Saturday night, the Miami Heat defeated the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, securing their second straight trip to the NBA Finals. The end results weren't unexpected, even the NBA itself had begun pre-selling "Beat the Heat" t-shirts to fans of the Western Conference Champion Oklahoma City Thunder in preparation. What was unexpected was that an old and broken Celtics team had pushed the series to seven games. Maybe even more surprising was that when LeBron James and company finally put them away, instead of being weakened by the long fight, the brutal series seemed to have tested their resolve and made them even stronger. Despite this victory the question remained: were they a good enough team to beat Kevin Durant's Thunder team, a team that just who had just defeated a brilliant San Antonio Spurs team that was riding a 20 game win streak? If only the two teams could battle each other in some sort of "best of seven" series in order to settle this. Wait, what? The NBA has one of those? Well, let's look ahead at that then.
1. LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant
Make no mistake, when we're talking about the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder, we are talking about LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Commissioner David Stern is no doubt thrilled that these two players, arguably the two best players in the NBA, will be battling each other in prime time in his sport's marquee event. Expect the NBA to promote this Finals matchup more as a "James vs. Durant" heavyweight fight than as a competition between two teams, and it has every right to do so. In a star-driven league like this, the Finals may come down to which team's major star shines the brightest on the game's biggest stage.
To simplify things even further, when we're talking about LeBron James and Kevin Durant, we're actually only really talking about LeBron James. Ever since the Decision, Kevin Durant has been defined against LeBron, he's really been sold as the anti-James. Kevin Durant is not quite as talented as his de facto rival, but over his career he's come through more often in late-game pressure situations. If some players indeed are clutch, a debatable point, then Durant is clearly the most clutch player in the league today, and has made multiple game-winners in this postseason alone. These qualities, along with an understandable hatred of the whole King James Cultural Phenomena (copyright Nike), cause some people to rank Durant over James.
The Eastern Conference Finals, however, have drastically altered the narratives swirling around LeBron, there's only one Kevin Durant but there seems to be several LeBron Jameses now. Will we see the LeBron James of game six of the Conference Finals, who took over the game with the fierce intensity of a Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant, or maybe the LeBron James of game seven who finally proved to his critics that he could dial it up an extra notch in the fourth quarter of a big game? Or will the Incredible Shrinking James of the series' game five, as well as countless other previous big games, make an unexpected reappearance? It seems as though this series against the Celtics caused a noticeable sea change in James, but will the more talented Thunder team let this new James appear?
EDGE: MIAMI. This is no longer your Skip Bayless's LeBron.
2. The Other Starters
No player, no matter how great, is capable of winning a NBA Championship entirely on his own, although LeBron James's critics will try to convince you that the opposite is true. Just call it the "Even MJ needed Pippen" Rule. While the big guns will be getting the main attention, the series between the Thunder and Heat may be won or lost by the rest of the starting lineup. If "James vs. Durant" is the main fight in the NBA Finals, then the undercard most certainly will be "Wade vs. Westbrook".
Who would have guessed back in the beginning of the season, as trade rumors swirled around him, that Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook would enter the NBA Finals as a more dangerous player than Miami's Dwyane Wade. Whether it's injury or just ineffectiveness, Wade has played a miserable postseason, practically disappearing at times in the series against Boston. As his tangible contributions have decreased, the once likeable Wade seems to have taken a heel turn, flopping more often and getting a reputation for dirty fouls. Meanwhile, Westbrook, a player with a not-unearned reputation for selfish play, has settled comfortably as the number two option in the series. Westbrook has done no complaining when Durant's last-second shots detract attention from the fact that he's outperformed his more famous teammate at times. Heck, Russell Westbrook even has beat Dwyane Wade in the geek glasses category. Unless there's a drastic change, Westbrook will be more of a factor in this series than Wade.
If Heat power forward Chris Bosh were fully healthy, or even penciled into the starting lineup, there's no question that the rest of the Heat's starting lineup would be superior to the Thunder. Although Oklahoma City's shooting guard Thabo Sefolosha is making himself a household name, at least as much as Thabo Sefolosha could ever be a household name, Serge Ibaka and center Kendrick Perkins have so far not matched the contributions of Miami's Mario Chalmers and Shane Battier. Ibaka had a 11-for-11 shooting night in game four of the Western Conference Finals, but that seems fairly unrepeatable. However, the longer the Heat has to play Udonis Haslem, who leads the league in Broadcasters Mentioning That You Hate Him On Their Team But You'd Love Him If He Played On Your Team, the more that difference will even out.
EDGE: OKLAHOMA CITY. Assuming Chris Bosh isn't fully healthy.
