lot of votes, especially among female and Latino candidates. But there are also several glimmers of hope for Republicans. Cox received a ringing endorsement from President Donald Trump and could lure more Republicans to the polls in November. Democrat Josh Newman, of Fullerton, appears to be heading for defeat after he was recalled by voters upset over his support of a gas tax hike.
Trump tweeted: “Great night for Republicans! Congratulations to John Cox on a really big number in California. He can win. Even Fake News CNN said the Trump impact was really big, much bigger than they ever thought possible. So much for the big Blue Wave, it may be a big Red Wave. Working hard!”
Not letting an opportunity pass by, Newsom tweeted: “Please come campaign for him as much as possible.”
Cox’s presence in the final two is significant for the GOP, especially since the other major statewide race – for the U.S. Senate – will feature two Democrats in incumbent Dianne Feinstein and Kevin de León of Los Angeles. The lack of a Republican in either race could have hurt the party’s turnout in the general election.
California Republican Party chairman Jim Brulte said Tuesday’s election sets up an “anything-can-happen” scenario in November.
“Sure, there could be a blue wave,” Brulte said. “But there could be a red wave, too. I will say this, the likelihood there is a blue wave has significantly diminished.”
Brulte sees hope in the recall of Newman.
“Voters liked Newman,” Brulte said. “But this was issue-driven. And it wasn’t close. Every Democrat (including Newman) voted for the gas tax. Newsom endorsed it.”
Brulte said that gas tax vote will be a focus for Republicans in November.
Rep. Ted Lieu, vice chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, was not buying the idea of a red wave.
As a Vice Chair of the @DCCC, I am ecstatic that California Democrats advanced a Dem in every single targeted California House district! And in those targeted districts, our Democratic nominees match up extremely well against the GOP nominees.
Onwards to November!
— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) June 6, 2018
“I am ecstatic that California Democrats advanced a Dem in every single targeted California House district!” Lieu tweeted. “And in those targeted districts, our Democratic nominees match up extremely well against the GOP nominees.”
Congressional Democratic candidates live to fight another day
In their effort to retake the House of Representatives, national Democrats have since November 2016 been targeting to flip seven California GOP-held congressional districts where Hillary Clinton outperformed Trump in the 2016 election. Their hope to take all seven seats remains alive after Tuesday’s primary, with Democrats advancing to November’s election in each of those districts.
That result was far from guaranteed in three Orange County seats, where prominent Republicans facing a slew of fresh-faced Democrats in large fields threatened to allow two GOP candidates to advance to a November runoff – a feasible outcome under the state’s nonpartisan top-two primary system.
National Democrats spent $5.6 million attempting to push their party’s candidates through to the fall election, attacking second-place Republicans to consolidate GOP votes around a single frontrunner, endorsing local Democrats (to the annoyance of the state party) and even supporting a third-place Republican with radio ads and robocalls. The complex strategy seems to have paid off.
“It is clear that Democrats are in a stronger position than ever to take back the House, and winning districts in California will be central to that path,” said Tyler Law, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the top outside spender in the races.
Despite national Democrats’ outward confidence, Republican candidates were the top vote-getters in each of the seven contests, often by a sizable margin.
L.A. is blue heaven
As they have for most of the past two decades, Democrats could look to Los Angeles County for reassurance.
With Republican incumbents on the ballot Tuesday in only four of 42 districts that are all or mostly in L.A. County, there wasn’t much chance for Democrats to pick up ground. But Democrats didn’t lose ground, finishing first in primary voting in every U.S. House and state legislative district where the math said they should.
In L.A. County’s only GOP-held congressional district, Katie Hill, a 30-year-old nonprofit executive, beat out fellow Democrat Bryan Caforio, an attorney making his second bid for the office, to earn the second spot on the November ballot against Rep. Steve Knight, R-Santa Clarita. Knight finished with 52.8 percent of the vote, but Hill remained optimistic of flipping the district, which went for Clinton in 2016 and has more Democratic than Republican registered voters.
Hill said Wednesday she can be the face of the increased influence of women and young people, and added: “We represented something that’s a groundswell of energy that’s occurring across the country.”
GOP in the I.E.
Several results were encouraging for Inland Empire Republicans seeking to keep a once-red region from turning full blue.
In the 60th Assembly District, GOP challenger Bill Essayli finished ahead of Assemblywoman Sabrina Cervantes, D-Riverside, in a two-candidate race. Essayli has centered his campaign around Cervantes’ key vote for a transportation funding bill that raised California’s gas tax – not a small detail in a district full of commuters.
In San Bernardino County, Republican and San Bernardino Councilman Henry Nickel placed first in the 40th Assembly District primary, ahead of well-funded Democrat James Ramos. A county supervisor, Ramos has been considered the favorite for the open seat.
In another surprise, Republican Sean Flynn got more votes than Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Redlands, in the 31st Congressional District. The San Bernardino County district had been considered a safe Democratic seat.
