What happened in the NCAA Men's Tournament second round

This is another interesting strategic battle — and another matchup that tilts toward the favorite. You know about Iowa State’s defense. The Cyclones, who began their rise from the ashes of 2021 by focusing on creating utter chaos for opponents, are as disruptive as ever. Iowa State steals on 15.4 percent of possessions, which ranks second in the nation. (And raises the interesting question of how the heck UTEP, which ranked first, was only 18-16 this year.) Fun fact: There are 70 teams in D-I that didn’t get turnovers on 15.4 percent of possessions this season, let alone live-ball turnovers. Over the past six weeks, the Cyclones have had just one game where an opponent scored more than 1 point per possession — and that was against Houston, whom they mauled by 28 the next time they saw them.

Iowa State is extremely aggressive at the perimeter (and beyond), which not only hassles opponents into coughing up the ball but limits the effectiveness of their long-range shooting. And the Cyclones work the offensive boards, too (31.3 percent OR%, ranking 100th). We call teams that play this style “Gambling Giants,” and because they amass so many possessions, they are typically very safe in the early rounds of the tournament. Washington State, on the other hand, does not take many of the kinds of risks that longshots need to advance. The Cougars rank 271st at forcing turnovers and are a sub-300 team in their propensity to launch from behind the arc (3PA just 31.8 percent of FGA). Slingshot sees them as a poor long shot — and their principal statistical strength hurts them further in this matchup. Washington State does excel at grabbing offensive rebounds (32.9 percent OR%, and keep an eye on big man Isaac Jones). But strong-OR underdogs give Gambling Giants the least trouble of any clan of killers. Contests between members of these two families trigger upsets in just 18 percent of games.

The 10 most similar games to this matchup did produce three upsets, and show possible paths to a Washington State victory. Two years ago, Michigan won an 11-3 game where Tennessee’s 3-point shooting disappeared, and the Volunteers collapsed in the final minutes. But those Vols depended on bombs much more than these Cyclones do. In 2015, No. 8 seed N.C. State knocked off No. 1 seed Villanova by massively outshooting them on 2-point FGA. That’s probably the Cougars’ best shot, whether or not they can hold onto the ball — to take it to Iowa State inside, exploit second chances and give the Cyclones the same kind of trouble they faced this season in losses to Texas A&M, Baylor and Kansas State. But it’s not anything close to likely. Historically, 7 seeds have upset 2 seeds 31 percent of the time; Slingshot sees a significantly lower chance than that here.

Upset chance: 20 percent

Team in 16 words: An undeniable surprise, but deserving entrant, the Cougars are well-rounded and well-coached on both ends.

Record: 25-9 (14-6 Pac-12)

Coach: Kyle Smith (1-0)

Player to watch: Myles Rice (Pac-12 Freshman of the Year)

Strengths: Wazzu is a balanced group that finished the conference season top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency nationally. With the ball, Washington State attacks teams around the rim. More than half of its points come inside the arc. Though long-distance jacks aren’t the centerpiece of the offense, the Cougars are quite effective at making threes. Jaylen Wells, Myles Rice and Andrej Jakimovski can tear up defenses. On the opposite end, the Cougars bare their teeth, ranking among the top 40 teams in effective field-goal percentage defense.

Weaknesses: Wazzu’s most obvious shortcoming is at the charity stripe. It has made just 70.1 percent of its attempts. Close games will be a sweat. The Cougars only play bench players around 27.1 percent of the time. Depth is a problem. They’re unchallenging non-conference schedule (No. 318 non-con SOS) also raises doubts.

Outlook: If you wagered on Washington State to make the dance preseason, congrats on the newly acquired island in the Bahamas. Widely picked to finish in the Pac-12’s bottom half, the Cougars greatly exceeded expectations. Kyle Smith can coach his tail off. Given the Cougars’ slow grind (near the bottom of the country in adjusted tempo) and sharpness on both ends, they’re a Sweet 16 dark horse. Their road win at Arizona was no aberration.

—Brad Evans

Team in 16 words: An overachieving, defensive menace that can keep any game close.

Record: 28-7 (13-5 Big 12)

Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (3-4 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Tamin Lipsey (first-team All-Big 12)

Strengths: Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament and blew out Houston 69-41 in the championship game. Few teams exhaust an offense like the Cyclones. They’re constantly double-teaming opponents and swarming the ball, which results in turnovers — their 25.7 defensive turnover percentage is second nationally — and lots of 10-0 runs that sink opponents. Tamin Lipsey, a 6-foot-1 guard, is especially adept at steals. He has 16 games with at least three of them.