3. The Bench
Okay, this preview has ridden the starters pretty hard, it's time to give them some rest and let the bench players take over. Don't look past the bench, in this era of specialization, these so-called role players can be difference makers. They're not all Brian Scalabrines. In fact, one of the key shifts in the Western Conference Finals occurred in game five when San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich moved Manu Ginobili from his role as Sixth Man into the starting rotation. Ginobili was more productive in the starting role, but the move disrupted the flow of the entire team, leading to some critics to speculate if Popovich was panicking.
For all intents and purposes, the Oklahoma City Thunder's bench is shooting guard James Harden, he of the Mighty Beard and 2012 Sixth Man of the Year fame. In fact, Harden is so central to the Thunder's chances that he might as well call himself "The Bench". Harden, honestly, could be Oklahoma City's third best player, and it just illustrates how important the bench is when a team finds one of their best players is more valuable out of the starting rotation. Harden has the potential to single-handedly win a game in these playoffs.
After Harden, however, the Thunder's bench gets pretty thin. Power forward Nick Collison is the bench's second biggest contributor, and although he's been helpful, he has yet to be quite as impactful as his cool, private detective-esque name suggests. Then there's the curious case of Designated Veteran Presence Derek Fisher, the long time Los Angeles Lakers point guard who was dealt away in the trading deadline, only to latch on with Oklahoma City and knock off his previous team. Certainly that's a few karma points in favor of the Thunder, if nothing else. Sheesh, no wonder Kevin Durant lobbies his coach to play complete games.
Unless the Miami Heat decided to start Udonis Haslem and use Chris Bosh off the bench, they don't have anyone approaching a James Harden. Mike Miller and James Jones are around mainly for their ability to drain three-point shots. Rookie point guard Norris Cole had some key moments early in the regular season but has been regulated to backup duty with Mario Chalmers's postseason success. Beyond them, center Dexter Pittman provides flagrant fouls off the bench while his fellow center Eddy Curry is on the team solely to give casual fans a mild surprise when they learn that Eddy Curry is still in the league.
EDGE: OKLAHOMA CITY. For one reason only: Fear the beard.
4. The coaches
Neither Finals team has a head coach of the caliber of a Phil Jackson or a Pat Riley, unless those rumors about Heat Coach Eric Spoelstra being operated by remote control are true, but their respective coaches outlasted some pretty great company. Oklahoma City's Scott Brooks outcoached Head Coach of the Year Gregg Popovich in the Western Conference Finals. Meanwhile, Spoelstra's Heat squad provided a sour ending to what may have been Doc Rivers' finest season as head coach of the Boston Celtics. In the NBA, of course, coaching doesn't matter as much as the players you have, but both of these guys have some pretty good players.
EDGE: OKLAHOMA CITY. I'm going with the guy whose job wasn't potentially on the line as recently as two games ago.
5. Contributing factors and also possibly non-contributing factors
HOME COURT ADVANTAGE
Note to Oklahoma City and Miami: The White Out idea is dumb. I have no idea why it's supposedly intimidating for the entire fanbase to wear the same colored shirts, but it's not. Yes, it looks kind of cool in high definition, but I don't see what exactly you're trying to accomplish here other than prove the fact that sports fans are lemmings and we already kind of knew that.
Oh, yeah, and in a factor that may actually affect the series, the Oklahoma City Thunder have an actual home court advantage throughout the seven game series. No, it was not based on the results of the NBA All-Star Game, Bud Selig.
EDGE: OKLAHOMA CITY. Because what if we have it backwards, what if the fans are the ones inspiring their team?
MUSIC CELEBRITY
Oklahoma City isn't known as a musical hotbed, but as we have pointed out before, they do have the hometown Flaming Lips to provide them with their postseason anthem this year. As much as some of us more indie rock types may prefer orchestrated psych-rock, there's no question that Miami has bigger celebrities, not to mention sound machines.
EDGE: MIAMI. The NBA Finals are a big stage and more people know Gloria Estefan than the Flaming Lips. Sorry Pitchfork Media readers.
TEAM NAMES
If I have to struggle with whether to write "the Miami Heat is" or "the Oklahoma City Thunder are" one more time I'm going to subject the parties responsible with these teams name with nonstop 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats footage. There are plenty of non-awkward plural nouns you guys could have picked.
EDGE: NOT APPLICABLE. Seriously, I hate the both of you so much.
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FINAL PREDICTION:
Oklahoma City Thunder OVER the Miami Heat in 6. LeBron James is at his peak, but if Dwyane Wade is still giving uneven performances and Chris Bosh isn't fully healthy, he's not going to be able to defeat this superior Oklahoma City Thunder by himself. It's going to be fun to watch him try though.
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