Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE:GRBK) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. Investors have been pretty optimistic on Green Brick Partners too, with the stock up 30% to US$48.08 over the past week. We'll be curious to see if these new estimates convince the market to lift the stock price higher still.

Following the latest upgrade, Green Brick Partners' four analysts currently expect revenues in 2023 to be US$1.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to fall 19% to US$5.16 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.34 in 2023. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

View our latest analysis for Green Brick Partners

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 49% to US$44.00 per share. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Green Brick Partners, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$48.00 and the most bearish at US$40.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Green Brick Partners is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.3% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 26% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Green Brick Partners' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates for this year, expecting improving business conditions. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given that the consensus looks almost universally bullish, with a substantial increase to forecasts and a higher price target, Green Brick Partners could be worth investigating further.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Green Brick Partners going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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