WeatherTiger: Biggest winter event since 2014 ice storm may be taking shape
10:30 a.m. update on North Florida winter storm threat:
The ice cold hot take as of Tuesday morning: It is now more likely than not that a disruptive winter storm will arrive in North Florida early Wednesday morning. This will be the first significant snow and ice in the Panhandle since January 2014, when Tallahassee picked up about 0.1" of sleet and I-10 froze solid from Monticello to Pensacola.
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The mid-latitude disturbance that will trigger the storm, currently over Kansas, has been tracking a little stronger and further west than models were suggesting yesterday. As expected, global models (Euro and GFS) are shifting in the direction of NAM/RGEM (north and west) with the development of the surface low overnight tonight off the Florida east coast. For North Florida, a stronger, further west low center means more wintry mix further west.
This shift is potentially a big deal for Tallahassee, which is on the western edge of the accumulating snow or ice.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from Jefferson County east, and a Winter Storm Watch for Levy County north to Lake City. While this region east of Tallahassee continues to be the most likely area for accumulations of freezing rain or sleet up to 0.25 inches, only a slight further shift westward would result in the area of heavier wintry mix including Leon County.
This is well within the margin of error for mixed precipitation events, which are notoriously hard to forecast, and is supported by much of the mesoscale guidance this morning. These models did well with the December snowstorm in the Deep South, and in meteorology, the trend is often your friend.
In summary, sleet pellets changing to snow flurries in Tallahassee between 3-11 a.m. tomorrow are now likely. We may see just a few stray pings and flakes; alternately, Tallahassee could edge into the region of 0.1 inch or more of sleet or freezing rain, which would be a high-impact event in North Florida and necessitate staying off the roads.
So, will this storm be a mere meteorological curiosity, or a true S'Nolepocalypse? I'll be carefully tracking the incoming storm over the course of the day and will keep you posted.
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