Usually, congressional elections are all about who is throwing their hat into the ring.
But not in 2018. So far, the big story has been all about who is throwing in the towel.
According to a Roll Call tally, seven House Republicans have decided to step down voluntarily from their jobs, and an additional 10 have decided to run for another office rather than try to keep their seat in Congress. Most notably, local political experts say these retirements represent a troubling trend that has thinned the ranks of moderates within the GOP.
And that trend hit close to home last month when U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent announced he will walk away.
The seven-term Lehigh Valley lawmaker, who represents parts of Berks County, stunned his colleagues and constituents with the revelation. An outspoken figure who has spent much of his political career balancing his membership in the GOP with his centrist reputation, Dent gained national prominence for his role within what he has described as the “governing” wing of the party.
Political scientists Chris Borick of Muhlenberg College in Allentown and G. Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster agree that a potent combination of congressional redistricting, growing political polarization and increasing tension from President Donald Trump to fall in line with the majority has contributed to a shrinking corps of consensus builders.
No place to call home
Borick said that although these representatives may be good fits for their districts, they may not be good fits for the base within their districts. And that can cause real headaches when it comes to the primary race.
“With someone like Charlie Dent, who is almost a guarantee to win re-election in his own district, he would find a primary much more arduous and challenging in the sense that those elections are about who is more ideologically driven,” he said. “That puts a lot of strain on moderates to move to the right to get the votes they need to win. It becomes a race toward the end of the spectrum.”
Madonna pointed out that research shows the number of swing districts has dwindled from 164 in 1996 to 72 in 2016 – a 56 percent decline over two decades. He said Democratic and Republican districts will continue to grow farther apart as there are fewer and fewer where the outcome of the November election is in question.
“The truth is that if you are a moderate, you are without a home,” he said.
And that polarization, Madonna said, means public service is becoming far less rewarding for centrists than it was in the past for two main reasons: their ability to influence policy outcomes has diminished, and their chances of obtaining leadership positions has become increasingly difficult.
Borick said lack of productivity is creating low job satisfaction.
“Congress is incredibly dysfunctional right now,” he said. “The really bitter partisanship of politics is pushing some of these folks out of the game. An ideologue might be happy with just the fight. A pragmatist may need results to keep them happy.”
Pressure from the top
The pointed criticism from the president is not helping matters, Borick said.
The threat of primary opponents fueled by former White House adviser Steve Bannon has some moderates worried that speaking out against a proposal championed by Trump could land them in hot water come election time.
“You have a president who is interested in politics but not all that immersed in governing, which creates frustration for those members who look at issues in a more pragmatic way,” he said. “Instead of doing the grunt work on policy, they are being asked to comment on the latest drama that comes out of the White House.”
Dent found himself in that situation after he told the president he would not vote for the GOP bill to replace the Affordable Care Act. It was widely reported that during that meeting Trump angrily informed Dent that he was “destroying the Republican Party.”
So, Madonna said, it may not be all that surprising that Dent announced his retirement days after conservative Republican state Rep. Justin Simmons launched a primary challenge to unseat the incumbent at a rally outside his Allentown office.
“But the important thing to remember is that Trump isn’t necessarily a conservative – he’s a populist,” he said. “The issue now is that he needs a legislative victory to help support his populist agenda. And he’s willing to go after those who don’t stick with him.”