Weaknesses: Shot-making. If this team had a go-to scorer, it’d be a Final Four threat. But it can go long periods without a basket, whether inside the arc (51.7 percent on 2s) or beyond the arc (34.9 percent on 3-pointers). As is, the Cyclones must manufacture points and grind down opponents.

Outlook: Iowa State was picked seventh in the Big 12 preseason poll because its roster doesn’t have NBA talent or overwhelming size. But the Cyclones defied those expectations. Lipsey is an all-conference guard and Milan Momcilovic presents matchup issues, but that’s about it. Iowa State was unbeaten at home and crushed overmatched foes. But against good teams in a neutral-court setting? Was the Big 12 tourney an aberration or a sign of things to come?

—Mike Miller

SPOKANE, Wash. — Brian Dutcher customarily does not prep for any team but the next team San Diego State plays. This left the Aztecs coach playing catch-up Friday: He watched Yale’s upset win against Auburn. He watched a handful of Ivy League games. He watched the Bulldogs’ games against Kansas and Gonzaga.

From that, the guy who runs the team with the nation’s No. 10 defense deduced his second-round opponent is “super dangerous.”

The Aztecs acted accordingly in their workout Saturday.

“This was not a walkthrough,” Dutcher said at Spokane Arena, shortly after his team finished its allotted time on the floor.

Probably would’ve been this way for Auburn, too, with a day off between games. But the stats (Yale has five starters averaging double-figures) and the scenery on Friday (Bulldogs guard John Poulakidas erupting for 28 points no matter what Auburn did defensively) maybe upped the urgency a bit. If that’s possible at a place like San Diego State, which treats each defensive possession as if the fate of the universe rests upon it.

“We went hard in practice today against all their actions, we went hard with our offenses, what we thought would work,” Dutcher said. “We prepped hard on the floor and then we'll prep hard in the film room when we get back. So we will be fully prepared. Now, that doesn't guarantee us a win. But it gives us a chance.”

Team in 16 words: The transfer portal and go-to guy RJ Davis have given the Tar Heels new life.

Record: 28-7 (17-3 ACC)

Coach: Hubert Davis (6-1 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four)

Player to watch: RJ Davis (ACC Player of the Year)

Strengths: The Tar Heels have one of the elite guards in the country in RJ Davis — who has thrived with the departure of Caleb Love. Armando Bacot has a decreased offensive role, and he’s accepted it. Two transfers — Harrison Ingram (Stanford), Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) — and reclassified freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau have made the Tar Heels legit Final Four contenders again.

Weaknesses: Bacot hasn’t been nearly as effective this season on the offensive end, and tends to struggle against length and athleticism. While the Tar Heels have been improved defensively, the backcourt is small — and Cadeau is still a freshman who isn’t much of a threat to shoot it.

Outlook: This team has chemistry, which was clearly lacking a year ago. They have floor-spacing with the addition of Ingram and Ryan. Davis uses his bench this year, and they have a guy who can go get a basket — and is efficient in doing so. This is a group that came into the season with something to prove, and they have done so — with improved defense, winning on the road and claiming the ACC regular-season title.

—Jeff Goodman

Spectrum Center is 75 percent Carolina or so. If Michigan State happens to win this game, it will be a ghost town for UT vs. UT. Angry fans of bluebloods don't stick around to watch any more of a tournament if their team has been bounced from it.

Team in 16 words: Tom Izzo’s inconsistent Spartans show flashes of potential but often come up short in big moments.

Record: 20-14 (10-10 Big Ten)

Coach: Tom Izzo (56-24 in NCAA Tournament, 8 Final Fours, 1 national title)

Player to watch: Tyson Walker (second-team All-Big Ten)

Strengths: For all of its flaws, Michigan State has flashes of dominance. Those flashes usually begin in the fastbreak, where the Spartans average 14.3 points per game, the 22nd-best mark in the nation. A.J. Hoggard, Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman are a trio of guards who can create good looks, so long as they take them, while veteran Malik Hall finished the regular season with one of his strongest stretches. The defense holds opponents to 65.9 points per game, yet Michigan State too often needs leading scorer Tyson Walker to put the game away.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to trust this Michigan State team. The Spartans can’t get over shooting troubles and, despite plenty of good looks, average 73.5 points per game (10th in the Big Ten). Their 46.3 percent field goal mark ranks 80th nationally, while their 35.9 mark from 3-point range ranks just outside the top 60. Ball security is another issue and the Spartans must stay out of foul trouble.

