D.C.-area forecast: Accumulating snow lurks to our south today; cold and dry tomorrow through midweek

For accumulating snow, you really need to drive about 40 to 60 miles south of Washington, where snow could continue until between 9 p.m. our so in our far southwest areas (southern Fauquier County) and midnight in our far southeast areas (St. Mary’s County).

The snow turns heavy once you get south of around Aquia Harbor along Interstate 95, and driving in this region is likely hazardous, with snow covered roads.

Here a few pictures of conditions to our south:

This will be the last update in this post. For additional forecast information, stay tuned for our PM Update, coming out between 4 and 5 p.m., on the Capital Weather Gang section front.

1:30 p.m. update: Areas along and south of a line from around northern Stafford County through southern Charles County are seeing snow, while areas to the north just have cloudy skies. The snow line may lift north some through late afternoon, potentially allowing flakes to fly in Prince William, southern Prince George’s and southern Fairfax counties. But it’s questionable if flakes make it as far north as the Beltway.

If you’re driving south through this evening, bear in mind conditions may start deteriorating by the time you reach places like Culpeper in north central Va., Aquia Harbor and Fredericksburg along Interstate 95, Dahlgren in Charles County, and Lexington Park in St. Mary’s County.

Here are some pictures from some of these areas where the snow is just getting going:

10 a.m. update: The leading edge of a solid shield of snow to our south has not quite made it to Fredericksburg. It should slowly approach D.C. during the afternoon, but we continue to expect the bulk of accumulating snow to remain south of the immediate metro area. In short, we are not making any changes to our forecast at this time--see detailed text and snow forecast map below--and we don’t foresee a “boom” scenario unfolding. But we will continue to watch and update during the day.

We think this model forecast below of how radar will evolve throughout the day is fairly accurate, with the exception that most all the precipitation should be in the form of snow, as opposed to the rain the model shows at the northern leading edge of the storm.

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT

3/10: Nothing gets my goat more than seeing central Virginia to North Carolina getting a major snowstorm, while we’re left cold and gray looking for flurries or perhaps a light accumulation.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Flurries or light snow possible, especially south. Highs: Mid-30s.

Tonight: Decreasing clouds. Lows: 20s to near 30.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs: Upper 30s to mid-40s.

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FORECAST IN DETAIL

A northward trend in the storm blanketing parts of southwest Virginia and western North Carolina with over a foot of snow today has brought our southern reaches into range of some relatively light accumulations. We could even see a coating here in the immediate metro area, although it could end up just being some conversational flurries. Once this storm scoots out to sea, high pressure takes over, leaving us with plenty of sun and plenty of chill through midweek.

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Today (Sunday): Accumulating snow comes oh-so-close but may not quite make it as far north as the Beltway, as dry air overhead keeps the bulk of the snow to our south. That said, we could see some occasional flurries or snow showers during the afternoon into evening, and perhaps even a coating mainly for areas south of the D.C. area, Interstate 66 and Route 50. A few inches could accumulate farther south into Southern Maryland and toward Fredericksburg, as seen on our snow forecast map below. Otherwise, it’s a cloudy and cold one with highs only in the mid-30s. Small shifts are still possible, so we’ll keep watch throughout the day. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tonight: Any flurries or light snow should exit to the south by 9 p.m. or so, with skies slowly trending clearer overnight. Even colder air is ushered in behind the storm as it accelerates out to sea, so temperatures should have no problem dropping into the 20s to near 30 for lows. Northerly winds come in at around 5 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Monday): The first of several repetitive days comes on Monday. The skies have cleared out and we’re looking at plenty of blue, but this massive high pressure brings in cold air reinforcements. Northerly winds continue at 5 to 10 mph, and temperatures struggle through the 30s toward afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Conditions stay cold and tranquil through the overnight hours. Skies remain mostly devoid of cloud cover and lows drop into the 20s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Not much change in the weather through midweek, as we expect more of the same Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure brings mostly sunny skies, relatively light winds and cool highs in the low to mid-40s. Tuesday and Wednesday night lows fall back to the mid-20s to near 30. Confidence: Medium-High

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX

A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

3/10 (↑): Still more likely than not we won’t get to an inch on Sunday in the immediate metro area, with the bulk of the snow staying south. But it’s not impossible to see a “boom” scenario.

Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast.