Estimated read time: 6-7 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark declared his conference "open for business" in July 2022.
It served as one of the quirky statements commissioners make during conference media days to rally the troops of the faithful that follow the conference and its teams. But what it really meant at the time was anyone's guess.
Few doubted Yorkmark's vision and his desire to add more teams to strengthen a Big 12 Conference that had learned it would lose Texas and Oklahoma. The conference had already added BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF for stability, but the conference wasn't done there.
Yorkmark set his sights on adding the so-called Four Corner schools to the fold to add even more depth to what he felt could be one of the best conferences in the country. It seemed preposterous for the four schools to even entertain the idea of leaving their home in the Pac-12, but Yormark and his campaign persisted.
And it worked.
On Friday, after a roller coaster and historic day filled with no shortage of drama, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah accepted a move to the Big 12, and joined Colorado, who a week before charted its own path back to the conference it help found in 1996.
Yormark, through an open public relations push to court the four Power Five teams, finally got his victory. His conference now has 16 members to start the 2024 season, and there's no longer competition from the Pac-12, which will likely cease to exist in the coming months or years, to stop it.
So what does that mean for Utah specifically? In short, stability for at least the next few years in a conference with a more valuable media rights deal than what the Pac-12 proposed.
Utah, as well as the three other Four Corner schools, enter the Big 12 next season as full members based on a pro rata clause in the conference's most recent media rights deal. That means each school is expected to earn a little more than $31 million each year before payouts from the NCAA for bowl games and the men's and women's basketball tournaments.
Based on various national reports, that number could be somewhere around $50 million per team, if not more. The most recent number from the Pac-12 was about $37 million for the 2022 fiscal year, so it's an increase in revenue.
Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah will make about the same as Oregon and Washington while in the Big 12.
— Josh Furlong (@JFurKSL) August 6, 2023
But the payout potentially comes in the next contract cycle for the Big Ten. https://t.co/1T5yuu2XrQ
But what about the change in competition for the Utes?
Though conference realignment is heavily influenced by football, it will have ramifications on all sports. But let's start with football.
Football
Utah has won back-to-back conference titles in the Pac-12 (and has been in four of the last five title games) and will likely be in contention, at least as of this writing, for a third straight season. Will that easily translate to the Big 12? It won't be the same as Utah jumping from the Mountain West to the Pac-12, but it's not going to be a cakewalk, either.
The Utes will compete against two teams — Cincinnati and TCU — who have made it to the College Football Playoff, to say nothing of Baylor and Oklahoma State, who have been consistently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 and College Football Playoff rankings each season. And there's Kansas State, who is the defending champs, and a surging Texas Tech team, among others.
Over the last five years, Utah narrowly ranks second only to TCU in recruiting among the future 16 members. Kyle Whittingham says recruiting is the lifeblood of the sport; and while it's not the only decider in wins and losses, it's a good spot to be in at the top of the conference. Utah has an advantage to put its program in contention for a Big 12 title from Day 1.
Basketball
This is where Utah men's basketball will significantly struggle to compete in the Big 12 if it can't raise its profile under head coach Craig Smith. The Utes have been slowly piecing together a team under Smith, but have maintained a middle-of-the-pack standing in a Pac-12 Conference that is inferior to what is considered the toughest men's basketball conference in the country.
Based on KenPom ratings from last season, the Big 12 will feature seven teams in the top 25 and three more inside the top 50. In fact, all 16 teams are inside the top 80 in KenPom, with Utah (75) and BYU (77) filling out the last two spots. The goal for the men's team will be to win a game in conference play.
On the women's side, based on Utah's recent success, there's a good chance the Utes can make a run for a conference title from Day 1. There will be pieces moving on after the 2023-24 season, but Lynne Roberts has recruited well to maintain Utah's status at the top. Based on last season's NET ratings, Utah would lead the conference, followed by Iowa State and Colorado inside the top 25.
Using NET, the women have seven teams inside the top 50, and all but BYU inside the top 75, though BYU has improved its roster and is expected to compete at a higher level than the previous season.
Gymnastics
Utah is the undisputed leader in this realm, and will likely be the odds on favorite to win a conference championship every single year. Gymnastics is a little different in how it competes against schools from around the country, but the Red Rocks remain a dominant force in the sport and remains the only program in the country to appear at Nationals every year since its inception.
Denver remains Utah's toughest competition, but Arizona and Arizona State have improved over the years. Outside of that, there's teams that need to improve significantly to compete with the top-level teams.
Other sports
Utah had a strong 2022-23 season for all its sports, especially women's sports, and will continue to have opportunities in the Big 12. In softball, Utah will have Oklahoma State standing in its way, but then it's a fairly balanced league for the remaining teams. Based on last season's results, Utah would have ranked second in softball RPI in the new Big 12.
In baseball, volleyball and women's soccer, to name a few more, Utah will have some work cut out for them to compete at a high level in the Big 12.
"This decision represents the best interests of the University of Utah, our student-athletes, coaches, staff, alumni and our tremendous fans, and we look forward to continuing our growth as a member of the Big 12 Conference beginning next year," Utah athletic director Mark Harlan said in a statement.
It's an opportunity that will help Utah grow, while remaining competitive in many sports where the Utes could potentially contend for a conference title from Day 1. While an adjustment to a new conference, Utah has made significant strides from its days in the Mountain West.
