President Trump stated today that he has no intention of leaving office, confirming that the nation is entering a constitutional crisis.
Mr. Trump lost his re-election bid as Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, won 323 electoral votes. But Trump has challenged the result of the election, alleging fraud.
The fraud claim rests on two assertions: that millions of undocumented immigrants voted in the November election and that the Russian government intervened, this time on behalf of the Democratic ticket, Biden and Harris.
Each of the twelve states in which the results were challenged investigated the allegations, as did Trump’s own FBI, and they were found without merit in each. The final state, Florida, confirmed their election results on December 19th.
The current crisis is a culmination of an administration that has been in turmoil from its inception.
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The issue was recently taken up by the Supreme Court and was rejected by a 5-4 vote. The majority confirmed that the states are responsible for validating election results and had done so properly. A dissent was written by the Trump appointee Brett Kavanaugh and was joined by Neil Gorsuch, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito.
Chief Justice John Roberts, the swing vote in the case, stated that the decision was final and he plans to swear in Mr. Biden on January 20th as scheduled.
The current crisis is a culmination of an administration that has been in turmoil from its inception. Trump became just the third US president to be impeached by the House of Representatives in 2019. Nine articles of impeachment were presented, primary among them, campaign finance violations, conspiracy, tax evasion, and obstruction of justice.
Despite the evidence presented by Special Counsel Robert Mueller and his team, Mr. Trump’s approval rating during the height of the impeachment trial only dipped to 36 percent, about where it stands now. Many of his supporters did not believe the evidence presented, a conclusion aided by the fact that some of that evidence remains classified, and portions of the report were withheld from both congress and the public by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. The Senate failed to convict him on a 52-47 vote, with just three Republicans voting for removal from office.
The swearing in itself may be difficult as the city has become paralyzed.
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The situation has become precarious in the days since the court ruling as Trump has made it clear that he has no intention of leaving the White House. Some staff have departed and have described the scene as paranoid and chaotic. There is some question of whether the military will intervene and if so, on which side. A statement by the chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appointed by Trump, reiterated their call for a negotiated political solution to the crisis, calling military intervention “a last resort.”
Mr. Trump, for his part, has threatened to replace members of the Joint Chiefs, a move that would require Senate confirmation, which seems unlikely at this point. There are some reports of disagreement among the group, but the Joint Chiefs chair dismissed those as unsubstantiated.
Another question is whether the Secret Service will step in and require Trump to leave the White House or if they would bar Mr. Biden from entering the building, as he has stated he plans to do once he is sworn in. There is currently no word from the head of that department.
The swearing in itself may be difficult as the city has become paralyzed. Hundreds of thousands of protesters have swarmed the capital since the court decision and clashes between Trump and Biden supporters have become commonplace. The Metropolitan Police Department has been overwhelmed and Capitol Police have fallen back to Capitol Hill as members of congress from both parties report death threats.
Stocks tanked as the crisis progressed, but were up slightly today at the news of negotiations for a political solution.
That solution however, seems difficult to come by. One proposal for Trump to leave office with a promise that the vacant Senate seat in California be filled by a Republican of Mr. Trump’s choosing was rejected by both Trump and California governor Gavin Newsom.
Another proposal had Trump remaining in office with Mr. Biden serving as his vice president. This was rejected by all parties and legal scholars have stated that it is unconstitutional unless supported by members of the electoral college.
Former House Speaker Paul Ryan attempted to negotiate a scenario in which Mr. Trump leaves office with a privately financed financial settlement and promises of significant cuts to both social security and Medicare. Mr. Trump rejected the idea via Twitter after initially expressing some interest. Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris, who campaigned on Medicare expansion, both called it a nonstarter.
This story is ongoing; check back for updates.
—A version of this piece ran in the Porterville Recorder on September 12th, 2018.
Photo by roya ann miller on Unsplash