The 1st-round games gave us another data point on the teams that survived; some of that new information has likely been under- or overemphasized. Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Saturday’s best 2nd-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Tournament crisscrosses blueblood programs and teams that have been for months ranked in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll with small-conference champs and down-ballot fives perhaps trending the right way in March. Let’s lay out a couple plausible upset scenarios currently underplayed by the betting lines.
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Saturday’s NCAA Tournament underdog picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:22 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.
MICHIGAN STATE +4.5 (-120) vs. North Carolina – 5:30 p.m. (CBS)
Michigan State (20-14) is the No. 9 seed in the West Region; North Carolina (28-7) is the No. 1. So, why do the books lay this one out so close? The line was 3.5 most of Friday and moved to 4.5 early Saturday
The Spartans advanced through the 1st round on a 69-51 triumph — as 1.5-point favorites — over Mississippi State Thursday. Michigan State went 10-for-23 (43.5%) from distance and had 3 players score in double figures. The win against the number marked Michigan’s State’s 3rd cover a row.
The Tar Heels are ranked 5th in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, and they backed that up accordingly with a 90-62 rout of Wagner Thursday. UNC covered the spread as a 25.5-point favorite, is 9-1 straight up (SU) over its last 10 games and has scored 90-plus in 3 of those contests.
But this is a clash of pace — with fast UNC and slow MSU — and the Spartans have gone 8-4 against the spread (ATS) when facing teams averaging 77 or more points per game. Against the 3 fastest teams in the Big Ten (Illinois, Iowa, Penn State) Michigan State went 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS.
MSU is back in the same barn that saw them shoot well from distance Thursday, and UNC has trended the wrong way in perimeter defense of late.
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TEXAS +6.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee – 8 p.m. (CBS)
The Longhorns (21-12) and Volunteers (25-8) will tussle in a Midwest Region 2nd-round game in Charlotte, and there is a decent amount of fade ammo to spread around to both sides here. Both had early exits in their respective conference tournaments and have analytic multi-game trend lines headed the wrong direction.
No. 7-seed Texas did cover a 3-point spread in a low-scoring 56-44, first-round contest against Colorado State Thursday. No. 2-seed Tennessee — the 6th-ranked team in the nation — routed Saint Peter’s 83-49 in its 1st-rounder. UT snapped a 2-game ATS losing streak, covering a 22-point spread against the Peacocks.
The Vols have 3 neutral-floor losses this season, and Tennessee’s defense has slipped a notch or 2 late of late. The Longhorns did not have a good offensive game Thursday, but they had looked improved at that end in other late-season games.
Expect a closer game than what the spread lays out.
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