The state Republican Party’s controversial decision to cancel its presidential straw poll in Colorado is upending the political calculus for the 2016 caucus.
With no vote to name a favorite, the candidates mostly skipped the state, relegating it to a flyover for other Super Tuesday contests.
Instead, the contest for the state’s Republican endorsement is taking place behind the scenes, where volunteers for the candidates are touting neighborhood-level endorsements and emphasizing one-on-one courtship to win commitments from potential delegates.
“The process is an unorthodox one, but that doesn’t diminish the importance — there are delegates on the line,” said Josh Penry, a veteran Republican operative who is leading Marco Rubio’s effort in Colorado. “Turning folks out to precinct caucuses is a gauntlet from start to finish.”
Republicans will gather at 2,995 locations for precinct meetings 7 p.m. Tuesday to elect delegates to the county assembly and state convention, the first step toward naming the people who will select the party’s next president at the national level.
The state GOP executive committee abolished the presidential straw poll after the national Republican Party required a binding vote. Colorado party leaders wanted to remain uncommitted to a candidate, particularly because they worried that person may not remain in the race by the July convention in Cleveland.
The state moved from the primary system to party caucuses in 2002, but the straw poll vote offered little more than a hit of adrenaline to the winning campaign because it did not necessarily allocate delegates to the top candidate.
Democrats will hold a straw poll this year, although the vote will not bind the party’s delegates.
For party hardliners, who considered prior straw polls irrelevant, this year’s return to local politicking on the Republican side is refreshing. For establishment Republicans, the caucus process gives inordinate concern to the select few party activists that participate, while cutting thousands from the process.
Colorado GOP officials are expecting 20,000 to 60,000 people to attend this year, far fewer than the 70,000 at the 2008 caucus and the 1 million registered party members in the state.
Even with no straw poll, the presidential race is poised to serve as a litmus test for what delegates advance at the precinct meetings, making the caucuses a referendum on the mood on the party.
“This year people are so passionate about (Donald) Trump and (Ted) Cruz and Rubio and (John) Kasich and Dr. (Ben) Carson, so they are going to say, ‘I want my voice to be heard, and you will represent me,’ ” said state GOP Chairman Steve House.
The real campaign for Colorado’s delegates will take place at the congressional assembly and state party convention April 8-9, if it’s still a contested race. The presidential campaigns will do all they can to get their supporters into those slots — 19 are needed to claim a majority victory.
An early preview of the state’s direction will occur in mid-March when party members seeking national delegate status must mark a form asking whether they are committed to a candidate or unbound.
“Rather than having to spend a whole lot of dollars advertising, like you would in some other state, your ground game will determine whether you can get delegates in Colorado,” House said.
The presidential campaigns are taking note and leveraging their volunteer leaders in the state to win delegates at the caucuses.
Rubio and Cruz are the most organized in Colorado, although Trump is relying on his national popularity to give him a boost. Kasich and Carson also have dedicated supporters in the state, but both are struggling to rise to the top.
In the days since the South Carolina presidential primary and Jeb Bush’s exit, top supporters are moving to Rubio, including state Sen. Owen Hill, a former co-chairman for Rand Paul’s campaign, and former state Rep. B.J. Nikkel, who defected from Kasich to demonstrate that Republicans need to coalesce behind an alternative to Trump.
Like the other campaigns, Cruz has no paid staff in Colorado. Regina Thomson, the president of Colorado Tea Party Patriots, is serving as the Texas senator’s volunteer state coordinator.
“With unbound delegates, with no straw poll, … there’s really nothing for (the national campaign) to focus on at this point,” she said. But, she added, the “smart campaign is contacting known supporters and donors to either stand for election themselves or support other (Cruz backers) for delegates.”
Former state Rep. Spencer Swalm, a Republican from Centennial, is supporting Trump, although he acknowledged he was hesitant to make it public at first. “Now, I think he can do very well because I think he has the chance of pulling together both blue-collar Republicans and Democrats, and that would be a pretty powerful combination,” he said.
Still, Swalm isn’t surprised Trump and the other candidates did little in Colorado before the caucuses.
“They are not really focused on Colorado because we are not really committing delegations,” he said. “(The state) is part of Super Tuesday, so they have their hands full trying to keep track of everything else going on.”
John Frank: 303-954-2409, jfrank@denverpost.com or @ByJohnFrank