Outlook: Michigan State entered the NCAA Tournament on the back of a gritty loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals — the second time in March the Spartans played the Boilermakers to the end. Resume-building wins against Baylor, Illinois and a pesky Indiana State team show how the pieces can come together with aggressive rebounding and defense. But the X-factor will be whether Michigan State can get more of its shots to go through.

—Jayna Bardahl

Arizona's Caleb Love and Gonzaga's Ryan Nembhard are both going to the Sweet 16. And it's possible they could both be in the same regionals as their former team. North Carolina — whom Love memorably led to the 2022 national title game before a sour 2023 season led to his transfer — is about to play Michigan State for the right to go to Los Angeles in the West Regional. And coming up tonight, Creighton will play Oregon. Nembhard surprised many by transferring out of Creighton, which nearly made the Final Four last year, to go to Gonzaga. The Bluejays could see the Zags across the bracket in Detroit if they win tonight.

Iowa's win today does ensure one thing: Monday night's second-round game will be Caitlin Clark's last in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

Tickets to this weekend's games sold out in 30 minutes.

SALT LAKE CITY — Woof. What an outing by the Zags. Down one at halftime, Gonzaga comes out in the second half and obliterates Kansas, 89-68. The Zags shoot 61 percent from the field and put on an offensive showcase. Kansas, at one point, had four straight 3s to end the first half and start the second. That was short-lived.

Gonzaga, with its bevy of versatile big men, looks like it will be a handful for Zach Edey and No. 1 seed Purdue in the Sweet 16 — assuming Purdue beats Utah State tomorrow night. That makes nine straight Sweet 16 appearances for the Bulldogs, a heck of a feat.

OMAHA, Neb. — As one would expect with Iowa State playing about 2.5 hours away from Ames this place is going to be packed with Cyclones fans. It felt like everywhere I looked this morning there was someone in Iowa State gear. The arena is certainly shaping up that way so far. The crowd let out a loud cheer as the Cyclones started warming up.

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only two teams have made nine straight Sweet 16s: North Carolina, which did it from 1984-1993, and Duke, which did it from 1998-2006. If Gonzaga finishes out Kansas — and it leads by 22 at the under-4 timeout — the Zags will have matched that record streak of nine straight years. (And that doesn't include the canceled 2020 tournament, in which Mark Few's team would have been a No. 1 seed).

It's a mind-boggling display of consistent success in an event known for its randomness. And this is one of the most unlikely years of the streak, as Gonzaga was a bubble team until at least mid-February and needed wins on the road at Kentucky and Saint Mary's to secure its at-large bid. This also means the first two teams in the 2024 Sweet 16 are coached by Few and his former longtime lieutenant, Arizona's Tommy Lloyd. Gonzaga could face Purdue in Detroit next week in a rematch of the Maui Invitational game that the Boilermakers won 73-63. But these Zags have clearly improved by leaps and bounds since November.

CHARLOTTE — It’s finally almost tipoff between No. 1 North Carolina and No. 9 Michigan State in the round of 32, here at Spectrum Center. (Side note: Not to belabor the point, but what sense is there in having pre-noon games in Salt Lake City… but programs of this caliber sitting around waiting all day? We digress, but c’mon.)

About the matchup: Both teams have dynamic lead guard play — R.J. Davis for UNC, Tyson Walker for MSU — and stout frontcourts. The determining factor, then? Look for who, between Michigan State’s Malik Hall and North Carolina’s Harrison Ingram, can make more of an impact. MSU coach Tom Izzo even told reporters yesterday that those two might decide the game. Here’s how they compared in their respective teams’ first-round games:

• Hall vs. Mississippi State: 10 points on 4-of-8 shooting, five rebounds, five turnovers, one steal
• Ingram vs. Wagner: 9 points on 4-of-7 shooting, five rebounds, one turnover, one steal, one assist

As for the history between these schools, there’s plenty — most recently, facing off in the 2009 national championship game, which UNC won handily. It’s hard to believe, but the Tar Heels are actually 4-0 all-time in the Big Dance vs. Izzo, and 5-0 all-time vs. the Spartans. Could that change today? It’s certainly possible, especially given Michigan State’s coach and his NCAA Tournament history. Izzo is 15-4 in the round of 32 all-time, and 24-7 in the second game of all tournament weekends.

Just an absolute offensive clinic by Gonzaga in the second half. The Zags have made 11 of their 12 field-goal attempts (that's 91.7 percent, if you're counting) and all four of their 3-point tries. Mark Few's team ranks eighth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and has been even better since the win at Kentucky on Feb. 17 — third nationally, per Bart Torvik's sorting tool. It's astonishing to see them do this in an NCAA Tournament game against a Bill Self-coached team, even if Kansas is shorthanded.