Kentucky basketball NCAA Tournament projections entering finale at Tennessee

LEXINGTON — Kentucky basketball has a top-four NCAA Tournament seed squarely in its sights. With room to move up if it takes care of business Saturday and in the SEC Tournament next week. 

Bracket Matrix, which released its newest update Thursday, has the Wildcats solidly in the 4-seed range, with an average predicted seed of 4.22 (out of 90 brackets). UK has won four straight games, with its latest a 93-77 victory over Vanderbilt on senior night Wednesday at Rupp Arena. But with the Commodores the worst team in the SEC in terms of NET ranking, it did little for Kentucky and coach John Calipari, as Wednesday went down as a Quad 4 win. It's Quad 1 games that are crucial, as they're a key metric used by the tournament selection committee when it convenes to create this season's bracket.

As of Friday morning, UK's NET ranking is 20 — the same spot it was in before topping Vandy.

Bracketville, which published its new projections Friday morning, had the Wildcats as the 4-seed in the East Region, where they would take on No. 13 seed Princeton in the first round in Pittsburgh. Bracketologists.com, which only uses the NET rankings to fill out its bracket, projected the Wildcats as a No. 5 seed as of Thursday. BracketWAG.com, which released its newest bracket after Thursday's games, slotted Kentucky as the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region, where it would face 13-seed UC Irvine in the first round in Brooklyn, New York.

Here's a look at Kentucky's NCAA Tournament résumé as of Friday morning, as well as projections from a variety of national outlets:

Kentucky basketball tournament resume and NET ranking

NET ranking: 20

KenPom ranking: 18

Quad 1 record: 5-6

Quad 2 record: 2-1

Quad 3 record: 8-1

Quad 4 record: 7-0

ESPN NCAA Tournament projections for Kentucky basketball

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his new projections Friday morning. He placed UK as the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region. Lunardi has Kentucky heading to Pittsburgh to take on 13-seed Appalachian State in the first round.

Kentucky basketball in CBS Sports bracketology

CBS Sports writer Jerry Palm released his latest update Friday morning. He slotted Kentucky as the No. 5 seed in the West Region, traveling to Salt Lake City to square off with 12-seed Grand Canyon in the first round.

UK basketball bracketology from USA TODAY Sports

USA TODAY's Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith and Eddie Timanus combined for a bracket for the network, which was released Friday morning. USA TODAY projects UK as the East Region's 4-seed, heading west on the long trek to Spokane, Washington, to tussle with 13-seed Samford.

What's next for Kentucky basketball

Kentucky caps the 2023-24 regular season at Tennessee Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats will seek to avenge their 103-92 loss to the Volunteers on Feb. 3, when Tennessee became the first SEC foe to put up triple digits at Rupp in more than three decades.

Saturday's matchup will have wide-ranging implications beyond simply being the latest installment in UK's most-played rivalry. It will determine when Kentucky begins its SEC tourney run next week. (The Wildcats still are vying for a top-four seed and a double bye and enter Saturday in a four-way tie for second alongside Alabama, Auburn and South Carolina.) If nothing else, a win at Thompson-Boling Arena, where the Volunteers have lost just once this season, would be a major statement by the Wildcats to the selection committee — concluding the regular season with a convincing Quad 1 victory.

One thing that won't hang in the balance in Knoxville on Saturday: the league's regular-season title. Tennessee clinched that thanks to Wednesday's road triumph against South Carolina.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.