TEXAS — With Memorial Day on the horizon and more people getting vaccinated, AAA’s holiday travel forecast predicts Texans will once again look to get away for the holidays.

While the number of folks hitting the road still doesn’t match pre-pandemic levels, AAA’s data on hotel and flight bookings shows people are starting to climb out of 2020’s forced hibernation.

What You Need To Know

  • Nearly 3 million Texans will travel on Memorial Day

  • Most Texans, 2.8 million, will travel by car

  • Gas prices and traffic will likely spike during the holiday weekend

  • The travel surge is still expected to be 14% less than pre-COVID numbers

The report, published on Tuesday, suggests that from May 27 to May 31, more than 37 million people across the U.S. are expected to travel 50 miles or more from home, an increase of around 60% from last year when only 23 million traveled — the lowest on record since AAA began recording in 2000. In Texas, nearly 3 million people total are expected to travel, with around 2.8 million of them driving.

The expected surge in demand from last year’s holiday still represents 13% — or nearly six million — fewer travelers than in 2019 on a national scale. In Texas, the difference from 2019 is about 14% fewer. AAA urges those who choose to travel this year to exercise caution and take measures to protect themselves and others as the pandemic still smolders along.

“Many Texans are excited to travel this Memorial Day holiday as more people get the COVID-19 vaccine and consumer confidence grows,” said Kent Livesay, vice president and general manager of AAA Texas in a press release. “This is in large part a result of pent-up demand that will lead to a significant increase in Memorial Day travel, which is also a strong indicator for summer, though it is important to remember to continue taking important safety precautions.”

Adding to the excitement of would-be travelers is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) recently updated guidance that fully vaccinated people can travel domestically at low risk to themselves, while taking proper precautions. Some local and state travel restrictions may still remain in place, however.

For travelers who are not vaccinated, the CDC recommends that you practice social distancing, wear a mask, wash your hands and get tested before and after your trip. Whether you are vaccinated or not, masks are still required on planes, buses, trains and other forms of public transportation.

Gas prices and traffic will likely spike

AAA Travel has recently reported a sharp increase in online traffic and bookings on AAA.com — particularly for hotels and car rentals — on the verge of the summer travel season. AAA booking data shows domestic travel and road trips remain the biggest drivers of travel recovery in the near term.

For the 34 million Americans expected to travel by car this Memorial Day, they can expect gas prices to be the most expensive since 2014 with the national average possibly more expensive than $3 a gallon.

“We don’t expect higher gas prices to deter motorists this holiday season as many Texans are eager to travel,” said Daniel Armbruster, AAA Texas spokesperson.  “We typically find when pump prices increase, travelers look for more free activities or eat out less while on vacation, but still take their planned trips.”

Gas prices will be increasing in part due to higher demand. As demand increases, gas stations are working to adjust delivery schedules to keep pace. However, there have been instances where some stations are seeing low to no supply at pumps for a few days due to delayed deliveries. Over the holiday weekend, some gas stations in popular travel destinations may experience this situation. 

The average cost in Texas is now $2.59 for a gallon of regular unleaded fuel, according to the AAA Texas Weekend Gas Watch. That price is two cents more than on this day last week and is $1.05 more per gallon compared to this day last year, the nonprofit organization noted.

Average Gas Price by Market (via averages from gasbuddy.com):

  • Amarillo: $2.50
  • Austin: $2.28
  • Beaumont: $2.48
  • Dallas: $2.44
  • El Paso: $2.68
  • Fort Worth: $2.58
  • Houston: $2.27
  • Kilgore: $2.82
  • San Antonio: $2.31
  • Waco: $2.48

Location-based analytics company INRIX predicts drivers will encounter the longest travel delays before the holiday weekend, particularly during the afternoons on Thursday, May 27 and Friday, May 28. Drivers in several major U.S. cities could experience double the travel times compared to a normal trip, while Houston drivers could see more than three times the delay on the busiest corridors.

“Although vehicle trips are down as much as 40% in some metros, afternoon congestion is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels. With the increase of holiday travelers to the typical afternoon commute, drivers in the larger metros should expect longer delays heading into the holiday weekend,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst for INRIX, in a press release. “Travelers should anticipate delays to start on Wednesday and continue through Memorial Day. Our advice to drivers is to avoid the evening commute times and plan alternate routes.”